Tuesday July 26 Free Picks

Detroit Tigers (Pelfrey 3-9, 4.78 ) at Boston Red Sox (Wright 12-5, 2.67)

detroit-tigers-vs-new-york-yankees---april-9-2016-3f67404d299e6253
Yesterday, we started the week with a 3-2 start. Today leading the way is a repeat of one of our successful plays from last night by playing the over/under on the Tigers and Red Sox.

Both the Tigers and Red Sox have been strong plays on the over this season. Boston ranks fifth in all of MLB in percentage of games going over, while the Detroit Tigers rank ninth. The recent trends however have told a different story, the Over is 2-12-1 in Detroit’s last 15 games and also only 6-9 in Boston’s last 15.

Expectations for Tiger’s starter Mike Pelfrey tend to be pretty low each time he steps on the mound, but Pelfrey has had a solid July posting a 3.72 ERA over four starts.

Steven Wright had two of his lesser starts in July, but overall has been very good this season. In his last outing Wright allowed only one earned run, while striking out nine batters over eight innings against the Minnesota Twins. Overall, Wright has allowed more than three earned runs in only three of his 13 starts this season.

At -190 I am not betting on the Red Sox, even though I am leaning on them winning this game. The alternative line of under 12.5 can also get you -195 value at the moment.

My play here is the UNDER 11 runs (-110). Last night I felt the over of 10 was too high and played the over, the total ended up at six. For the second night in a row, I believe that the Over is too high.

 

Other Picks for Today
✅ Over 8.5 Cincinnati Reds San Francisco Giants EVEN
✅ Houston Astros ML Over New York Yankees (-140)
✅ Baltimore Orioles ML Over Colorado Rockies (-185)

 

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July 21 (Dodgers at Nationals/ Orioles at Yankees)

Our record this week so far is 8-4-1, and that has not come from riding heavy favorites. There are two early games both featuring contending teams. Let’s start the day off with some extra cash!

 

Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals

Dodgers (Urias 1-2, 4.95) Washington (Strasburg 13-0, 2.51)

 

Washington is 16-1 when Strasburg starts. Strasburg has not allowed more than four earned runs all season and current Dodgers have a lifetime .182 batting average against him with zero home runs in 66 at bats.

The Dodgers have won Urias’ last four starts, including a 4-3 win against Washington on June 22. However Urias did struggle in his last start where he allowed five earned runs over three and two-thirds innings against the Orioles.

I am taking the Nationals -181 and Strasburg over the Dodgers.

 

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

Orioles (Tillman 13-2, 3.29) Yankees (Sabathia 5-7, 3.94)

After a great start things have taken a negative turn for Sabathia who is 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA over his last four starts.

Baltimore starter Chris Tillman is 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA in road games this season and has allowed only one earned run in each of his last three starts. The Orioles are also 9-0 when Tillman starts against the AL East.

The Orioles currently have several key injuries with Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Matt Wieters and Adam Jones all as question marks. The Orioles have only scored six runs over their last five games, despite not facing one pitcher with an ERA close to under 4.

Orioles Moneyline +115

Under 9 runs -125

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July 19 Full MLB Picks

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

(Twins: Milone 2-2, 5.23) Tigers (5-10, 6.75)

The Detroit Tigers have had their way with the Minnesota Twins this season winning all seven match-ups up to this point. When first taking a look it is easy to pencil the Tigers in as winning their eight straight game against the Twins, but of course things are often not as simple as they seem.

 

The Tigers are sending Annibal Sanchez to the mound. Sanchez’ career numbers against the Twins are very impressive, 4-3 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, however Sanchez is currently only a shell of the pitcher that the Twins faced in the past. Detroit has lost its last nine games that Sanchez has started with his last win as a starter coming on April 28 against Oakland.

Tommy Milone is coming in off of a two game winning streak where he has received a total of 26 runs of support. Current Tigers have a .356 career batting average against Milone and the Tigers will need to slug their way to victory. Detroit has now gone eight straight games without scoring over four runs, they will definitely need over four to win this game. Tommy Milone did win at Comerica Park last season in his only start their and was 2-1 against the Tigers overall.

I expect a slug fest and I am playing the over, even at 10 runs. The game is a toss up, but+134 is good value to bet against Sanchez. I am taking the Twins in the upset.

Prediction: Twins 7 Tigers 5

 

 

Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds

(Braves: Jenkins 0-1, 4.50) (Reds: Reed 0-4, 8.39)

Neither Tyrell Jenkins nor Cody Reed has much success yet in their young careers as starting pitchers, and tonight both young arms will be seeking their first career win.

 

Reds started Cody Reed is winless in nine career starts, while Braves starter Tyrell Jenkins will be making only his third career and second
start of the season. In his only start of the season Jenkins allowed one earned run in 4.2 innings in what led to a 4-3 Braves loss to the Phillies. Jenkins is yet to throw over 64 pitches in any game this season.

The Reds have allowed at least five runs in each start that Reed has made this season, with every game having at least a combined total of nine runs scored. Reed has only gone beyond five innings in one start, but he will hope for better results against a Braves offense that has struggled lately.

Atlanta has only scored over three runs twice in their last 12 games, however those two games came against south paw starters Chris Sale and Jose Quintana of the Chicago White Sox.

For two winless pitches, the -148 seems like a high price tag for the Reds to be worth the wager to me. I expect that the bullpens will have a lot to do with the final outcome of this game and the Reds bullpen is not very good, coming in with a 5.56 ERA on the season. Despite the recent struggles today is a great opportunity for the Atlanta offense to come alive.

With so much uncertainty around this game bet at your own risk. However, I am going with Atlanta. With things being able to go either way, the best value bet is with the +136 Braves as an underdog.

The overs are 52-33-8 in Cincinnati Reds games this season, which is the second highest percentage of games going over among all teams in Major League Baseball. If the over/under drops back down to 9 runs before the first pitch I may make a play on the over, but at the moment 9.5 runs is not a number that I am as comfortable with. In my crystal ball I would predict a 5-4 Braves win.

Stay tuned and good luck!

 

 

 

Full Picks

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline (-132.0)  

Houston Astros moneyline (-163.0)

Over (+10.0) Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers adjust +112.0

Minnesota Twins moneyline (+134.0)

Atlanta Braves moneyline (+144.0)

Toronto Blue Jays moneyline (-193.0)

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July 6- Reds at Cubs and Tigers at Indians

Wednesday has a slate of day games that maybe beginning before you take your lunch break. We’ve been on a pretty good run lately and there are two early games where I believe the underdogs are worth the risk to pick up some extra units.

Remember, when betting on underdogs going only 50% can turn a huge profit. For example if you bet on a +115 underdog you will profit if you can pick at a 47% success rate. When betting on a +160 underdog you only need to hit 39% of the time.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (12:10 pm est)

Tigers (Fulmer 8-2, 2.17) Indians (Tomlin 9-1, 3.21)

 

The Indians dominance of the Tigers this season has been astonishing. The Tigers are still four games over .500 despite being 0-11 against Cleveland. Josh Tomlin will be making his fourth start of the season against Detroit, so far he is 3-0 with a 2.61 earned run average against the Tigers. Tomlin is also 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA in day games and Cleveland is 13-2 overall when he has started this season.

The Tigers will counter with rookie Michael Fulmer who is one of the biggest snubs off of the American League all-star team. The Tigers are 10-2 when Fulmer starts this season with one of those loses coming to Cleveland on May 5 in his second career start. Fullmer has allowed a total of three earned runs over his last eight starts, good for a 0.53 ERA over that span. For all you sabermetrics guys out their, Fullmer is also ranked third among all American League pitchers this season with 3.16 wins above replacement.

I came across an interesting stat that was quoted by ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Schoenfield stated, “ If we hypothesize that these teams are otherwise equal (Detroit’s winning percentage when not playing the Indians is over .600), the odds of one team winning 11 in a row over the other would be .00049 percent.”

I’m taking a chance here and going with the underdog Detroit Tigers +115 to finally break their losing streak to Cleveland.

The Indians have not allowed more than four runs as a team in Tomlin’s last six starts. The Tigers have allowed more than two runs as a team only once in Fulmer’s last seven starts. Even though both of these teams games go over more than 54% of the time, I am also leaning towards under 8.5 runs due to the pitching match-ups, although the bullpens could put this at risk late.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (2:20 pm est)

Reds (DeSclafani 2-0, 1.78) Cubs (Warren 3-1, 4.56)

The Cubs are 10-2 against the Reds and not one game has yet gone under; the overs are 10-0-2. The Reds snapped a five game losing streak to the Cubs yesterday with a 9-5 win as a +260 underdog. The Reds are never going to be favored over the Cubs, but I think today is a great time to take a chance on Cincinnati +160.

The Cubs are sending Adam Warren to the mound who despite his 3-1 record will be making his first career big league start. He did post a 4.15 ERA in two Triple-A starts this season over 8.2 innings.

Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his five starts this season.
Betting on the Reds is always a risk, but at +160, I feel that this is a risk worth taking.

Good luck today. I know that both the Tigers and Reds have struggled against their opponent this season, but I like both of their chances to break the trend today.

 

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves- July 1 Prediction

Marlins (Nicolino 2-4, 5.17 ERA) Braves (Teheran 3-7, 2.46 ERA)

Julio Teheran has had tough luck at home this season. The 25 year old right hander is winless in nine starts at Turner Field his season where he is an 0-4 record despite a 2.80 earned run average. Teheran will come in carrying a 23 consecutive scoreless inning streak. Teheran has 1.72 earned run average in his last 13 starts.

Marlins starter Justin Nicolino had a 6.89 ERA in three June starts, but he has had past success against the Braves. Nicotine is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA all time against the Braves.

Obviously the Braves offense has been a huge problem this year, which is why Teheran has a 3-7 record. The Braves production against left handed pitching this season also is a cause for doubt. However, I like the value here and I’m taking Atlanta -113. I think Teheran will be lights out once again and the Braves will provide enough run support to pull this one out.

 

My other free play for tonight: Detroit Tigers Money line -115 over Tampa Bay

Pick Cleveland +112 as the “Dog of the Day”

Indians (Tomlin 9-1, 3.32) Blue Jays (Stroman 6-4, 5.33)

MLB: Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
Apr 27, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Josh Tomlin (43) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Indians are the hottest team in baseball and hotter than they have ever been since 1951. That is the last time the Tribe had a 13 game winning streak. The last seven Cleveland wins all came on the road. Of course no team can win everyday in baseball, so odds markers may think this is the perfect time for the Tribe to stumble.

Value is very important in baseball betting when you can find it. Think about a stud pitcher like Clayton Kershaw who is usually favored -250 to -325 everytime he pitches. If you ride Kershaw each start it only takes one loss to wipe out your profits from two and maybe even three of his previous wins.

 

Currently the Cleveland Indians are +112 underdogs to Toronto. How often do you get to take a team on a 13 game winning streak as an underdog? With those odds you would expect a decisive advantage for Toronto on the mound, but this is not the case.

Marcus Stroman has allowed four earned runs or more in five of his last six starts, his overall earned run average during this span is 8.44. Stroman has a 5.90 earned run average in eight home starts this season and a 5.27 earned run average in the nine day games he has started. As a team Toronto has dropped seven of their past 11 games.

Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin is 5-0 with a 2.76 earned run average on the road this season. Current Blue Jays have a career .214 batting average against Tomlin.

Cleveland is 9-6 against the American League East on the season. Toronto is 5-9 against the American League Central.

Maybe Friday will be the afternoon that the Indians amazing streak finally comes to an end. But as hot as the Indians are right now, I don’t see taking the Blue Jays as favorites as the right play.

Here is a chance to pick an underdog that is on fire who is also coming in with the starting pitching advantage. Take Cleveland as the money line +112 underdog here.

 

 

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