The Miami Heat are off to a 5-1 start overall and against the spread. The Dallas Mavericks are 4-2 overall and 2-4 against the spread.
After an embarrassing 106-75 road loss to Denver on the second night of a back-to-back, the Mavericks bounced back with a 105-99 win as a four-point home favorite against the Sacramento Kings on Saturday. The Miami Heat are riding a four-game winning steak into Dallas after a dominant 129-103 road victory as a 3.5-point underdog to the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday.
Through six games, the Miami Heat have been the most balanced team in the NBA on both ends, ranking third offensively, scoring 114 ppg, sixth shooting 46.3% from the floor, and ninth knocking down 34.7% of their threes. Jimmy Butler’s 25.3 points and 2.8 steals per game lead the team, and he is also grabbing seven rebounds and dishing out 5.5 assists per contest. Tyler Hero is next up, averaging 22 ppg off the bench, and Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.6 ppg and fourth in the NBA, grabbing 14 rebounds per game. Adebayo is listed as questionable for Tuesday with a knee contusion, which will be a big blow to the Heat if he cannot play.
The Heat are second in the NBA in defensive scoring, holding opponents to just 97 ppg, and first holding opponents to shooting 39% from the floor.
The Dallas Mavericks have a winning record despite a -4.7 point differential this season, as they are 28th averaging 98.3 ppg and 30th shooting 40.4% from the field offensively. Defensively Dallas is eighth in the NBA, allowing 103 ppg, and 14th with opponents shooting 44.2 % from the floor. As usual, 22-yard old superstar Luka Doncic leads the team averaging 22.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game. After Luka, all other Dallas players are averaging less than 14 ppg this season.
Kristapa Porzingis, who has averaged 12.7 points and six rebounds in three games, is questionable for Tuesday.
Pick Miami Heat-2
The Dallas Mavericks have struggled, ranking 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, making this a bad matchup against a Heat team that leads the NBA in defensive efficiency. Dallas has been solid on the other end of the floor, ranking 12th in team defensive efficiency, but the Heat have been better, ranking fourth in offensive efficiency.
The Heat have covered the spread in four straight games, and Dallas has dropped its last six games against the spread when coming off a straight-up win. I will take the Heat to cover here.
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