Here is a quick look at four of my picks for Saturday September 9.
SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS +28 at Texas Longhorns
I’ve seen this line as high as +28 and as low as +23.5. This spread shows a lot of respect for Texas and Tom Herman despite coming off of a 51-41 loss as a 19 point favorite to Maryland. San Jose State blew a 16 point lead to South Florida on August 26, before falling 42-22, but still covered the 22 point spread. Last week the Spartans defeated Cal Poly 34-13.
The Longhorns are 3-12 against the spread in their last 15 games after scoring 40 points or more. I expect the Longhorns to get back on track here, but not by 28 points. Even at Houston, at times Tom Herman teams showed let downs against weaker competition. I am taking San Jose State +28.
PITTSBURGH PANTHERS +21.5 at Penn State Nittany Lions
Not to dwell on last season, but lets not forget Pittsburgh defeated Penn State 42-39 last year. I am not looking down on Pittsburgh for only defeating a very underrated Youngstown State team by seven points. Youngstown State finished last season as the FCS national runner up. Penn State did look impressive in week one 52-0 win against Akron and return ten starters on offense. Penn State has now won ten straight games against the spread.
I expect Penn State to get revenge from last season, but the line here is too high in my opinion. Pittsburgh is 4-1 against the spread in their last five match-ups versus Penn State. Expect the Panthers to play hard and cover the +21.5.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Oregon Ducks OVER 68.5
Nebraska and Arkansas State combined for 79 points (43-36 Nebraska) and Oregon and Southern Utah combined for 98 points (Oregon 77-21) last week. Oregon actually allowed all 21 of Southern Utah’s points in the first half. Oregon rushed for nine touchdowns and 348 yards against the Thunderbirds. Nebraska allowed 415 yards passing to Arkansas State last week.
The over is 7-1 in Cornhuskers last 8 games as a road underdog. The over is 5-1 in Oregon’s last six games as a favorite and the over is 40-16-1 in Oregon’s last 57 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or more.
Moneyline Cupcake: THE OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +272 over Oklahoma
Is Oklahoma a cupcake? No. But my Moneyline Cupcake picks track my bets in games where I pick favorites to win straight up who are +200 or higher. This test the strategy of betting money line favorites that I feel very confident about, despite lower value.
Oklahoma has won 11 straight games since last seasons 45-24 home loss to Ohio State. Ohio State is 16-4 in home night games. Urban Meyer is 8-4 against top 10 teams as the head coach of Ohio State.
Since this is just a quick preview, I will leave it at this. I am taking Ohio State and Urban Meyer at home, against Oklahoma and first season head coach Lincoln Riley. I like the Buckeyes 41-30.
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