Month: December 2016

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Las Vegas Bowl – Houston vs San Diego State (December 17, 2016 Prediction)

Las Vegas Bowl – Houston Cougars (9-3) vs San Diego St. Aztecs (10-3)

The Las Vegas Bowl features one of the premiere non-power five conference match-ups. The Houston Cougars started their season strong with a 33-23 win over Oklahoma on their way to a 5-0 start. Things did not go as smooth for Houston the rest of the season, the Cougars finished 4-3 overall and 1-6 against the spread in their final seven games.

Houston’s only win against the spread among those final seven games was a dominate 36-10 home win over Louisville. Houston will also face the challenge of playing with Tom Herman, who left for the head coaching job at Texas.

The San Diego State Azetcs come in with the nations 7th ranked rushing game and 119th ranked passing game, this feeds into Houston’s strength on defense. Houston comes in 3rd in the nation allowing only 98 rushing yards per game, even though they allowed 306 rushing yards in one game to Navy earlier this season.

Believe it or not San Diego State will come into this game as an underdog for the first time all season, despite being a good football team this also tells you something about the Aztecs schedule this season. San Diego State went 0-4 against teams that will be playing in a bowl game this postseason.

This is a tough game to call because both teams have had moments that make you shake your head. Houston promoting offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to head coach eases some of the concerns that I would typically expect with a coaching change, still I’m not sure which Houston team to expect. Houston is 0-6 against in their last 6 games as a favorite which adds to the reasons I’m not comfortable laying -4 on the Cougars here.

I’ll predict Houston to win here but I would not bet on it.

My prediction: Houston 34 San Diego State 24

New Mexico Bowl – UTSA vs New Mexico (December 17, 2016 Prediction)

New Mexico Bowl- UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) vs New Mexico Lobos (8-4)

University of Texas at San Antonio, a program that has only been playing football since 2011, will be making their first ever postseason appearance in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl. New Mexico will be playing in this bowl for the second straight season, the Lobos were defeated in the New Mexico Bowl last year 45-37 by Arizona.

New Mexico comes in with the nations number one rushing attack, averaging 361 rushing yards per game and 6.8 yards per carry. UTSA will try to slow down the Lobos with a respectable run defense that allowed a158 rushing yards per game, good for 52nd nationally.

UTSA strikes me as an all around average team, not horrible but not particularly great in any areas either. I expect the Roadrunners to be excited about the schools ever postseason football appearance, but the Lobos are basically playing a home game here. In the end I expect the Lobos running game to wear down the Roadrunners. Look for the Lobos to cover, but if you see this a 7.5, buy the half point and get this to seven points.

My prediction: New Mexico 35 UTSA 24 (New Mexico -7)

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Camellia Bowl – Toledo vs Appalachian State (December 17, 2016 Prediction)

Camellia Bowl – Toledo Rockets (9-3) vs Appalachian St. (9-3) Preview

The Camellia Bowl features the Sun Belt Champion Appalachian State Mountaineers and the Toledo Rockets. Appalachian State will be playing in their second consecutive Camellia Bowl. In last season’s game the Mountaineers defeated the Ohio Bobcats 31-29

The Mountaineers have been very solid defensively this season allowing only 17 points per game (seventh in nation) and 326 yards per game (15th in the nation). The Toledo Rockets come in ranked 9th in the nation in offensive yards per game. Both teams come in with rushers who have over 1,300 rushing yards on the season. Jalin Moore leads the Appalachian State rushing attack with 1,367 rushing yards, while Kareem Hunt leads Toledo with 1,355 rushing yards.
Toledo has had more success in the passing game this season lead by Logan Woodside who has thrown for 43 touchdowns this season against only 9 interceptions. Three year started Taylor Lamb has been solid for Appalachian State, coming in with 60 touchdown passes 25 interceptions in his career of 36 starts.

Against the spread Toledo is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against the Sun Belt Conference and 8-0-1 against the spread in their last 9 non-conference games overall. The Over is only 1-4-1 in the last six Toledo games.

Appalachian State is 6-6 against the spread this season, and the over is 5-7 in the Mountaineers games.

On the season Toledo and Appalachian State both defeated the Akron Zips, their only common opponent. The Mountaineers defeated the Zips 45-38 on the road on Sept. 24. Toledo won at Akron 48-17 on Nov. 2.

The Mountaineers defense will challenge the Rockets, but overall I think Toledo’s balance attack will be too much.

My prediction: Toledo 30 Appalachian State 24 (Toledo -1)

Under 59.5

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Celebration Bowl North Carolina Central Eagles vs Grambling State Tigers (December 17, 2016 Prediction)

Celebration Bowl – North Carolina Central Eagles (9-2) vs Grambling State Tigers (11-1)

The College Football bowl season kicks off with the second annual Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl. Even though the game may not be on your personal radar, the game is available to bet on the Vegas lines, and could be very exciting.

Both teams come in undefeated about FCS opponents on the season. North Carolina State suffered two blow out loses at the beginning of the season, 49-6 at Wake Forrest and 70-21 at Western Michigan respectively.

The lone blemish on the Tigers season was a 31-21 season opening road loss to the Arizona Wildcats.

The MEAC and SWAC do not compete in the FCS playoffs, so the Celebration bowl is the ultimate goal for the season. Both teams represent conferences that that receive very little national attention and this game will allow both teams to showcase their talents in the national spotlight with an afternoon kickoff at the Georgia Dome on ABC.

The Grambling State Tigers had a dominate season in the SWAC, leading the conference in scoring, rushing and passing years per game on both offense and defense.

This game should be exciting. At the moment I am not personally advising any personal bets because the Vegas lines are almost right online with my prediction.

Grambling State -14.5

Over/ Under 55

My prediction: Grambling State 35 N.C Central 23

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2016 CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME- Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky

Louisiana Tech (8-4, 6-2) and Western Kentucky (9-3, 7-1) both head into Saturday’s Conference USA Championship game as the leagues two highest scoring teams and tied for 5th in the nation averaging 44 points per game.

This is a rematch from Oct. 6, where the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs came into the game as 3 point home underdog before pulling off a 55-52 win. The Bulldogs led 52-31 going into the 4th quarter as well and managed to hold of the Hilltoppers comeback attempt.

Western Kentucky started off the week as a 7.5 point favorite and the spread has now climbed to 10 point advantage for the Hilltoppers.

These are two evenly balanced teams and I believe the spread is to high here due to last weeks results. Louisiana Tech is coming off of a terrible 39-24 upset loss to Southern Mississippi. Western Kentucky is coming off of a very impressive 60-6 win over Marshall.

I expect Louisiana Tech to play much better this week, and I expect an offensive shootout that can go either way. Western Kentucky has scored over 40 points nine times this season and Louisiana Tech has scored over 40 points eight times this season.

Louisiana Tech is 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games as an underdog. The Bulldogs have also covered in their last four games against a team with a winning record. I liked Louisiana Tech earlier this week at +7.5, I like them even more as the spread has increased to +10 . As a +310 underdog Louisiana Tech might be a decent money line gamble as well.

Prediction Western Kentucky 49 Louisiana Tech 45

My picks: Louisiana Tech +10 and OVER 80

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