Saturday April 30 MLB Picks

MLB RECORD APRIL 24-29:  12-5

Friday April 29 picks recap 5-0

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs (Cubs -1.5,-140) Cubs won 6-1

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (Over 9 Runs, -115 ) Tigers won 9-2

Rockies@ Arizona Diamondbacks (Rockies Moneyline +128) Rockies won 9-0

Rockies@ Arizona Diamondback (Over 8.5 Runs -105) Rockies won 9-0

Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Marines (Mariners Moneyline -160) Mariners won 1-0

 

Saturday April 30 Picks

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (Tigers Moneyline-135)

Tigers: Zimmerman (4-0, 0.35) Twins: Duffey (0-0, 2.25)

Jordan Zimmerman has been on fire for the Tigers. The former National opened the season with 24.1 scoreless innings, which is the longest scoreless streak to begin a season by any pitcher in Tiger history.  Facing a less experienced Tyler Duffey, I like the Tigers to win here.

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Over 8 Runs -110)

Reds: Simon (0-2, 16.39) Pirates: Liriano (1-1, 4.64)

The Reds and Pirates have split their first four meetings this season, with only one of those games going over six total runs scored. However, the one game that did feature 11 runs scored was when these same two pitchers, Alfredo Simon and Francisco Liriano faced each other. Even though Simon was solid in that Apr. 8th match-up, he has not been sharp in his three starts since. There has not been less than nine runs scored in any of the  four starts Simon has made this season.  As for Liriano, nine runs or more have been scored in three out of his four starts. 8 Runs is a low number for this pitching match-up, expect this game to go Over.

 

Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Marines (Royals Moneyline -110)

Royals: Ventura (2-0, 2.35)  Mariners: Miley (1-2, 7.04)

Mariners edged out a 1-0 victory over the Royals last night behind their ace King Felix. Despite losing, the Royals pitching staff held the Mariners to only one hit on Saturday night.

Current Mariner hitters only have a .175 BA against Yordano Ventura collectively for their careers. Royals held their own yesterday despite a starting pitching disadvantage, but tonight the match-up is in their favor, and the Royals have the bullpen to back Ventura up.  It is also worth noting that Royals catcher Salvador Perez is 5 for 6 in his career against Wade Miley with a homer run, which would make him a strong fantasy play. I like the Royals to win.

 

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Friday April 29 MLB Picks

MLB Record April 24-28: 7-5

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs (Cubs -1.5,-140)

Braves: Blair (0-1, 5.06) Cubs: Lester (2-1, 1.98)

14 of the Cubs 16 wins this season have been by more then one run. The Cubs are as hot as any team in baseball and the Braves have been terrible. The value is not good picking the Cubs Money line, but at -140, you have to like the Cubs here to win by more then a run.

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (Over 9 Runs, -115 )

Tigers: Fulmer (MLB Debut) Twins: Hughes (1-3, 3.91)

Phil Hughes has a 4.79 ERA and 3-4 record in his last 8 starts against Detroit and Miguel Cabrera has terrorized Hughes in his career (.447 BA 5HR 13RBI).

It’s hard to predict what the 23 year old Micheal  Fulmer will do for the Tigers in his big league debut, but I’d be surprised if he goes past six innings. I expect the Tigers bullpen to pitch more then  3 innings in this game, which I do not expect to be a pitchers duel. With the Twins offense starting to come alive, I’m picking OVER 9 RUNS.

 

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondback

Two picks: Rockies Moneyline +128 and Over 8.5 Runs -105

Rockies: Chatwood (2-2, 3.47)  Diamondbacks: Ray (1-0, 3.80)

Very even match-up, but good +28 juice is on the Rockies side. Chatwood allowed 1 earned run in 6.1 innings pitched in a 4-3 win against Arizona on April 6.  Robbie Ray is a good young pitcher but was hit hard by the Pirates in his last outing. I like the Rockies +128 to win this game. Also with the 5th and 6th highest scoring teams in MLB meeting up, I like this game to go over 8.5 runs.

 

Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Marines (Mariners Moneyline -160)

Royals: Medlen (1-1, 6.00)  Mariners: Hernandez (1-2, 1.80)

Royals are always tough and have a great pen, but the chance to take King Felix at home with this much of an edge over his opposing starting pitcher is why I like Seattle to win.

 

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Wed-Thursday April 27/28 MLB Pick

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies (OVER 10.5, -120)

(Pirates: J. Niese: 3-0, 4.24) (Rockies: J. Gray 0-0, 9.00)

10.5 is a lot of runs, but the pitching match-up here is not stellar. Pittsburgh currently leads the National League in batting average. Seven out of the Rockies 11 home games have gone 11 runs or over this season.  I am taking the OVER 10.5 Runs.

April 28

Milwaukee Brewers  @ Chicago Cubs (Cubs -1.5,-160)

****WAS POSTPONED FOR WEATHER ON APRIL 27, PICK USED AGAIN FOR APR. 28***

(Brewers: T. Jungmann 0-3, 8.47) Cubs: J. Arrieta (4-0, 0.87)

Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers disappointed us last night as a heavy favorite in a 6-3 loss to the Marlins. The Dodgers loss dropped our baseball bets to a 3-2 finish on Tuesday showing that nothing is guaranteed. Still, today’s Cubs-Brewers game is a very lopsided match-up, even more then yesterdays Dodgers-Marlins game.

There is nothing genius about this pick, its simply Jake Arrieta against the Brewers, and the Brewers are not rolling out an ace of their own. Taylor Jungmann, walked six batters in four innings his last start against the Twins, and his future in the Brewers rotation could be in jeopardy if he does not improve soon.  Arrieta is coming off of a no hitter in his last start against the Reds, and has not allowed a run in three of his four starts this season.

The Cubs are such heavy favorites that the money line does not have much value.  Going with the Cubs at -1.5 runs, in which looks like as much of a  sure blow out on paper that you can get in baseball. There’s never any guarantees, but this match-up is too appealing to pass on.

 

 

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Tuesday April 26- MLB Picks (Betting on 4 Aces)

4 Aces with favorable match-ups headline Tuesdays night games..

Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves (Red Sox Moneyline -170)

Red Sox: D. Price (0-2,  7.06)  Braves: M. Wisler (0-1, 3.10)

Winless after his first 4 starts, David Price is due for a quality start after getting rocked against his former Tampa Bay team in his last outing.  The Braves rank last in the National League in runs scored and 14th in batting average. Tuesday at Atlanta is a perfect opportunity for Price to get back on track and I expect him to pick up his first win as a Red Sox.2000px-Playing_card_diamond_A.svgDavid Price

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners (Astros Moneyline -128)

Astros:  D. Keuchel (2-2, 3.71) Mariners: N. Karns (1-1, 5.28)

The Astros are off to a poor 6-14 start, but the Astros bats should be able to produce against Karns.  I’m putting my faith in the AL defending Cy Young winner here and taking Houston.

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 Miami Marlins @Los Angeles Dodgers  (Dodgers -1.5 runs, -130)

Marlins:  T. Koehler (1-2, 4.80 ) Dodgers: C. Kershaw (2-0, 1.50)

6a017c3697a248970b01a510f3f0ef970c-pi.png2000px-Ace_of_hearts.svg.pngKoehler is a very good pitcher for the Marlins, but the Dodgers are the better team and playing at home. Also to keep it simple, Clayton Kershaw is always a good bet in the regular season. Moneyline bets on the Dodgers do not offer much upside with betting odds ranging between -250 to -300, so I am taking the Dodgers to win by more then one run.  Predicting a Dodgers win along the lines of 5-2.

Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (White Sox Moneyline -120)

White Sox: C. Sale (4-0, 1.80)  Blue Jays: R. Dickey (1-2, 6.10)

MLB: JUL 19 Royals at White Sox

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The current Blue Jays roster has a cumulative .203 batting average all time against Chris Sale. Sale comes in without allowing an earned run in his last two starts. White Sox have won 6 out of 7, and look like they could be a surprise contender in the AL Central. Against RA Dickey, I like the White Sox on the road behind Chris Sale.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies (Pittsburgh Moneyline -155)

Pirates: G. Cole (1-2, 2.70)  Rockies: J. De La Rosa (1-2, 9.87)

Coors Field is always a tough place to pitch, but this is a favorable match-up for Gerrit Cole and the Pirates.  Current Pittsburgh batters have an all-time .322 lifetime batting average against the Rockies starter De La Rosa.

 

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Monday April 25-MLB picks of the day

Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (Indians Moneyline -150)

Indians: D. Salazar (2-1, 1.47)  Twins: T. Milone (0-1, 5.87)

The Indians are coming off a huge road series sweep victory over the Detroit Tigers. Batters on Cleveland’s current roster have hit Milone collectively at better then a .300 clip.  Salazar, comes in with a 2-2 record and 3.86 ERA in his career at Target field and is off to a great start this season. Minnesota also had 7 pitchers make relief appearances in Sunday’s 16 inning lose at Washington. With Salazar’s power arm and Twins offensive struggles this season, sounds like a good recipe for the Tribe to continue their road winning streak.

 

Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves (Atlanta Moneyline +135)

Boston: R. Porcello (3-0, 4.66)  Braves: J. Teheran (0-2, 5.64)

I like the opportunity here to take the Braves as an underdog. With the +135 odds, if you lay down $100, you have a chance to get back $135.  I know the Braves are an atrocious 1-10 at home this season and have stunk, but they will not continue to lose 91% of their home games this season. Porcello is off to a better start this season then Teheran, but the pitching match-up does not favor Boston as much as the early season stats may indicate.  Also take into account that the Braves played a home day game on Sunday, while the Red Sox played a 12 inning game at Houston that ran past 1am EST time.  Boston starter Henry Owens only lasted 3.1 innings on Sunday Night Baseball and the Red Sox were forced to go deep into their bullpen.  The Braves are well worth the risk here as a home underdog.

 

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Sunday April 24- MLB picks of the day

PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers (Phillies Moneyline -105)

Phillies: J. Eickhoff (1-2, 1.89) Brewers W. Peralta (0-3, 8.35)

Despite a 1-2 start, Jerad Eickhoff has pitched well to start the season for the Phillies holding a 1.89 ERA.  Eickhoff’s biggest problem has been run support. The Phillies rank dead last in Major League Baseball through 17 games in runs scored, and 29th in team batting average (.219). The Brewers have not been great offensively either, currently batting  only .224 as a team.  Brewers starter Wily Peralta has struggled to start the season. Peltra was better in last outing against against the Twins but still comes in with a 8.35 ERA.  Due to the strong pitching advantage, I like the Phillies -105 here.

Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals (UNDER 7.5 RUNS -115)

Twins: T. Duffey (2016 debut)  Nationals: S. Strasburg 3-0, 1.25)

MLB: Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

In the last six games the Twins offense has started to gain momentum, going 4-1-1  against the over/under, this came after failing to score more then 3 runs in any of their first 9 games to start the season.  Tanner Roark cooled down the Twins offense Saturday, striking out 15 Twins  batters and leading the way in a 2-0 Nationals victory.  I expect the Twins to struggle again on Sunday against Stephen Strasburg.  Minnesota sends Tyler Duffey to the mound, who will be making his 2016 debut after being called up from AAA.  Duffey, was solid in 2015 with 53Ks in 58 IP and Washington will be facing the young pitcher for the first time. Expect a low scoring Nationals win here.  Go with the UNDER 7.5.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds  (Cubs Moneyline -165)

Cubs: J. Hammel (2-0, 1.00)  Reds: A. Simon (0-1, 12.15) 

On April 13, the Cubs got to Alfredo Simon for 5 earned runs, and he only lasted 2/3 innings. Simon followed up with a poor relief appearance on April  (1 IP  4R 3ER).  At -170, the Cubs are a clear favorite. Even without turning a huge profit with the odds, I feel comfortable taking the Cubs -165 who come in with a major league best 105 runs scored.

Kris-Bryant-Anthony-Rizzo
Thru the first 18 games, Anthony Rizzo (right), has more RBI 17, then hits 12.

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2016 American League Predictions

AL East

1. Toronto Blue Jays +175

2. Boston Red Sox

3. New York Yankees

4. Baltimore Orioles

5. Tampa Bay

AL Central

1.Detroit Tigers (+400)

2. Kansas City Royals

3. Cleveland Indians

4. Chicago White Sox

5.Minnesota Twins

AL West

1. Houston Astros +125

2. Los Angeles Angels

3. Seattle Mariners

4. Texas Rangers

5. Oakland Athletics

Wildcard teams: Kansas City and  Boston

AL Champions: Houston Astros +700