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By David Delano Marotta

The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (13-4, 5-0 MAC) will host the Bowling Green Falcons (7-10, 2-3 MAC) in a Mid-American Conference game on Tuesday.

These teams have split their last six head-to-head meetings, neither winning nor covering in consecutive games over that stretch.

Bowling Greens lacks a strong identity

Bowling Green has lacked consistency this season and is struggling to surpass mediocrity. Bowling Green went 3-7 against Division I schools in non-conference play and is coming off a 68-62 loss at home to Eastern Michigan as a seven-point favorite. The Falcons shot 34.5% from the floor and just under 23% from three in the loss. Marcus Johnson led BG with 18 points in the defeat, followed by Trey Johnson, who scored 16 points but went 0 for 8 from three-point range.

The Falcons are fifth in the MAC averaging 76.6 ppg, and sixth allowing 74.6. According to barttorvik.com, BG rates as the ninth-best team in the 12-team conference. Four Falcons average over 11 ppg, led by Johnson with 16.4 ppg, and Derrick Butler and Javonte who both averaging 14.1 ppg.

Miami Ohio at the top of the MAC

Miami is off to a great start to a season that they hope will end with their first conference tournament championship and NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007. Kam Craft has led the team with 15.4 ppg, Peter Suder (14.2 ppg) and Eian Elmer (12.3 ppg).

The Red Hawks have won seven straight games and are coming off a 70-61 road win over Kent State. Bryant Byers scored a team-high 15 points off the bench in the win. Byers, a 6’8 freshman, has played a crucial role off the bench, averaging 7.5 ppg off the bench in less than 16 minutes per game while knocking down 47.5% from three-point range.

Miami is rated third in the MAC according to Bartorvik. The Redhawks are also 5-0 ATS in conference games.

ATS Prediction for Bowling Green vs. Miami – OH

I can’t trust my alma mater on the road in this matchup. Bowling Green ranks 272nd in offensive efficiency and 273rd on defense, while Miami stands at 131st on offense and 185th defensively. The Redhawks lead the MAC in three-point shooting percentage (40.3%), rank first in turnover margin, and are fourth in rebounding margin. In comparison, Bowling Green ranks eighth in rebounding margin, fifth in three-point percentage (34.1%), and seventh in turnover margin. Miami has covered the spread in their last six games, and I expect them to make it seven. Take Miami.

Prediction: Miami Ohio -10

Toledo Prediction for Bowling Green vs. Miami – OH

Miami has seen both of its MAC home games go over the total, and Bowling Green has seen each of its conference road games go over. I expect to see the over trends continue as Miami is an excellent outside shooting team that is 130th in adjusted tempo. Bowling Green plays even faster, rated 74th in the adjusted team, and we will see a lot quick scoring opportunities on both sides. I like the over.

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