College Football Saturday Week 2 -Free Picks

Here is a quick look at four of my picks for Saturday September 9.

SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS +28 at Texas Longhorns

I’ve seen this line as high as +28 and as low as +23.5. This spread shows a lot of respect for Texas and Tom Herman despite coming off of a 51-41 loss as a 19 point favorite to Maryland. San Jose State blew a 16 point lead to South Florida on August 26, before falling 42-22, but still covered the 22 point spread. Last week the Spartans defeated Cal Poly 34-13.

The Longhorns are 3-12 against the spread in their last 15 games after scoring 40 points or more. I expect the Longhorns to get back on track here, but not by 28 points. Even at Houston, at times Tom Herman teams showed let downs against weaker competition. I am taking San Jose State +28.

 

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS +21.5 at Penn State Nittany Lions

Not to dwell on last season, but lets not forget Pittsburgh defeated Penn State 42-39 last year. I am not looking down on Pittsburgh for only defeating a very underrated Youngstown State team by seven points. Youngstown State finished last season as the FCS national runner up. Penn State did look impressive in week one 52-0 win against Akron and return ten starters on offense. Penn State has now won ten straight games against the spread.

I expect Penn State to get revenge from last season, but the line here is too high in my opinion. Pittsburgh is 4-1 against the spread in their last five match-ups versus Penn State. Expect the Panthers to play hard and cover the +21.5.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Oregon Ducks OVER 68.5

Nebraska and Arkansas State combined for 79 points (43-36 Nebraska) and Oregon and Southern Utah combined for 98 points (Oregon 77-21) last week. Oregon actually allowed all 21 of Southern Utah’s points in the first half. Oregon rushed for nine touchdowns and 348 yards against the Thunderbirds. Nebraska allowed 415 yards passing to Arkansas State last week.

The over is 7-1 in Cornhuskers last 8 games as a road underdog. The over is 5-1 in Oregon’s last six games as a favorite and the over is 40-16-1 in Oregon’s last 57 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or more.

Moneyline Cupcake: THE OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +272 over Oklahoma

Is Oklahoma a cupcake? No. But my Moneyline Cupcake picks track my bets in games where I pick favorites to win straight up who are +200 or higher. This test the strategy of betting money line favorites that I feel very confident about, despite lower value.

Oklahoma has won 11 straight games since last seasons 45-24 home loss to Ohio State. Ohio State is 16-4 in home night games. Urban Meyer is 8-4 against top 10 teams as the head coach of Ohio State.

Since this is just a quick preview, I will leave it at this. I am taking Ohio State and Urban Meyer at home, against Oklahoma and first season head coach Lincoln Riley. I like the Buckeyes 41-30.

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Friday Sept. 1 College Football Picks

Washington Huskies at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

The first of my two Friday picks takes place when the Washington Huskies travel to Piscataway New Jersey to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in a rematch of last seasons opener.

Washington returns 13 starters, seven on offense and six on defense, from last seasons 12-2 playoff team.

Rutgers returns 13 starters as well, five on offense and eight on defense. The Scarlet Knights however were only 2-10 last season and lost at Washington 48-13 to open the season.

27.5 points in a big spread for a road team traveling across the country for a season opener, but besides playing at home I don’t see many reasons to be optimistic for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers was 4-8 against the spread last season and are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten home games overall.

Rutgers ranked last in the Big Ten last season in total, scoring and passing offense. While the Huskies defense may take a step back from last years number one ranked defense in the PAC-12 after losing four elite players on that side of the ball. The Huskies still have more than enough talent back to rout Rutgers.

Get Sports Strong Pick: Washington -27.5 (Washington 52 Rutgers 17)

 

Navy Midshipman at Florida Atlantic Owls

For the next free pick on Friday night we take a look at Lane Kiffin’s debut as the head coach of the Florida Atlantic Owls when then they host the Navy Midshipman.

It should be fun to see what Kiffin can do at FAU, however there is a lot of work to be done, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Owls return six players on defense from a team that ranked 124th in total defense and 119th in the nation against the run last season.

New coaching is in place, however FAU has dropped their last six home games against the spread. The Navy Midshipman are 7-1-1 against the spread in their last 9 games when they come in as favorite between 3.5 to 10 points.

Get Sports Strong Pick: Navy -9.5 (Navy 45 Florida Atlantic 24)

 

 

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