April 18 MLB Picks

    Recapping Picks from April 16 (2-1)

Colorado Rockies 4 at San Francisco Giants 3  (WIN +123)

The Giants continued to punish bettors have taken them this season, while the Rockies continue to reward as underdogs.

Washington Nationals 6 Philadelphia Phillies 4  (LOSS UNDER 8)

It looked good when the game went into the 8th inning with the Nats leading 3-1. It wasn’t until Bryce Harper’s two out three-run homerun in the bottom of the 9th that sunk our ship.

Chicago White Sox 3 Minnesota Twins 1  (WON UNDER 9)

The 9 runs which jumped up to 9.5 runs before game time was way too high for anyone paying attention to these teams so far.

April 18 Quick Picks:

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Detroit Tigers (+114.0) at Tampa Bay Rays (-114.0)  @ 7:10 PM EST 

 We like the Tigers here with underdog value. Detroit is 3-1 as an underdog this season and starter Micheal Fulmer only allowed one run over 14 total innings against the Rays last season with 21 strikeouts

The Tigers are 5-2 against the Rays in the last seven games at Tampa.

Miguel Cabrera is questionable, but I still like the Tigers Moneyline here.

Milwaukee Brewers (+161.0) at Chicago Cubs (-161.0) @8:05 PM EST

The Chicago Cubs are struggling and have dropped five out of their last six games overall and have been favored in every game this season.

The Brewers Brewers have won six out of last seven games overall and in five out of those six wins they were the underdog.

Both starting pitchers are off to good starts but Cubs started Brett Anderson is still a huge question mark to take the Cubs with -161 juice and Cubs bullpen is 1-4 with a 4.10 ERA so far.

I am taking the Brewers Moneyline.

Miami Marlins (-102.0) at Seattle Mariners (+102.0) @ 10:10 PM

Marlins starter Yovani Gallardo is 5-1 with a 1.90 ERA in eight starts against the Marlins in his career.

The Marlins are only 6-20 in last 26 road interleague games on the road.

The Mariners have won  eight of its last 11 interleague games at home.

Take the Seattle Mariners Moneyline.

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April 16 MLB Picks

Colorado Rockies (8-5) at San Francisco Giants (5-8)

(Rockies:Senzatela  1-0, 1.50) (Giants: Samardzija 0-2, 6.75)

The Giants, who are currently favorites (-123) are hoping to pick up a spilt today when they wrap up a four game series at home against the Rockies. The Giants have dropped both of Samardizja’s first two starts this season and are only 5-8 overall despite being favored in all 13 games they’ve played so far.

20170411__2612020_antonio-senzatela-rockies-beat-padres-1In his career Jeff Samardzija’s teams are 5-2 all time when he starts against the Rockies, however both losses came last season, when Samardzija was 1-2 against the Rockies in four starts despite a 2.51 earned run average and racking up 34 strikeouts in 28 and 2/3 innings.

The Colorado Rockies are 4-2 as moneyline underdogs on this young season. Rookie Antonio Senzatela will be making his third career start and the Rockies won both of Senzatela’s first two starts as underdogs. Senzatela has allowed two earned runs over 12 innings while picking up 11 strikeouts. The Rockies bullpen is 4-0 with a 2.80 ERA and seven saves on the season.

Colorado is 12-10 against the Giants in San Francisco and 22-19 against the Giants overall the past three seasons. The value and trends favor the Rockies here who have the better value on their side.

Prediction: Rockies 5 Giants 3 (Rockies Moneyline)

Philadelphia Phillies (4-7) at Washington Nationals (6-5)

(Phillies: Eickhoff 0-1, 1.98) (Nationals: Gonzalez 1-0, 0.69)

Jerad Eickhoff is 1-1 against the Nationals with an 2.37 earned run average in three career starts. The Under is 2-1 in those games with Washington never scoring more than three runs. Nationals hitters have a combined batting average of .222 against Eickhoff.

Gio Gonzalez is 10-6 in his career against the Phillies with a 2.67 ERA, including only a 1.37 ERA against them last season in four starts. The Under is 11-8 in Gio’s career against the Phillies.

My Pick: UNDER 8 RUNS

 

Chicago White Sox (5-5) at Minnesota Twins (7-4)

(White Sox: Shields 1-0, 1.69) (Twins: Santiago 1-1, 2.38)

Santiago was 4-0 with a 1.03 earned run average against the White Sox in 2016.  White Sox hitters also only have a combined career .141 batting average while slugging .221 against him. Santiago is off to a nice start with 1-1 record and 2.38 ERA, with his loss coming to the Detroit Tigers in a 2-1 game where he allowed a two-run homer.

James Shields went five and 1/3 innings in both of his starts this season, allowing only two hits and one earned run in each game to Detroit and Cleveland.

Both teams bullpens have been very good so far, with the White Sox bullpen currently holding a 1.44 earned run average with the Twins bullpen not far behind with a 1.53 earned run average, good for second and third best in the American League respectively.

Both teams have only played in two games that have had more than nine total runs  so far this season. I am confidently picking under 9 Runs.

My Pick: UNDER 9 RUNS

 

 

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April 11-15 MLB Results

Toronto Blue Jays v Detroit Tigers
Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers is hitting .182 after the first 11 games of the season.  But history tells us that Miguel will turn things around, much like we will this season.  (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

April 11 Results (1-3)

 Cleveland Indians 2 Chicago White Sox 1

Pick: Chicago White Sox Moneyline +215  LOSS

Cincinnati Reds 6 Pittsburgh Pirates 2

Pick: Pirates Moneyline -180 LOSS

Colorado Rockies 3 San Diego Padres 2

Pick: UNDER 12 Runs WIN

Arizona Diamondbacks 4 San Francisco Giants 3

Pick: OVER 7.5 Runs LOSS

 

April 12 Results (2-4)

Detroit Tigers 5 Minnesota 3

Pick: Tigers Moneyline -137 WIN

San Diego Padres 6 Colorado Rockies 0

Colorado Rockies moneyline (-151.0) and Colorado Rockies (-1.5)   2 LOSSES

Chicago White Sox 2 Cleveland Indians 1

OVER 8 Runs and Cleveland Indians  (-1.5)   2 LOSS

Milwaukee Brewers 2 Toronto Blue Jays 0

UNDER 9 Runs WIN

 

April 13 Results (1-1)

Chicago Cubs 4 Los Angeles Dodgers 0

Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-119)  WIN

Colorado Rockies 3 San Francisco Giants 1

Giants Moneyline (-156) LOSS

April 14 Results (0-1)

Los Angeles Dodgers 7 Arizona Diamondbacks 1

Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 LOSS

Colorado Rockies 3 San Francisco Giants 1

Giants Moneyline (-156) LOSS

 

April 15 Results (5-3)

Toronto Blue Jays 2 Baltimore Orioles 1

Blue Jays Moneyline (-140)  WON

New York Yankees 3 St. Louis Cardinals 2

Cardinals Moneyline (+105)  LOSS  and Cardinals +1.5 (WIN)

Pittsburgh Pirates 8 Chicago Cubs 7

Cubs Moneyline (-231)  LOSS  and Cubs -1.5 (LOSS)

Colorado Rockies 5 San Francisco Giants 0

Rockies Moneyline (+120) and  Rockies +1.5  WINS

Houston Astros 10 Oakland A’s 6

Astros Moneyline (-153) WIN

 

Total season record 17-28 MLB Earnings -$7,115.03

 

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MLB Picks April 11

April 11 MLB Picks

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians

(White Sox: Shields 1-0, 1.69) (Indians: Carrasco 1-0, 3.18) 4:10 pm EST

Pick: Chicago White Sox Moneyline +215

James Shields had a strong first start of the season allowing one earned run over 5 1/3 innings in a 11-2 victory over Detroit. 2016 was a nightmare for Shields going 6-19 with a 5.85 earned run average.

Cleveland is scheduled to send Carlos Carrasco to the mound who is the only Indians starting pitcher who has won a game so far. In his first start Carrasco allowed two earned runs and struck out seven in a 4-3 win over Texas.  Carrasco has struggled against the White Sox in his career with a 3-9 record and 5.63 ERA in 16 starts.

I don’t like the value here for Cleveland at -215. I’m taking the White Sox +215 Moneyline.

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

(Reds: Davis 0-0, 12.00) (Pirates: Taillon 0-0, 0.00) 7:05 pm EST

Pick: Pirates Moneyline -180

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

(Padres: Weaver 0-1, 7.20) (Rockies Senzatela 0-0, 0.00) 8:40 pm EST

Pick: UNDER 12 Runs

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

(Diamondbacks: Ray 0-0, 4.76) (Giants: Samardzija 0-1, 10.13) 10:15 pm EST

Pick: OVER 7.5 Runs

Past Result Recap

April 7-10 Results (4 wins 6 loss/-$621.63)

April 7: Detroit Tigers 6 Boston Red Sox 5

Picks: Tigers Moneyline (-115, +185) 10 Units- ($500) WIN
Tigers (-1.5 runs) 1 Unit ($50) LOSS

Pittsburgh Pirates 5 Atlanta Braves 4

Picks: Pirates Moneyline (-133) 10 Units- ($500) WIN
Pirates (-1.5 runs) 1 Unit ($50, +162) LOSS

Colorado Rockies 2 Los Angeles Dodgers 1

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-132.0) LOSS

Milwaukee Brewers 2 Chicago Cubs 1

Pick: OVER 9 Runs (+109) LOSS

April 8: Colorado Rockies 4 Los Angeles Dodgers 2

Picks: Dodgers Moneyline (-190) 10 Units- ($500) LOSS
Dodgers (-1.5 runs) 4 Unit ($200) LOSS

April 10: New York Yankees 8 Tampa Bay Rays 1 

Pick: Rays Moneyline (+121) 10 Units- ($500) LOSS

New York Mets 4 Philadelphia Phillies 3

Pick: UNDER 8 (+100) 10 Units- ($500) WIN

Chicago Cubs 3 Los Angeles Dodgers 2

Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-136) 10 Units- ($500) WIN
Total season record 8-16 MLB Earnings $4,128.92
 
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MLB Picks April 7

2017 MLB Season Results:

April 2, 2017: 0-2  (MLB Pot -$1,000)

April 3, 2017: 1-2 (MLB Pot -$835.53)

April 4, 2017: 2-2  (MLB Pot -$152.53)

April 5, 2017: 1-2  (MLB Pot -$519.23)

April 6, 2017 0-2(MLB Pot -1000)

April 6 Recap:  Pick 1- $500.00  Royals Money line

Result: LOSS Twins 5 Royals 3
Pick 2- $500.00  Royals  at Twins OVER 8
Result: PUSH
Game 3- $500.00 Padres Moneyline (+205)
Result: LOSS Dodgers 10 Padres 2
Total season record (4-10 MLB Pot “-$3,507.29”)

With so many early games today here are my quick picks

MLB Picks for April 7, 2017

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers 

(Red Sox: Wright)   (Tigers: Fulmer) 1:10 pm EST
Detroit has won 8 straight home openers (2009-2016)

Picks: Tigers Moneyline (-115, +185) 10 Units- ($500)

Tigers (-1.5 runs) 1 Unit ($50)

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates

(Braves: Foltynewicz) (Pirates: Nova) 1:05pm EST

Picks: Pirates Moneyline (-133) 10 Units- ($500)

Pirates (-1.5 runs) 1 Unit ($50, +162)

 

Los Angeles Dodgers at  Colorado Rockies

(Dodgers: Ryu) (Rockies: Freeland) 4:10pm EST

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-132.0)

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

(Cubs: Anderson) (Brewers: Nelson) 8:10pm EST

Pick: OVER 9 Runs (+109)

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MLB Picks April 6

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Apr 5, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario (20) congratulates third baseman Miguel Sano (22) after scoring in the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

I am going to be as transparent as possible. Wednesday was another losing day at 1-2. The win came with the Braves pulling out a 3-1 12th inning victory over the Mets.  We had the Braves at +1.5, too bad we punked out and didn’t go Braves Moneyline at +194.

The over 7.5 for the Yankees-Rays game was looking really good when the Rays took a 4-1 lead in the 2nd inning.  Unfortunately there were no more runs scored beyond the second inning, and the Yankees went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position.

The beginning of this season has been very frustrating, however even if we were currently on a winning streak, the baseball season and sports handicapping is a marathon, not a sprint.

2017 MLB Season Results:

April 2, 2017: 0-2  (MLB Pot -$1,000)

April 3, 2017: 1-2 (MLB Pot -$835.53)

April 4, 2017: 2-2  (MLB Pot -$152.53)

April 5, 2017: 1-2  (MLB Pot -$519.23)

April 5 Recap:  Game 1- $500.00  Marlins at Nationals UNDER 9 runs

Result: LOSS Nationals 6 Marlins 4

Game 2- $500.00  Yankees at Rays OVER 7.5 runs

Result: LOSS Rays 4 Yankees 1
Game 3- $500.00 Mets +1.5 Runs  (-104)
Result: WIN Braves 3 Mets 1
Total season record (4-8 MLB Pot “-$2,507.29”)

With so many early games today, below I have all of my MLB Picks listed with a very brief explanation.

MLB Picks for April 6, 2017

Kansas City Royals (MONEYLINE +108) at Minnesota Twins
(Royals: Hammel)   (Twins: Gibson) 1:10 pm EST
The Twins have won the first two games of the series and now come into the final game of this three game series as favorites. The Twins are  26-52 against American League Central opponents over the last 2 season.  I am going with two picks here, the underdog Royals (+108)  to get the win and the total of OVER 8 runs.
San Diego Padres (MONEYLINE +205) at Los Angeles Dodgers
(Padres: Weaver)   (Dodgers: McCarthy) 3:10 pm EST
With odds of +205, you can make a profit but winning only 33% of your bets.  Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy has only made a total of 13 starts and 63 innings pitched the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are +220 favorites, but the Padres have played them tough recently. These teams have split the last 22 games against each other with 11 wins a piece. Give me the Padres +205 MONEYLINE.
Embed from Getty Images
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MLB Free Pick: Miami at Washington April 5

Day three of the season ended with a 2-2 finish, after a double loss in our free pick Indians-Rangers game, we bounced back with wins by the San Francisco Giants and a comeback win by the Los Angeles Angels.

April 2, 2017: 0-2  (MLB Pot -$1,000)

April 3, 2017: 1-2 (MLB Pot -$835.53)

April 4, 2017: 2-2  (MLB Pot -$152.53)

Game 1- $500.00  Texas Rangers ML +146 and OVER 9
Result: 2X LOSS  Indians 4 Rangers 3
Game 2- $500.00  Giants ML -146
Result: WIN  Giants 8 Diamondbacks 4
Game 3- $500.00 LAA Angels moneyline (+101.0)
Result: WIN Angels 7 A’s 6
Total season record (3-6 MLB Pot “-$1,988.06”)
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Free pick for April 5, 2017

Miami Marlins at Washing Nationals
(Marlins: Straily)  (Nationals: Roark) 7:05 pm EST
Where is the love for Tanner Roark? Coming off of a 16-10 record with a 2.83 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2016,  I grabbed Roark for $7 in my fantasy auction draft and he feel to the 9th and 13th round in my snake leagues. Anyway, Roark posted no worse than a 3.56 earned run average in any month of the 2016 season. Yes, Roark was just 2-4 against the Marlins last season, however he went 2-1 in his last three starts against them posting a 1.40 earned run average over 19 1/3 innings in those starts.
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Miami starter Dan Straily was quietly solid last season as well. Straily was not spectacular but only allowed over three earned runs pnly once in his final 17 starts last season. Washington hitters Bruce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Jayson Werth are also a combined 0 for 19 in their careers against Straily. Most lines right now are showing the over/under at 8.5 with 83% of the betting public taking the over. I definitely like the under here even at 8.5, however I was able to find the under at 9 runs (-110), and that is the recommended play
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