2023 AFC North Betting Predictions

by David Delano

Here are my OVER/ UNDER win total betting predictions for the AFC North with odds provided by Fan Duel.

Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 11.5 (-144)

The Bengals only went 10-7 during the regular season in 2021 and went on to reach the Super Bowl. Last year, the Bengals started just 4-4 but ended the season on an eight-game winning streak. Given the competitive balance of the division, to win 12 games the Bengals will have to be dominant almost every week, especially outside of the AFC North. With road trips to San Francisco, Jacksonville, and Kansas City on the schedule and a challenging home showdown against the Bills, I see at least six losses on the schedule.

Baltimore Ravens OVER 10.5 (-102)

John Harbaugh is the NFL’s third most-tenured head coach and led the Ravens to a 10-7 regular record last season despite Lamar Jackson missing the final five games. Baltimore went 8-4 in the games Jackson started, and every game was winnable, including a 42-38 loss to Miami, a 23-20 loss to Buffalo, and a 28-27 loss at Jacksonville. The Ravens should benefit from some home cooking early, as they do not have to play a true road game against any of their first five non-divisional opponents (they will face Titans in London on Oct. 15). I see the Ravens getting off to a hot start, and holding on to win at least 11 games.

Cleveland Browns UNDER 9.5 (-134)

The Browns have only won more than 10 games once in the last 15 seasons, which came in 2020 when they went 11-5. The two seasons since have been disappointments, as Cleveland finished 8-9 in 2021 and 7-10 last season. Under head coach Kevin Stefanski, the Browns have found ways to consistently lose winnable games despite having talent.

The Browns hope quarterback DeShaun Watson will be ready to lead them into contention this season. But we must remember that Watson has only played six total games in the last two seasons and has a 7-15 record as a starting quarterback over the previous two seasons he has played in. Given the strength of the AFC North, the Browns will likely need to go at least 7-4 in their challenge schedule outside the division, which home games against the 49ers, Jaguars, Bears, and Jets and road trips to Seattle and Denver will not be easy victories. Getting more than eight wins is going to take a lot of work.

Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 8.5 (-150)

When in doubt, bet on Mike Tomlin, especially when counting on long-term success. Tomlin has been the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers since 2007, which is the second longest active tenure in the NFL behind only Bill Belichick. In his 16 years, Tomlin has never had a losing season, and I don’t see that streak ending soon.

Last season, the outlook was much less optimistic, and the Steelers lost seven of their first 10 games. Despite the rough start, the team never lost hope and improved, winning six of their last seven games and barely missing the playoffs with a 9-8 record. This year, the Steelers should take a step forward, led by quarterback Kenny Pickett, who gained valuable experience last season. Pittsburg also has a favorable schedule, with four games against the AFC South and favorable matchups against the Raiders, Rams, and Cardinals. The team also has the luxury of playing what are expected to be their most challenging early-season contests at home.

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