2016 World Series Game 3 Picks

Currently I am 3-0 on World Series plays!  If you want to hear my picks to improve to 5-0 click on the video below!

 Game 3 –Indians: Tomlin (Regular Season 13-9, 4.40 ERA) (Postseason: 2-0, 2.53 ERA)   AT   Cubs: Hendricks (Regular Season: 16-8 , 2.13 ERA) (Postseason: 1-1, 1.65 ERA)

 

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2016 World Series Game 2- Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Indians

Game 1 Result: Indians 6 Cubs 0

My Game 1 Picks : UNDER 6.5 runs (-110)  WIN

Cleveland +1.5 runs (-168) WIN

OVERALL 2016 PLAYOFF RECORD 20-13

Units 26.48

https://sportswatchmonitor.com/standings/mlb

 Game 2 – Chicago Cubs: Arrieta (18-8 , 3.10 ERA) Indians: Bauer (12-8, 4.26) 

The Indians improved their postseason record to 6-1 as underdogs last night, while the Under improved to 8-1 in Indians games.

Tonight the Indians will send Trevor Bauer to the mound looking to take a 2-0 series lead. Bauer’s impact in game two is a huge question mark after he could only throw 21 pitches on Oct. 17 before being forced to leave the game due to excessive bleeding from his finger.  Six Indians relievers then came to pitch 8 1/3 inning  combine while allowing only two runs,  leading the Tribe to a 4-2 victory over Toronto.

The Cubs have dropped both of Jake Arrieta’s starts this post season along with Arrieta’s last three road starts overall.  The Over is 12-2 in Arrieta’s last 14 road starts. Also the Cubs are just 4-9 in Arrieta’s last 13 starts against a team with a winning record.

No matter how much a match-up does not favor them on paper, it’s getting tough to bet against Cleveland, because they have heavily reward bettors with their underdog value as they continue to win. I have no idea what to expect out of Trevor Bauer tonight and Andrew Miller is most likely not going to be available out of the Cleveland bullpen.

The Cubs are currently -143 moneyline favorites. Personally I do not think that’s good value based on the way the Indians are playing at home and the recently inconsistencies from Arrieta on the road.

Bauer’s first postseason start was the Indians only game that went above the over/under line this postseason this season. I honestly can see anything going tonight.

My favorite play for this game is actually OVER 3.5 Runs at the 5 inning line.

Enjoy the game!

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2016 World Series Game 1- Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Indians

The 2016 World Series is here with one of the most historical intriguing match-ups that anyone could ask for. The Chicago Cubs are looking to break a 107 championship drought while the Cleveland Indians hope to end a 67 year title drought of their own.

Personally I come into the World Series with a 18-13 record and up 19.48 units ($974 for just a $50 per unit bettor) during the MLB playoffs. Currently I am 6-2 on my plays for Chicago Cubs games and 4-3 on plays for Cleveland Indians games during the post season.

Game 1 – Chicago Cubs: Lester (19-5, 2.44) Indians: Kluber 18-9, 3.14) 

Jon Lester will lead the way for the Cubs tonight, who will be playing in their first World Series game since 1945. So far this postseason Lester is 2-0 with a 0.85 ERA and Chicago has won all three of his starts . On the road during  the regular season Lester was 9-3 with a 3.17 ERA.

Cleveland’s ace Corey Kluber is  2-1 with a 0.98 ERA in three  starts this post season. Kluber is also  11-2 with a 2.20 ERA in 15 career inter-league starts.

The Cubs are favored tonight  and in the series. Chicago comes into the series with a  5-0 postseason record as a money line favorite. The Indians however have really embraced being counted out by the experts this postseason. Cleveland has a 5-1 postseason record when the are the underdog.

The Over is 5-4-1 in Cubs games this post-season. The Over is 1-7 in Indians games this post season.

On paper it’s hard not to like the Cubs, but but with the Cleveland Cavaliers raising their championship banner tonight the atmosphere will be electric, as if Game 1 of the World Series would need any extra excitement.

The Indians were 53-28 during the regular season at home and a 4-0 in the postseason.

Overall both of these teams are excellent and anything can happen at this point of the season.  My favorite play for tonight is UNDER 6.5 runs (-110) and Cleveland +1.5 runs (-168).

 

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Oct. 10, 2016 MLB Division Series Picks

 NLDS Game 3 Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers (Series 1-1) 4:00pm EST 

Nationals: Gonzalez (11-11, 4.57) Dodgers: Maeda (16-11,3.48) 

Game 3 heads to Los Angeles, with no extra day off for travel due to Saturday’s rain out.  The Nationals will send south paw Gio Gonzalez to the mound. Gio had his least impressive season since 2009 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Opponents also hit .262 against Gonzalez this year. However the Los Angeles Dodgers were horrible against left handed pitchers this season.  Los Angeles hit .213 against south paws, by far the worst in all of MLB, well behind the Orioles who hit .234. Current Dodgers have only  an .163 life-time batting average against Gio Gonzalez.

Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda has never faced the Nationals or any of their current players. This will be the first postseason start of Maeda’s career, including his years in Japan. The Dodgers were 5-1 against the Nationals during the record season and that one win came on July 20, Gio’s only start against the Dodgers this season. In the winning effort Gio allowed three hits and one earned run over six innings.

I am betting on the Nationals +134 Moneyline .

 ALDS Game 3 Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox (Series Indians lead 2-0) 6:00pm EST 

Indians: Tomlin (13-9, 4.40) Red Sox: Buchholz (8-10, 4.78) 

Anything can happen in the MLB playoffs, so I am proud to say that I had a 8-6 record in the first week, however I was 0-3 in picks from this series.

Buchholz was 2-7 with a 5.60 ERA at home this season. Buchholz  also allowed eight earned against the Indians in ten innings pitched this season.

Josh Tomlin allowed three earned runs and seven hits over 7.2 innings pitched against the Red Sox this season, but he did not face them at Fenway Park.

The Tribe is really rolling right now and I am going with the Indians +135 Moneyline to complete the sweep.

NLDS Game 3 Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants (Cubs lead 2-0) 9:30 pm EST 

 Cubs: Arrieta (18-8, 3.10) Giants:  Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74)

iHere we have two stud pitchers who are among baseball’s best who also have very good numbers against their opponent.

For his career Bumgarner is 8-2 in 12 starts against the Cubs with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. The Under is 9-3 in those starts.  Bumgarner was 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 16 strikeouts against the Cubs this season over 13.2 innings pitched.

Jake Arrieta has made six starts against the Giants  in his career and is 4-2 with 2.25 ERA and also a 1.02 WHIP. On the season Arrieta was 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA against the Giants with 15 strikeouts over 13 innings.

This game is a tough call, but I expect the Giants -124 Moneyline to find a way to keep their season alive in a game that sees UNDER 6 runs scored.

American Division Series: Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians (Oct. 6, 2016)

MLB Playoffs Game 4 Boston Red Sox (93-69) at Cleveland Indians (94-67) 8 pm EST

Red Sox: Porcello (22-4, 3.15 ERA) Indians: Bauer 12-8, 4.26)

 

The Cleveland Indians come in tied for the best home record in the American League despite only ranking 28th in MLB attendance. For game one the crowd and playoff atmosphere should be much more electric than what the Indians experienced for most of their season. I do however think Cleveland is in for a tough test with Trevor Bauer starting game one of the series. The Indians come in a wounded team due to injuries to starters Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and questions surrounding Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber.

Current Red Sox hitters are 17 for 44 (.386) against Trevor Bauer. Bauer has a 4.73 home ERA this season and a 5-5 record with a 5.36 ERA overall since the all-star break.

The Red Sox will counter with Cy Young candidate Rick Porcello who is having a career season. Porcello was 11-2 with a 2.62 ERA since the all star break and he is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA against Cleveland all-time.

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To win this game, the Indians will need to score more than a few runs and the Cleveland lineup did a very good job of that at home where they averaged 5.6 runs per game. The Red Sox and Indians finished first and second in the American League in runs scored, but the Red Sox still out scored the Indians on the season 878 runs to 777. This means that Boston scored 101 more runs than any other team in the American League.

Trevor Bauer is in uncharted territory here and has been inconsistent down the stretch. No lineup in baseball hits mediocre pitching better than Boston. I have to go with the Boston Red Sox Moneyline -135.

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American Division Series: Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (Oct. 6, 2016)

MLB Playoffs Game 3 Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers  4:30pm EST

Blue Jays: Estrada (9-9, 3.48) Rangers: Hamels (15-5, 3.32)

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The American League Division Series begins Thursday with a rematch of last years series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers. This season the Rangers have home field advantage. In last seasons postseason five game classic between these two teams, the home team went only 1-4.

The Blue Jays won the regular season series 4-3, but the Rangers won two out of the three games played in Texas. The Rangers went 53-28 at home this season, tied with Cleveland for the best home record in the American League.

Cole Hamels is 0-3 against Toronto with a 5.29 ERA in six regular season starts, the over is 4-2 in those games.  In last years ALDS, Hamels was 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts against Toronto.  Current Blue Jays hitters have a lifetime .267 batting average and 4 home runs against Hamels.

 

The Rangers are 12-3 in Hamels home starts this season. Hamel has a 5-2 record in those home starts, but he has received very good run support, Hamels home ERA is 4.40 on the season.  Hamels had 5.86 ERA in his last five starts. The Blue Jays who are 9-2 in their 11 games against a left-handed starter, will send Marco Estrada to the mound. Estrada had a 3.75 ERA in two starts against Texas this season, with no decisions.  On the season Estrada is 6-2 with a 3.39 ERA in road starts. Opponents are also only hitting  .203 against Estrada  this season and .193 on the road. Marco Estrada will look to build off of a very solid 2015 playoff run were he was 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA.

The Rangers are favorites -140. I like Toronto’s chances in this game, and the +129 value.  I have two plays for this game Blue Jays Moneyline +129 and  UNDER 9 runs.

 

 

MLB Playoffs Game 2: National League Wildcard Game Pick (Oct.5, 2016)

 

Yesterday we got off to a 0-1 start in the MLB playoffs. We decided to take the Orioles in a match-up that I said could go either way. There was a lot to like about the Orioles, so I took the value and +142 that the Orioles were getting at the time.

The game went 11 innings and Buck Showalter turned to Ubaldo Jimenez instead of Zach Britton. Ball game. That’s playoff baseball.

San Francisco Giants (87-75) at New York Mets (87-75) 8pm EST

Giants: Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74) Mets: Syndergaard (14-9, 2.60)

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The MLB Wildcard round concludes Wednesday night with two teams that despite shaky seasons; always seem to find a way to win when needed.

The San Francisco Giants are World Series champs from the last three even-number years, 2010, 2012 and 2014.  The New York Mets are the defending National League champs from last season.

Both teams come in with identical regular season records, with the Mets winning the regular season series by taking four of the seven match-ups over the Giants. Six of the seven games between these two teams this season went Over the total.

Bumgarner has made six career starts against the Mets, all time he is 5-0 with a 1.80 earned run average against them. On the road this season Bumgarner is 6-5 with a 3.39 ERA.

Noah Syndergaard is 1-2 with a 3.66 earned run average in three all-time starts against the Giants. At home this season Syndergaard is 6-6 with a 2.90 ERA. It is worth noting that Syndergaard has allowed 48 stolen bases in 57 attempts this season, that is a MLB worst since Hideo Nomo allowed 52 steals in 2001.

Overall, I am going with the Giants in this game. I would love to throw out a better reason as to why, but I am putting my trust into Madison Bumgarner, Bruce Bochy and the rest of San Francisco in this one. My main reason, the Giants have won the last 10 straight playoff series’ that they have played in. The Giants have a 34-14 post season record since 2010, which covers their last three playoff trips, all which ended with world championships.

There is definitely a lot to like about the Mets’ chances here, but I cannot bet against the Giants, not this early.  Giants Moneyline -105
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