Jan. 21 AFC/NFC Championship Predictions

After the first two rounds I am 1-3 on over/under and against the spread picks in this seasons NFL playoffs, but 2-0 on teasers. This week I am making predictions for both games, although I am not personally recommending playing game either game against the spread or over/under straight up.

Now with news about Tom Brady being questionable for Sunday, there is a lot of uncertainty around what to expect in the AFC Championship. Even though I am not personally making wagers on either game individually, for fun I am giving my predictions.
My personal recommendation is a two team +7 parlay. Hopefully our record will move to 3-0 on teasers in this NFL postseason.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)  3:05pm EST

Lines: New England -8  O/U 45

Before Tom Brady was listed as questionable I had the Patriots covering here. Since 2014 the Patriots are 8-1 straight up in their last nine playoff games. The Patriots are also 5-0 against the spread in their last five playoff games overall.

Brady’s status could all be smoke and mirrors, nevertheless it is enough for me to stay away from the Patriots covering by more than a touchdown at the moment.

Looking at the total here, the under is 5-2 in the Patriots last seven AFC Championship games. The under is also 7-3 in Jaguars last ten games as a road underdog between 3.5 and 10 points.

I recommend teasing this +7 points and taking the under 52 points.

Get Sports Strong Prediction: New England 24 Jacksonsville 20 

Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Philadephia Eagles  (14-3) 6:40pm EST

Lines: Minnesota -3.5  O/U 39

I expect a close low scoring game here. The under is 3-1 in the Eagles games since Nick Foles took over for the injured Carson Wentz.  The under is also 10-2 in the Viking’s last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record.

I am using this my second part of a team two teaser UNDER 46 points.

Get Sports Strong Prediction: Minnesota 20 Philadephia 17

Recommendation: Two Teaser +7 Jacksonsville at New England UNDER 52 points and Vikings at Eagles UNDER 46 points)

 

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NFC Divisional Playoffs Picks and College Football Bowl Results

NFC Divisional Playoff Free Picks and my thoughts on the Cleveland Browns winless season parade.

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College Football Final Bowl Results

Date Game Pick Rating Result
1/8/2018
8:20 PM
26 Alabama
23 Georgia
-172
5
Win
1/1/2018
5:10 PM
54 Georgia
48 Oklahoma
125
5
Loss
1/1/2018
5:10 PM
54 Georgia
48 Oklahoma
61 un -110
5
Loss
1/1/2018
1:00 PM
17 LSU
21 Notre Dame
+3 (102)
5
Win
12/30/2017
12:30 PM
21 Iowa State
20 Memphis
+4 (-110)
8
Win
12/29/2017
1:00 PM
52 Texas A&M
55 Wake Forest
-150
6
Win
12/26/2017
9:00 PM
35 Kansas State
17 UCLA
-2.5 (-110)
8
Win
12/26/2017
5:20 PM
14 No Illinois
36 Duke
+6 (-110)
8
Loss
12/26/2017
1:30 PM
30 Utah
14 West Virginia
+7 (-110)
8
Loss
12/23/2017
7:00 PM
34 Appalachian St
0 Toledo
+8 (-110)
8
Win
12/23/2017
7:00 PM
34 Appalachian St
0 Toledo
61 ov -110
8
Loss
12/23/2017
12:00 PM
34 Texas Tech
38 South Florida
66 ov -110
8
Win
12/22/2017
4:05 PM
14 Central Michigan
37 Wyoming
+3 (-110)
8
Loss
12/21/2017
8:00 PM
28 Temple
3 Florida Intl
55.5 ov -110
8
Loss
12/16/2017
3:35 PM
28 Oregon
38 Boise State
+7.5 (-110)
8
Win
12/16/2017
3:35 PM
28 Oregon
38 Boise State
61 ov -110
8
Win
12/16/2017
2:35 PM
27 Georgia State
17 Western Kentucky
-5 (-106)
8
Loss
12/16/2017
1:00 PM
30 North Texas
50 Troy
-5.5 (-106)
8
Win
12/16/2017
12:00 PM
21 N. Carolina A&T
14 Grambling
+9.5 (-110)
8
Win

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NFL Wildcard Picks Saturday Jan. 6

Titans Chiefs FootballTennessee Titans (9-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

My Pick: Titans +9

Titans are averaging 20.9 points per game and allowing 22.2 point per game.  The Chiefs are averaging 25.9 points per game and allowing 21.2

Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has been inconsistent this season but has never thrown a red zone interception in his career.

The Titans are 4-1-1 against the spread this season against teams who finished the season with a winning record. Overall, I think nine points is too many. I like the Titans to cover the +9 spread.

Get Sports Strong Prediction: Chiefs 21 Titans 16

Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

My Pick: OVER 48.5

The Rams led the NFL in averaging just under 30 points per game.  The Falcons are averaging 22.1 points per game. Both teams have been solid defensively during the regular season with the Rams allowing 20.6 points per game and the Falcons allowing 19.7 points per game.

The Over is 5-0 in the Falcons last five playoff games. Over is 3-1-1 in Falcons last five road games against a team with a winning home record.

The Over is 10-5 in Rams games this season, including the last five straight.

Get Sports Strong Prediction: Rams 31 Falcons 24

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NFL Week 13 Free Pick

The Cleveland Browns 0-11 and Los Angeles Chargers 5-6 will face each other Sunday in a rematch from last season. Currently both teams are headed in opposite directions when it comes to momentum. The Browns have been historically terrible, with a 1-29 record in their 30 games overall. While the Chargers have now gone 5-2 over their last seven games, after a 0-4 start, and are very much alive in the AFC West playoff picture. However, the Charges are the only team to lose to the Browns since Dec. 13, 2015. The Chargers were defeated by the Browns 20-17, in Cleveland on week 16 last season.

 

The Browns will look for a spark with the freakishly talented wide receiver Josh Gordon expected to return. What is unexpected is how effective Gordon will be. Gordon has not played in at regular season game since Dec. 21, 2014, still the Chargers will definitely need to know where he is on the field at all times.

Currently the Chargers are 14 point favorites. I am staying away from the spread here. Although 14 points is high, you will not catch me advising anyone to use their money to bet on the Browns.

Cleveland has been terrible both straight up and against the spread all the way around. Cleveland is 6-20-1 over their last 27 games against the AFC and 5-15-1 against the spread in their last 21 road games. This season the Browns are 2-9 against the spread, worst in the NFL.

I do not expect the Chargers to take the Browns lightly at all, who wants to be the only team to lose to the Browns twice over the last 31 games the Browns have played?

My recommended play here is the OVER. If you like the Chargers against the spread, then you have to lean towards the over, unless you think Cleveland scores lest than 14 points. Even if you feel like betting on the Browns, which I don’t recommend, look at the over as well.

The over is 5-1 in Browns games away from Cleveland this season. This includes the 4-1 over/under record in true road games, plus the neutral field game in London that went over as well. Seeing that the Over is 0-5 in Browns home games this season, this team has clearly been a team to bet the over on when on the road. The only Cleveland road game that went under this season was week two, when the Browns fell to the Ravens 24-10, on their first road test of the season. Since then the Browns have allowed at least 30 points in their last five games away from Cleveland.

The Chargers rank fifth in the NFL in positive turnover margin while the Browns rank dead last. The Chargers have a lot to play for here and due to losing to the Browns last season, expect Los Angeles to come out even more motivated. I expect over 30 points from the Chargers here. On the other side, Browns quarter back Deshone Kizer has started to play better as of late, and the Browns should be good for at least 14 points. I predict Chargers 34 Browns 20 , however I am only playing the over/under, not the point spread.

Get Sports Strong Pick: OVER 42.5

Good luck!

 

(Get Sports Strong 2017 NFL Record on NFL Picks 22-18)

 

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Super Bowl 51 Quick Prediction

With so many Super Bowl predictions out there, I am going to get straight to the point. I like the Patriots in this game for three major reasons: Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense.

The New England Patriots (16-2) are making their 9th Super Bowl, appearance  while the Atlanta Falcons (13-6) will be in their second Super Bowl in franchise history.

Both of these teams are explosive offensively, but the New England Patriots defense lead the league in scoring defense, giving up just 15.6 ppg.

 

 

My prediction:

New England 34 Atlanta 29

New England -3 and OVER 58 points

Other bets

Football – First Touchdown Scorer

TD & FG Props @ Super Bowl 51

Devonta Freeman (ATL) +800

Chris Hogan (NE) +1200

Julio Jones (ATL) +750

Tom Brady (NE) +2500

Saturday Jan 8 NFL Wildcard picks

Oakland Radiers (12-4) at Houston Texans (9-7)

This will be a week 11 rematch-up of the Raiders 27-20 victory on Monday night in Mexico City. The Texans competed hard before the Raiders pulled out the win with the help of a couple controversial calls and three touchdown passes by Oakland quarterback Derek Carr.

This time around the stakes are much higher. Both teams head into Saturday with question marks at the quarterback position. Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler has been inconsistent throughout the 15 games he has appeared in this season throwing 15 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions. However, after a brief benching, due to concussion to quarterback Tom Savage, Osweiler is back at the helm to face a Raiders team that he actually posted his highest single QBR of the season (82.7) against during the first meeting.

The Raiders will be making history by being forced to turn to rookie quarter Connor Cook. Cook will become the first rookie in NFL history to make his first career start in a playoff game. Cook will be facing a Texans defense that ranks first in the NFL in yards allowed per game.

I expect a low scoring game with some ugly offensive play at times. In the end I think the Texans defense will be too much for Connor Cook on the road making his first career start on this stage.

Line: Texans -3.5 O/U 37.5

My Prediction Texans 17 Raiders 13

My Bet Texans UNDER 37.5

Detroit Lions (9-7) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

The Lions stumbled to the finish line but managed to earn the final wild card spot despite dropping their last three games of the season. All three losses did come to NFC playoff teams, the Giants, Cowboys and Packers respectively. On the season the Lions are 9-2 against non playoff teams but 0-5 against teams that will be participating in the postseason.

The Seahawks are 7-1 at home on the season and 3-1 overall against playoff teams. The Seahawks defense has run into some issues since safety Earl Thomas broke his leg against the Panthers on Dec. 4. With Earl Thomas on the field on this season the Seattle defense has allowed a 77.8 passer rating against 7 touchdown passed and 10 interceptions. Without Tomas, Seattle has allowed 99.5 quarterback rating and 9 touchdowns and only 1 interception.

Seattle is a tough place to play, and the Lions have history against them. The Lions have dropped 10 straight road playoff games since defeating the 49ers on Dec. 22, 1957. I don’t think this is the time for the Lions to break the streak.

Line: Seahawks -8 O/U 43.5

My Prediction Seattle 27 Detroit 20

My Bet: Over 43.5

My Week 15 NFL Picks

Saturday, Dec. 17 @5:25 PST: Miami Dolphins (8-5) at New York Jets (4-9)

The Dolphins currently find themselves seventh in the AFC, just one spot out of the playoffs due to a tiebreaker that the Denver Broncos currently hold due to strength of schedule.  Miami will be starting Matt Moore at quarterback who will be making his start in almost five years after Ryan Tannehill suffered a season ending injury last week at against Arizona.

Looking at some trends here:

The Jets are are 7-1-1 against in their last 9 games played in December.  The Dolphins are 1-12 against the spread in their last 13 games played in December.

Jets are 8-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 games against the AFC East. The Dolphins are 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games against the AFC East.

The Dolphins are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing home record, while the Jets are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as a home underdog.

My Pick New York Jets +3

 

Sunday, Dec. 18 @10 am PST: Cleveland Browns (0-13) at Buffalo Bills (6-7)

The Browns stink and are 2-11 against the spread.

My Pick: Part one of a two team teaser 7 points (Bills -3)

 

Sunday, Dec. 18 @1:25 pm PST: Oakland Raiders (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (5-8)

The Raiders are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine road games. The Raiders are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games overall.

The Chargers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games against the AFC West but only 3-10 against the spread  in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Raiders are 5-1 on the road this season.

My Picks: Raiders –3  (This would also be a great game to tease at +7 you can get the Raiders +4 and Bills -3)

 

Sunday, Dec. 18 @5:30 PST: Tampa Bay Bucs (8-5) at Dallas Cowboys (11-2)

The  Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a touchdown underdog to Dallas despite their current five game winning streak both straight up and against the spread. During the winning streak the Buccaneers have not allowed more than 21 points in any of these games. The Buccaneers are 5-1 straight up on the road this season.

Rumors of a quarterback controversy are beginning to loom in Dallas despite a 11-2 record with rookie Dak Prescott under center. After starting the season 9-1 against the spread, Dallas has now dropped their last three games against the Vegas line.

Looking at some trends here:

Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December and only are 3-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.

My Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 

AND Single game 6 point teaser(-110)  (Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13.0  and Under 53.0)