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SMU Mustangs (14-4, 5-2 ACC) will host the Louisville Cardinals (14-5, 7-1 ACC) on Tuesday, January 21.

Louisville has turned things around

Louisville has been impressive this season, currently boasting an 11-8 record against the spread and sitting tied for second in the ACC, trailing only Duke. The Cardinals are on an eight-game winning streak and are ranked 29th overall in the KenPom ratings, with notable efficiency on both ends of the floor—32nd in offensive efficiency and 43rd on defense. Their strong schedule, ranked 12th in strength of competition, includes tough losses to Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Duke, and Kentucky. Most recently, they beat Virginia for the second time this season, winning 81-67 victory. Louisville also beat Virginia 70-50 on the road on Jan. 4.

Offensively, Louisville ranks fifth in the ACC and 100th nationally, averaging 78.4 points per game. However, their shooting has been inconsistent, with a field goal percentage of 43.7% (247th) and a three-point shooting percentage of 30.7% (319th). They compensate by averaging 9.4 three-pointers per game, ranking 60th. Defensively, the Cardinals allow 69.6 points per game, ranking sixth in the ACC. They are also fifth in the conference with a +2.3 turnover margin, and third with a +5.2 edge in rebounding margin.

Chucky Hepburn leads the team in scoring (15.2 points), assists (5.8), and steals (2.6), while J’Vonne Hadley grabs a team-high 7.6 rebounds per game.

SMU off a 43-point win

SMU extended their winning streak to three games with a dominant 117-74 road victory over Miami on Saturday. The Mustangs had seven players score in double figures, shooting an impressive 69% from the field and 56% from three-point range in the win. Ranked 39th overall in the KenPom ratings, SMU boasts a well-rounded performance this season, holding a 14-4 overall record and a 5-2 mark in the ACC. Their offense has been a standout, ranking 25th in efficiency, while their defense is solid at 77th. SMU is eighth in the ACC with a +1.7 turnover margin advantage, and third with a +7.8 rebounding edge over their opponents.

Key players have been instrumental to SMU’s success. Boopie Miller leads the team with 14.7 points and 6.0 assists per game, while Matt Cross controls the boards with 8.0 rebounds per game. B.J. Edwards has been a defensive force, averaging 2.4 steals per game.

SMU’s offensive strength is further highlighted by their top-40 national rankings in field goals made, three-point shooting percentage, and free throws made. This potent offense, combined with a strong defensive presence, positions the Mustangs as a formidable contender in the ACC.

ATS Prediction for SMU vs Louisville

This matchup should be a lot of fun to watch and marks the only regular-season meeting between these two teams. SMU is riding a wave of momentum after back-to-back road wins and now returns home, where they hold an 8-2 straight-up record and are ranked 42nd in the nation on their home court by Barttorvik.com. While Louisville has performed well on the road, their shooting has been inconsistent. In contrast, SMU is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. Despite the Cardinals having a strong season and excelling on the boards against most opponents, SMU has been the top rebounding team in the ACC. With such a closely contested matchup, I’m siding with the home team. SMU is the play for me.

Prediction: SMU -1.5 (-105)

Total Prediction for SMU vs Louisville

Get ready for a fast-paced showdown at Moody Coliseum on Tuesday night. Louisville ranks 126th in adjusted tempo, placing them near the top third of the nation’s quickest-paced offensive teams. SMU moves even faster, ranking 65th in adjusted tempo. Both teams rank in the top 9% nationally in adjusted efficiency and will likely exchange plenty of offensive blows. Louisville has scored at least 81 points in each of their last three games, while SMU is averaging 84.8 points per game this season. I’m backing the over in this matchup.

Prediction: Over 156.5