Saturday Feb. 24 NBA Free Plays

Here are my personal picks for tonight’s NBA Action.

 Oklahoma City Thunder (+10.0) at
 Golden State Warriors (-10.0) over +233.0

Game time: Saturday 2/24, 8:35 PM

I am going with Oklahoma City a double digit dog again.
The Thunder have won their first two match-ups against the Warriors this season by 17 and 20 points respectively, despite being the underdog going into both games.

Revenge should be on the Warriors mind, but the Thunder have room for error and reason to feel disrespected here as ten point underdog.

My Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder (+10.0)

 

Portland Trail Blazers (-7.0) at
 Phoenix Suns (+7.0) over +221.0

Game time: Saturday 2/24, 9:05 PM

The Phoenix Suns are only 1-7 against the spread as an underdog against a team who is coming off of a straight up underdog win.

The Trailer Blazers defeated the Utah Jazz 100-81 last night despite being a +4 point underdog.  The Blazers are also 12-5-2 against the spread in their last 19 games playing on no days of rest.

My pick: Portland Trail Blazers (-7.0) 

 

 Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5) at
 Sacramento Kings (+1.5) over +221.5

Game time: Saturday 2/24,10:05 PM

The Lakers are 0-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread this season when they play a team that has a  .400 winning percentage or worse on no days rest.

The Kings are  7-1 against the spread in their last 8 when their opponent scores at least  in their previous game. The Kings are 9-4 in their last 13 games against the spread overall.

My pick: Sacramento Kings Moneyline (+114.0)

 

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Friday Feb. 23 NBA Free Plays

Here are my personal picks for tonight’s NBA Action.

 Boston Celtics (-2.0) at
 Detroit Pistons (+2.0) over +208.0

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Game time: Friday 2/23, 7:05 PM

The Detroit Pistons are 11-1 against the spread against teams with a .600 or greater winning percentage this season.

The Celtics are 1-4 against the spread in their last five game. The Celtics are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games following an against the spread loss.

My Pick: Detroit Pistons (+2.0) 

 San Antonio Spurs (+3.0) at
 Denver Nuggets (-3.0) over +213.0

Game time: Friday 2/23, 9:05 PM

Denver is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games.

Spurs are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games.

My Pick:  Denver Nuggets (-3.0) 

 Portland Trail Blazers (+4.0) at
 Utah Jazz (-4.0) over +207.0

Game time: Friday 2/23, 9:05 PM

Utah has won 11 straight games overall and 8-3 against the spread.

The home team is 8-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings.

My Pick Utah Jazz (-4.0)

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Vegas Predictions Based on Lebron James

LBJ

A brief segment regarding the Vegas odds surrounding the Cleveland Cavaliers season and the future of Lebron James. 

Listen here: https://anchor.fm/e/2468adc?at=2603942

We will discuss the odds to win the Eastern Conference:

***Cleveland Cavaliers +150

Boston Celtics +200

Toronto Raptors +300

What team will Lebron James Play for to begin the 2018-19 season?

***Cleveland Cavaliers +275

Houston Rockets +275

Los Angeles Lakers +400

 

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NBA Free Vegas Plays-Tuesday Jan. 30

Here are two personal plays that I recommend for tonight’s NBA Action.

Cleveland Cavaliers (29-19) at Detroit Pistons (22-26)

Tuesday, January 30, 2018  8:00 PM ET
Line: Cleveland Cavaliers -2 point favorites, Over/Under 218.5 points

The Cleveland Cavaliers numbers against the spread have not been pretty on the road.  The Cavs will head into this game with a dismal 1-11 record against the spread in their last 12 road games.


At -2, this is pretty close to a pick’em.  Despite the Cavs recent bad stretch, the Cavs have now won two straight games against the spread, including a 121-104 home win against the Pistons two nights ago.
A lot has changed in less than 24 hours since that game. The Pistons have now acquired Blake Griffin in a trade that sent their two leading scorers Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley to the Clippers.

The Pistons have lost eight straight games overall and have a 1-7 record against the spread during the current losing streak. This will be the third match-up between these teams this season with Cleveland winning 116-88 at Detroit on Nov. 20, and 121-104 in Cleveland this past Sunday, Jan. 28.

With the recent trade, I expect the Pistons to sell more tickers with Blake Griffin, but necessarily become a better team. As for just tonight, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the better team. Then once you add in the extra distractions and team chemistry issues, I definitely don’t expect the Pistons to beat a Cavs team with a lot to prove.

Get Sports Strong Pick: Cleveland -2 

Denver Nuggets (26-24) at San Antonio Spurs (33-19)

Tuesday, January 30, 2018  8:30 PM ET
Line: San Antonio Spurs -7 point favorites, Over/Under 202.5 points 

The Spurs will be hosting the Nuggets for the second time this season. On January 13th the Spurs defeated the Nuggets 112-80 in San Antonio.

The Nuggets are 2-8-2 against the spread in their last 12 games.

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The Spurs are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games. Overall in this series, the Spurs are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games against the Nuggets.

Get Sports Strong Pick: San Antonio -7

 

Good luck everyone!

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(Oklahoma City Thunder 4-5) at (Sacramento Kings 1-8) Free NBA Pick

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(Oklahoma City Thunder 4-5) at (Sacramento Kings 1-8)

Oklahoma City will head into Sacramento Thursday night hoping to improve their record to .500 and continue to keep improving their overall team chemistry. The Kings good be just want the Thunder need to get going in the right direction and end their two game losing streak.

The Kings are 0-3 at home this season. Atlanta is the only other winless home team in the NBA this season. After covering in the first team games of the season, the Kings have gone 0-6-1 against the spread in their last seven games. The Kings last game against the Pistons was a nine point loss that ended in a PUSH on a late Zach Randolph three point shot.

When the Thunder have won this season, they’ve won big. All four of the Thunder’s wins this season have been by at least 18 points. Oklahoma City is also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Oklahoma City is also 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games as a road favorite of between 5 and 10.5 points.

The Kings are a young team looking for an identity. Their leading scorer is currently De’Aaron who is averaging 12.7 only points per game.

Oklahoma City has dropped their last two games against Boston and Portland , and should be focused to get back on track. I expect the Thunder to win easy.

Get Sports Strong Pick: Oklahoma City -10

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2017-2018 NBA Packages for Sale

2016-17 NBA Regular Season Results:  52 wins 44 losses

+4147 ($100 a game bettor won over $414)

2017 NBA Playoffs: 21 wins 8 losses

+4848  ($100 a game bettor won over $484)

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Total NBA Including Playoffs (73 wins 52 losses, 58.4% winning percentage +8996 units)

$100 a game bettors won $899!

$500 a game bettors won over $4400!

Oct. 17, 2017 FREE PLAY (1 UNIT ONLY) Celtics +4

Lebron James is questionable as of 12:30 pm EST. I expect him to go tonight, however this should be a close game even with Lebron at 100%.  If news comes out later today  that Lebron can not go, this line will shift dramatically.

A lot of new pieces in place for both teams. The Cavaliers have less 3 point shooting firepower in their starting lineup. I also expect Cleveland to come out a play a slower pace.

I am taking the Celtics +4, but easing into the season slow with a 1 unit play here.

What does 1 UNIT Mean?

My average NBA play last season was 5 units

For an average $250 (5 unit a game player), I recommend a $50 play for this pick.

For a regular $100 (5 unit a game player) I recommend $20 for this pick.

For a regular $10 (5 unit a game player) I recommend $2 for this pick.

 

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2017 NBA Finals Game 2 Pick

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+368 is a big number. That’s how big of a moneyline underdog Vegas has the defending World Champion Cleveland Cavaliers going into Game 2 of the NBA Finals. For those new to sports gambling and unfamiliar with reading lines, +368 means that a $100 bet will win you a $368 profit on the Cavaliers. On the other side of things, a $100 moneyline bet on the Golden State Warriors will net a profit of only $27.17.

After a dominating 22 point victory by the Warriors in Game 1, it’s easy to overreact and believe that the Cavaliers have no chance in Game 2. Cleveland looked unmotivated and unprepared in the opening match-up and did a poor job of protecting the basketball with 20 turnovers for the game compared to just four turnovers by the Warriors.

In Lebron’s career coming into this series, Lebron has won three of the seven NBA Finals that he has participated in. In the three seasons that Lebron James’ teams won the NBA championship in (Miami 2, Cleveland 1), his teams have lost seven games overall between the 2012 (one loss), 2013 (3 losses) and 2016 NBA finals (3 losses). Six of those seven loses were by double digits. Lebron James’ team also lost Game 1 in all three of those championship seasons.

If we look at just Lebron’s six straight finals appearance prior to this series (2011-2016), five out of six of those series were tied at 1-1 after Game 2 with the exception of last season when Cleveland fell behind 2-0, losing both games by a combined total of 48 points ,before coming back to win the series in seven games.

That takes me to my prediction. In the last 11 games overall between the Warriors and Cavs, the Warriors hold a 6-5 edge against the Moneyline. But the moneymen winner is 11-0 against the spread in those games. That means the last 11 times that Golden State and Cleveland have faced each other the outright winner also covered the spread. So if you like the Warriors, take the Warriors as 8.5 point favorites to cover, but stay away from the Warriors moneyline at -368, it’s just not good value. But if you like Cleveland why settle for the -110 odds at +8.5 points? Go for the +368 Moneyline! Obviously Cleveland is are a big underdog, but if you win only 22% of the bets you make betting on a +368 underdog, guess what you will turn a profit!

There’s no guarantee here, and remember, there’s always a chance you can lose either way. But if you want the best value, and best chance to turn a large profit, the best play here is to go with King James and the defending World Champion Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline +368. Do you believe the King deserves better than a a 22% chance?

 

 

 

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2017 NBA Finals Get Sports Strong Prediction

2017 NBA Finals Quick Prediction

steph-curry-lebron-james

I’m going to get straight to the point….

It’s not often in sports at any level where the championship at the end of the season turns out to have the two teams that everyone predicted before the season even started.

When you are looking at this series from a gamblers point of view, if you decide to play this series, my advice is to go with the Cavaliers.  Currently an $100 bet on Cleveland will win you $230. A $100 bet on Golden State will only gain a $40 profit.

My Vegas Play: Cleveland Cavaliers +230

Prediction Cavs in 6 games

 

Thoughts going into the series:

The Cavs and Warriors have spilt the last 10 match-ups 5-5. In all ten of those games the moneyline winner also covered the spread.

The first 6 games of last years NBA finals were all decided by 11 points or more.

 

Western Conference Finals Prediction

The Western Conference Finals is here. With so many people already penciling in Warriors-Cavaliers III, there seems to be no point in even playing this series if you listen to many experts.

I believe the Spurs deserve more respect then they are getting and I do not expect the Warriors to just walk into the NBA finals.

160108205255-kawhi-leonard-stephen-curry-san-antonio-spurs-v-golden-state-warriors---game-six.1200x672When you are looking at this series from a gamblers point of view, if you decide to play this series, my advice is to go with the Spurs.  You may think I am crazy, but if you are playing against Vegas you are playing by their odds.

The Spurs were +700 underdogs at one point meaning that a $100 bet on the Spurs would win you $700. Currently before tip off the Warriors are -900 favorites, meaning that a $100 bet on the Warriors would only win you $11.  So if you are betting $100 and have it to lose, what is the better investment, $100 to win $700 on San Antonio or risking $100 to win only $11 on Golden State?

I have made a play on the Spurs +700 to win the series.  However, with all money equal my prediction would be Warriors in 7. But in Vegas the odds are not equal, so I am taking the Spurs to shock the world.

 

Game One Pick: Spurs +10.5