APRIL 19 MLB FREE PICK

After going 0-2 in Major League Baseball on Monday April 16, we bounced back with a 5-0 Tuesday and 2-0 Wednesday.

Can we make it eight straight wins in MLB with value of at least -114 or better?

Check out our free pick. We also have another MLB Pick available for tonight along with the NBA but you have to subscribe for it on either sports watch monitor or capped sports below.

Good luck everyone.

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Wednesday April 18 FREE PICK

Yesterday we went 5-0 in MLB including the split pick with the Miami Marlins +267 Moneyline and the Miami Marlins +1.5. The day was our best day so far.

Yesterdays results:

Blue Jays -1.5 (-109) Game 1 WIN
Marlins ML (+267) and Miami Marlins +1.5 (+125)WIN
Nationals ML -112 WIN
Cardinals ML +119.0 WIN

We are currently now 16-10 on the season, up 10.24 units.  Here is our play for Wednesday April 11.

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians 7:10pm EST

Projected Starters: Twins: Berrios (2-1, 2.18 ERA) vs Indians: Carrasco (3-0, 3.48 ERA) at Hato Rey Norte, Puerto Rico

Puerto Rican native Jose Berrios will be pitching in possibly the most emotional game in his major league career. Berrios is 2-2 when starting against Cleveland with an ERA of 5.31, however the numbers are inflated due to his rookie season. Last season Berrios was 1-0 against Cleveland, allowing one earned run and two hits over 7 2/3 innings.

Carlos Carrasco was 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA against the Twins last season.
In his career Carrasco is 5-6 when starting against the Twins with an ERA of 3.97. There are however, some Twins hitters with very good career numbers against Carrasco. Joe Mauer his hitting .458 lifetime against Carrasco, followed by Logan Morrison .375 and Miguel Sano .357

Hard to bet against Carrasco, but I like the Twins as an underdog in a game that I can see going either way. I also like the under, especially if you can still get under 8 at your sportsbook.

My pick: Minnesota Twins +116  (Two Units) and UNDER 8 Runs (Two Units)

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MLB FREE PICKS- TUESDAY APRIL 17

Monday was a tough day in MLB but a great day in the NBA!

We went 2-0 in our NBA picks with the Warriors -9.5 and the OVER 215.5 in the 76ers-Heat game.  However in baseball we were 0-2.

We took a chance with the underdog Texas Rangers who lost 8-4. Then in what looked to be a win, we saw the New York Mets head into the 8th inning with a 6-1 lead, only to allow six runs in that inning on their way to an 8-6 loss to the Washington Nationals. This drops our record to 11-10 on the season in Major League Baseball.

The show goes on today.  Due to some postponed games and late lines, there is a good chance that we will be playing at least one more game later today.

Miami Marlins at New York Yankees 6:35pm EST

Projected Starters: Marlin Garcia (0-0, 1.13) at Yankees:  Tanka (2-1, 5.19 ERA

50/50 would I pick the Marlins? No. But with these odds do I think they have a better chance then the value indicates? Absolutely.

Jarlin Garcia comes in with a 1.13 ERA average on this season. This includes pitching six innings of no hit baseball against the Mets and six innings of one hit ball against the Cubs.

Make sure to list Jarlin Garcia as the starting pitcher for the Marlins when making this pick. There is positive value here even if the Marlins lose by a run.

My Picks (2 parts): 

Part 1: Miami Marlins moneyline (+267.0) One Unit

Part 2: Miami Marlins +1,5 (+133) One Unit

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs 7:05 pm EST

Projected Starters: Cardinals: Wainwright (0-0, 5.06  at Cubs:  Chatwood (0-2, 4.91 ERA)

Cubs projected started Tyler Chatwood is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in four career games against the Cardinals.

Adam Wainwright is 10-2 with 3.79 career ERA at Wrigley Field. Value is on the Cardinals

My Pick: St. Louis Cardinals moneyline (+119.0) Two Units

 

***Currently we are still looking at several other games and this could turn into a 4 or possibly 5 pick day.  The rest of the picks will be available before game time to our subscribers.

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2018 Full NBA Playoff Prediction

For what it’s worth. Here are my full playoff predictions before any games are played. These predictions are not taking in to account value on the Vegas lines, just simply who I think will win.

First Round

Eastern Conference

(1) Toronto Raptors vs. (8) Washington Wizards
My pick: Raptors in 6

(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Milwaukee Bucks
My Pick: Bucks in 7

(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Miami Heat
My Pick: 76ers in 6

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Indiana Pacers
My Pick: Cavaliers in 7

 

Western Conference

(1) Houston Rockets vs. (8) Minnesota Timberwolves
My Pick: Rockets in 5

(2) Golden State Warriors vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs
My Pick: Warriors in 4

(3) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (6) New Orleans Pelicans
My Pick: Blazers in 7

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Utah Jazz
My Pick: Thunder in 7

Second Round
Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers over Toronto Raptors in 5 games
Philadelphia 76ers over Milwaukee Bucks in 6 games

Western Conference

Houston Rockets over Oklahoma City Thunder in 5 games
Golden State Warriors over Portland Trailblazers in 6 games

Eastern Conference Finals
Cleveland Cavaliers over Philadelphia 76ers in 6 games

Western Conference Finals
Houston Rockets over Golden State Warriors in 7 games

 

2018 NBA FINALS Cleveland Cavaliers vs Houston Rockets

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Cleveland over Rockets in 7 games…..

because this is my blog…

 

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APRIL 14 FREE MLB PICK

Friday the 13th lived up to the name. After consistently making no more than two plays a day, we made three picks yesterday and went 1-2. This drops our record to 10-8 on the season up 1.44 units.  We are scaling back to just one pick for tonight for three units.

Embed from Getty Images
 

Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins 7:10 pm EST

Projected Starters: Pirates: Taillon (2-0, 1.26) at Marlins: Richard (0-1, 8.64 ERA)

More juice then we have laid yet this season, , but I don’t expect the Pirates to lose again to the Marlins with Jameson Taillon on the mound.

 

My Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline (-152) Three Units 

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THREE FREE FRIDAY 13TH PICKS

Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins 7:10pm EST

Projected Starters: Pirates: Kuhl (1-0, 5.06 ERA) at Marlins: Peters (1-1, 9.35 ERA)

Going with the Pirates with solid value here against the struggling Marlins. Pirates are 5-1 on the road this season and Miami is 2-7 at home.

The Over is 8-4 in Pirates games this season.

My 2 Picks for this game:

1) OVER 8 Runs Three Units

2) Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline (-123.0) Two Units Units

Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians 7:10pm EST

Projected Starters: Toronto: Stroman 0-1, 8.38 ERA) at Indians: Clevinger (0-1, 0.71 ERA)

Stroman is off to a tough start this season but is 2-0 with a 1.20 earned run average at Progressive Field in his career. Overall against Cleveland has a 4-1 record and 2.17 earned run average in his career.
The Indians jumed all over a good pitcher in Michael Fulmer, but Fulmer’s past success against Cleveland does not match what Stroman has done.
Cleveland starter Mike Clevinger is one of the more under rated young pitchers in baseball right now.

Under is 7-1 in last 8 Cleveland games. Under is 8-4 in Toronto games this season.

My pick: UNDER 9.0 Runs  Three Units

 

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APRIL 12 MLB FREE PICK

Yesterday the Indians -1.5 were an easy cover with a 5-1 win over Detroit. We are currently now 9-5 on the season, up 7.8 units.  Here is our play for Wednesday April 11.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians 6:10pm EST

Projected Starters: Tigers: Fulmer (1-1, 0.68 ERA) at Indians: Bauer (0-1, 2.08 ERA)

The total has finished at less than  eight runs combined in 7 out of their last 8 games Detroit has played.

The total has finished at less than seven runs in the last 7 Cleveland games.

Both teams have been poor offensively this season but pitched well.

I am aware that the OVER is 10-1 in Bauer’s last 11 starts against Detroit, but this will be Bauer’s first start against Detroit since May 2017. Since August 2017 Bauer has been pitching the best of his career.

With the strong pitching match-up and the run total swinging all the way from 7.5 to 8.5, I feel the time is right for the UNDER

 

My pick: UNDER 8.5 Runs  Three Units

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APRIL 11 MLB FREE PICK

Yesterday was our worst MLB day so far this season going 0-2.  We are currently now 8-5 on the season, still up 5.8 units.  Here is our play for Wednesday April 11.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians 6:10pm EST

Projected Starters: Tigers: Zimmerman (0-0, 8.71 ERA) at Indians: Carrasco (2-0, 5.40 ERA)

We took a chance on the Tigers last night as a +182 underdog against the Indians, and the Tigers fell 2-1. I really thought yesterday’s game was good value and the second best chance the Tigers would have at taking at least one game in this four game series.  Stranger things have happened, but tonight’s match-up is not set up well for the Tigers.

The Indians are 11-1 in Carrasco’s last 12 starts against the Tigers.  Last season in six starts against Detroit, Carrasco was 4-1 with a 1.82 earned run average. Carrasco’s one loss to Detroit came in a 4-1 game on April 16, 2017 where Tiger’s pitcher Matt Boyd out-dueled him.

Unlike Boyd, the Tiger’s projected stater Jordan Zimmerman has not been able to put together quality starts against Cleveland in his past. Zimmerman is 0-4 with an ERA of 10.88 in his career against the Tribe.  Zimmerman’s first two starts this season have also left little reason for optimism. So far this year he has allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs over only 10 1/3 innings of work.

My biggest concern here working against the Indians is the fact that Cleveland has only scored a total of 14 runs, and no more than three runs total in any game, over their last seven games played overall. But  Zimmerman may be just what the doctor ordered for the Tribe bats to get going.

Detroit has not been an offensive juggernaut themselves so far. The Tigers have already been shutout three times this season and limited to just one run in two other games.

 

My pick: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123)  Two Units

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