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MONDAY APRIL 30 MLB FREE PICK
Month: April 2018
SATURDAY APRIL 28 MLB FREE PICK
We have had much better days than our picks on Friday April 27th.
The New York Yankees -1.5, in hindsight may have been too aggressive, but I feel it was still a good selection based on value. The Yankees won 4-3 in extra innings, but failed to win by more than one run, which gave us a loss.
The “Get Strong Select Play” last night was the Oakland A’s at Houston Astros UNDER 8.5 or UNDER 9 runs. Those who made the selection at 9 earned a push, in the 8-1 win, but since I originally set the pick at UNDER 8.5, and personally locked in at 8.5 it was another loss. If you would have told me before the game that the Astros would only score one run, I would have told you we would have covered the UNDER easy. But Dallas Keuchel tied his career high giving up three home runs….and that’s baseball.
Despite the two losses we are still 24-15 on the season.
Here is the free play for today.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox 4:05 pm EST
Projected Starters: Rays: Yonny Chirinos (1-2 2.92 ERA) Red Sox: David Price (2-2, 2.93 ERA)
David Price has a 2.93 ERA so far on the season, which includes two very strong starts against the Rays. In his starts against Tampa Bay this season, Price has pitched a total of 14 innings allowing seven hits and zero runs.
Rays projected stater Yonny Chirinos has faced the Red Sox twice this season, once as a starter and once in relief. Chirinos has not allowed a run in the nine innings he has pitched against the Red Sox.
The Under is 5-3 in the Red Sox versus Rays games so far this season. I think the total of 9 is too high.
My pick: UNDER 9 Runs -108 (Four Units)
We maybe playing at least one more MLB Game today as well, still waiting to see where some lines and totals end up.
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FRIDAY APRIL 27 MLB FREE PICK
Currently we are 24-13 on the MLB Season. We did not make any MLB picks for Thursday April 26. We have a 13-3 record in our last 16 MLB Picks.
I have two picks for today. One free pick, and another select pick available for purchase. The select pick is only $20, however if you purchase the on Friday April 27 before 6:30pm EST/ 3:30 PST you will receive the pick along with all my select picks for 30 days.
Here is my free pick for Friday April 27.
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels 10pm EST
Projected Starters: Yankees: Severino (4-1, 2.32 ERA) vs Angels: Heaney (0-1, 9.64 ERA)
Tonight’s Angels projected starter Andrew Heaney, has a career 4.76 earned run average over 31 starts and 33 appearances. In two starts this season, Heaney is 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA. The two starts Heaney has made this season were against the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals, who are ranked 29th and 30th in total runs scored in all of Major League Baseballrrespectively
Despite having a 16-9 overall record the Los Angeles Angels are only 5-7 at home on the season. All seven of the Angels home losses have been by at least two runs or more.
Luis Severino is projected to make the start for the Yankees, who are rolling as a team with six straight wins. Severino has allowed two runs or less in four of his five starts this season. The only start were Severino allowed more than two runs this season was against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.
The Yankees have won 15 games so far this season, with 13 of those wins coming by at least two runs. I expect the Yankees to win by more than one run here.
My pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (FOUR Units)
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Wednesday April 25 FREE PICKS
The Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates game was rained out yesterday and we did not make any other MLB pick last night.
We may be making a few more plays today. These plays will be sent to our subscribers and also posted on Facebook and Twitter, so be sure to follow.
Here is our two free pick for Wednesday April 25.
Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates GAME 1 4:05pm EST
Projected Starters: Tigers: Zimmerman (1-0, 7.71 ERA) at Pirates: Taillon (2-1, 2.86 ERA)
The OVER is 3-1 in Zimmerman’s four starts this season. The one UNDER came in a game against Cleveland where Zimmerman had to leave the game in the first inning after being hit in the face by a line drive.
On the season Zimmerman is 1-0 but has a 7.71 earned run average. He allowed four runs and six hits over six innings against Pittsburgh on opening day in a game that ended 13-10.
The Pirates projected to go with starter starter Jameson Taillon today against Zimmerman. Yesterday we liked the OVER 8.5 when Chad Kuhl was going to face Zimmerman. Even though runs should be harder to come by off of Taillon, the Pittsburgh bullpen has a 5.23 ERA this season. The total for this game is also only 7.5.
The Detroit bullpen has a 4.42 ERA this season
My pick: OVER 7.5 Runs FOUR UNITS
Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers 7:35pm EST
Projected Starters: Marlins: Richards (0-2, 6,16 ERA) at Dodgers: Kershaw (1-3, 2.45 ERA)
I hate to go with such a predictable play here. However, I have not yet bet on Kershaw yet this season, and with his 1-3 record I’m glad I haven’t. However Kershaw losing 3 out of 4 decisions will not continue forever.
The Marlins and Dodgers have split the first two games of this series with both games decided by only one run. I look for the Dodgers to provide more run support today against the rookie, Marlins projected starter Trevor Richards.
My pick: Dodgers -1.5 runs (-144) THREE UNITS
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TUESDAY APRIL 24 FREE MLB PICK
Yesterday we had an awful beat. We saw value in the Twins +186 and Minnesota lost to the New York Yankees 14-1.
This drops our record to 23-12 on the season in Major League baseball, still up 20.76 units on the season.
Here is our play for Tuesday April 24.
Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates 7:05pm EST
Projected Starters: Tigers: Zimmerman (1-0, 7.71 ERA) at Pirates: Kuhl (2-1, 4.57 ERA)
The OVER is 3-1 in Zimmerman’s four starts this season. The one UNDER came in a game against Cleveland where Zimmerman had to leave the game in the first inning after being hit in the face by a line drive.
One the season Zimmerman is 1-0 but has a 7.71 earned run average. He allowed four runs and six hits over six innings against Pittsburgh on opening day in a game that ended 13-10.
Pirates projected starter Chad Kuhl comes in with a 2-1 record and 4.57 earned run average. The OVER is 4-0 when he pitches this season. Kuhl allowed eight hits and four earned runs against Detroit on April 1 this season in a 8-6 Pirates victory.
The Pittsburgh bullpen has a 5.23 ERA this season and the Detroit bullpen has a 4.42 ERA this season
My pick: OVER 8.5 Runs Four Units
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MONDAY APRIL 23 MLB PICK
Currently we are 23-11 on the MLB Season. We did not make any MLB picks for Sunday April 22. Currently we have a 12-1 record in our last 13 MLB Picks.
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees 7pm EST
Projected Starters: Twins: Odorizzi (1-1, 3.38 ERA) vs Yankees: Tanaka (2-2, 6.45 ERA)
The value is definitely here to take a shot with the Twins.
Yankees projected starter Masahiro Tanaka is coming off of two bad starts against Boston and Miami where he allowed a total of 12 earned runs and 15 hits over 10 innings. The Yankees are 0-2 this season when Tanaka has made a start so far this season against an underdog of more than +180.
Yes, Tanka is 4-0 when starting against Minnesota, however Tanka did not face Minnesota at all in 2017.
My pick: Minnesota Twins Moneyline +186 (Three Units)
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Saturday April 21 FREE PICK
On Friday April 20th we picked the Houston Astros 1.5 against the Chicago White Sox. Houston beat the White Sox 10-0. Yes, the -160 was more juice then we usually recommend laying in Major League Baseball, but my confidence in that play so high that I still went with it, and it worked out well.
That Houston Astros win gave us a 10 game winning streak and 22-10 record on the season in MLB up 23.76 units. This means already $23,760 in profit for a $1,000 a unit player, $2,376 on the season for an $100 a unit player, or $237 in profit for a ten dollar a unit player, based on my unit recommendations.
I am personally playing today’s free pick for four units. This means at -110 odds, a $1,000 unit bettor would lay $4,400, a $100 unit bettor would lay $440, a $10 a unit bettor would lay $44 and a $1 a unit bettor would lay $4.40.
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays 6:10pm EST
Projected Starters: Twins Gibson (1-0, 3.68 ERA) vs Tampa Bay: Snell (2-1, 2.95 ERA)
I think this total should be set at 8.5 but not 7.5.
While Minnesota project starter Kyle Gibson has pitched well this season, he is 1-4 against Tampa Bay in his career with a 7.05 ERA. The OVER is 5-1 in Gibson’s six career starts against Tampa Bay.
Blake Snell has made two career starts against the Twins. The OVER is 2-0 in those games and Snell has a career 6.75 ERA.
The OVER is 12-7 in Tampa Bay Rays games this season.
My pick: OVER 7.5 Runs -110 (Four Units)
We are playing one more MLB Game today as well.
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Friday April 20 FREE PICK
Currently we are on a 9-0 MLB run after last nights results.
Yesterdays results:
Astros 1.5 (-105) WIN
Brewers -1.5 (+109) WIN
We are currently now 20-10 on the season, up 20.76 units.
Houston Astron at Chicago White 8:10pm EST
Projected Starters: Astros: Verlander (2-0, 1.35 ERA) vs White Sox: Shields (1-1, 4.50 ERA)
No long write up due to the late line being posted. We also took the Astros -1.5 yesterday. This pick isn’t sexy or ground breaking, but this is our play as well look to make it 10 in a row.
My pick: Houston Astros -160 (Three Units)
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Dear Cleveland Browns, please not Josh Allen
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From the heart of David Delano…
I am a sports handicapper and sports fanatic. I’m also a die hard Cleveland Browns fan. The last couple years, I have learned to cope with my pain by often betting against the team that I have loved for just as long as I have loved the game of football. As the apathy and disgust continued to build, I decided to capitalize on possibly the biggest cheat code in sports handicapping; betting against the Browns. I still hate to see the team lose, but the losing was going to happen regardless of what I did, so why not enjoy some easy money and comic relief at the expense of the franchise that I love.
I’m sorry but if the Browns are going to go 1-31, I need something back for being a fan. Still my soft spot for Cleveland has prevented me from cashing in on them as much as I easily should have.
I’m not on the radio in Cleveland. I’m not on Fox or ESPN. I’m not a NFL scout and I have not spent hours on hours dissecting tape with Mel Kiper and Todd McShay. So I guess you can say, I’m just “another guy on twitter.” So what is my opinion even worth when it comes to the 2018 NFL draft anyway?
Well, who I am is a die hard Cleveland Browns fan whose happiest moment as a NFL fan was the Browns 1994 season led by “Browns legend” Vinny Testaverde, which resulted in one playoff win over the New England Patriots.
I don’t need to go into detail as to what has happen since 1995, if you are reading this you either already know or can easily find out.
Although I’m not a scout, I follow college football very closely, and although I don’t like to brag, when it comes to handicapping college football, I’m pretty damn good. I love watching college football, not just attending Ohio State, Notre Dame, USC, and Alabama. I enjoy watching Grambling State, Wyoming, Hawaii, Bowling Green, Memphis, San Diego State, Navy, Toledo, Trine University, and a long list of other random teams.
For what it’s worth, I have seen my share of superstars at small and mid-major schools long before they were on the national radar, and I have learned that special talents will often jump out at you.
I remember going to see Eastern Illinois play Toledo in 2000. I had no idea who any of the players on Eastern Illinois where, but I knew when I left the game with my dad, I was convinced that the quarterback for Eastern Illinois was the best quarterback I had ever seen in person, in my life up to that point. I decided to research that kid from Eastern Illinois, and follow his career as much as I could. The kid was Tony Romo.
I remember watching Ben Roetsliberger in high school and college, he was unbelievable. For those who don’t remember Roetsliberger led Miami to a 13-1 record and top ten AP poll ranking in 2003. He was the type of player who elevated the program to another level and put Miami Ohio on the national scene.
Josh Allen is no Big Ben.
I remember watching highlights of Steve McNair in college and all the national attention he brought to Alcorn State in the early 90s. The hype was not all based on his size and charisma, but because of his production, and what he was doing to take Alcorn State to a level the program had never seen prior to his arrival.
So how does any of this relate to this years upcoming draft? Well, when I watch Josh Allen play, I just don’t see it and I just don’t feel it. I do not want Josh Allen on the Cleveland Browns.
In fact if the Browns draft Josh Allen number one, I will want to break something…. but I won’t because I’m a Browns fan and drafting Josh Allen would be the “Browns thing to do.
I believe that if Josh Allen is to be anointed savior of the Browns, then you should be able to tell he’s good from watching the games, without trying to force yourself to love him because Mel Kiper keeps telling you he’s great. I believe that the next man who is presented with one of the biggest challenges in all of professional sports (the man who we are expecting to turn the Cleveland Browns around), should at least be able to turn the Wyoming Cowboys around.
I hope that every quarterback that is selected this year turns out to be a future Hall of Famer. I am not rooting against anyone. It’s not personal; but being a Cleveland Browns fan is tough. Being a Cleveland Browns starting quarterback is even tougher, at least while it last.
Since I am a Browns fan, I did my best to follow the top college quarterbacks this season, even though I hope we would not be in this situation again (yes I said “we”) after drafting Deshone Kizer last season.
I have watched Josh Allen a few times in his career. I watched him lose to Eastern Michigan and Brigham Young in 2016. Then when I heard he was the number one prospect going into 2017, I told one of my friends, “I just watched him, he was okay, but I didn’t see anything special.” So I told myself going into 2017, let’s watch Josh Allen as much as possible, let’s really watch him, with more than just concern for the point spread. So this past season I watched Josh Allen against Oregon, Hawaii, Boise State and Central Michigan. Forgive me for missing Allen’s stellar games against Gardner-Webb, Texas State and New Mexico.
Maybe I can’t evaluate talent.
Maybe I’m not intelligent enough about the game of football to understand that just because I watched a quarterback play over and over again, and he looked like he’s not ready for the NFL doesn’t mean he actually is not ready for the NFL.
Maybe I need to understand that just because I watched Josh Allen go 8 for 18 for 67 yards in regulation against defensive juggernaut Hawaii this season. doesn’t mean he’s not the next Tom Brady. Maybe I just I need to be more open minded and learn to just hop on his nuts like the broadcasters did, when he threw that beautiful 25 yard pass in overtime to give Wyoming a 28-21 overtime win against Hawaii finishing with 92 yards passing and the win.
It feels like I’ve seen 50 college quarterbacks better than Josh Allen in my life, and honestly I want to say even more than that. The kid just isn’t good right now. Some people will say Allen needs time to develop, but so did Deshone Kizer, and we see how that worked out. Despite the 0-16 season, I was all for keeping Kizer around because when he was drafted it seemed to be clear that he would need time to learn. But in Cleveland there’s rarely any time to learn; only pressure to save a failing franchise regardless of the odds stacked up against you.
When I see Josh Allen, I see why the scouts love him. He’s a tall, athletic, strong, good looking white kid. He looks the way the NFL wants their quarterbacks to look. The scouts seem to love what they see in Allen,no matter how many receivers he over throws. The physical skills are definitely there, but when I look at Josh Allen, I see more Ryan Mallet than Big Ben. I see more Charlie Frye than Carson Wentz and I see more Christian Ponder than Phillip Rivers.
With the proper coaching, support and patience maybe Josh Allen will be a great pro. I do believe that the odds however are stacked against Allen going to Cleveland right now, I’m skeptical about every quarterback in this years draft, but for what it’s worth here’s how I rank the quarterback class based on NFL potential.
- Josh Rosen
- Baker Mayfield
- Sam Darnold
- Mason Rudolph
- Josh Allen
- Lamar Jackson
- Luke Falk
It really hurts for me to list Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson. I placed Allen fifth because I have bought into his strong arm and physical potential a little bit as well. However, if we are talking about how the those seven quarterbacks rank based off college performance alone, then Josh Allen is easily seventh.
Like always the situation that any quarterback gets drafted into will have a lot to do with his future success. I am sure that at least six of the top incoming rookie quarterbacks would be fine in Pittsburgh or New England; where five of those same six may fail in Cleveland. The same can be said about Deshone Kizer last season, and basically every other Cleveland quarterback since 1999. There was no patience or support system for Kizer last season. With Kizer being traded to Green Bay, I honestly believe today, that the odds of Deshone Kizer becoming an elite NFL quarterback are better than the odds that Josh Allen ever will.
On a positive note, I believe that regardless of who the Browns pick, if Tyrod Taylor can start all 16 games next season, with a healthy Jarvis Landry and Josh Gordon, it will be in the best long term interest of any rookie quarterback that “we” select. Despite
Despite all the questions surrounding the quarterbacks in the upcoming draft, in today’s NFL the Browns basically have to take a quarterback at number one or number four. I would love to see Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield be selected at #1 or #4, with Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson or Luke Falk also being selected after the first round.
Still when it comes to Josh Allen I say, “don’t do it Cleveland!”
But at the end of the day I’m a Browns fan. So to the Cleveland Browns, even if you ignore my words and you do draft Josh Allen, I will be pulling for him and your entire organization to make me eat my words.”
But in case you don’t get this right…Shea Patterson or Drew Lock?
How do you feel?
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