Heading into May 3rd, only five of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball have had more than half of their games go OVER the total in the 2022 season. With this low trend of OVERS, more than 57% of the games played so far have gone UNDER the total.
Here are the main reasons I believe we have seen so many UNDERS so far.
1) Humidors I’m not a physics expert, so if you are looking for an in-depth tutorial on how humidors work, I suggest doing additional research on Google after reading this article. What I can tell you is that all 30 teams have humidors in their home stadium this season, as opposed to 2021, when only nine teams used humidors. Although the effects of humidors will differ day-to-day, there have been speculations and research suggesting that humidors can make baseballs easier for pitchers to grip while also making it more difficult for a hard hit ball to travel as far in humid weather.
2) Roster Expansion The MLB rosters were expanded from 26 to 28 players this season. This change has helped most teams improve their pitching depth. Due to extra pitchers on the rosters, teams are less likely to go into a game with a worn-out and overworked bullpen. Managers also have more options when matching up against opposing hitters and less pressure to feel the need to stick with a starting pitcher who’s struggling.
3) The Lockout And Reduced Spring Training In 2021 Spring Training games started on February 28th, but due to the lockout in 2022, Spring Training games did not begin until March 17th. Although this maynot seem like a huge deal, I believe the decrease in preseason preparation has made it more difficult for alot of hitters to get going early in the season.
4) Oddsmakers And The Habits of Bettors Most fans enjoy offense, which means that betting on OVERS will be more fun to the average bettor than betting on the UNDERS. Although the humidors, roster expansion, and reduced Spring Training are all likely factors to the decrease in the offense- before the season started, it wasn’t as clear how significant those effects would be. Even still, it was in the best interest of the oddsmakers earlier to set the totals a little high, knowing that most bettors like to take the overs.
The Houston Astros will host the Los Angeles in the finale of a three-game series on Wednesday. The Astros won the series opener 8-3 on Monday. The second game of the series was not complete at the time of this preview.
Ohtani Time
The Los Angeles Angels have not finished with a winning record since 2015, and have not reached the playoffs since 2014. The Angels entered this season expected to break that trend, with a projected over/under win total set at 84.5, and with three-time MVP Mike Trout, and reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani currently both healthy another losing season would be unacceptable for this franchise.
The Angels lineup has mashed an MLB best 16 home runs, and are tied for second with nine stolen bases through their first 11 games. Ohtani leads the team with three home runs, two stolen bases, and also has seven RBI. Harde Walsh leads the team with eight RBI and is also one of four Los Angeles batters with four home runs.
Ohtani will get to help his own cause on Wednesday as he is scheduled to make his third start of the season. In 2021, Ohtani went 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. This season has started rough for Ohtani on the mound and is 0-2 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. In five career starts against Houston, Ohtani is 0-3 with a 5.56 ERA.
Astros win series opener but Altuve forced to leave game
After Monday’s home-opening win, the Astros have a half-game lead over the Athletics and Angels. Through the first 10 games, Houston has averaged 3.9 runs per game and allowed 3.5 runs per game. The Astros are fourth in MLB with 13 home runs, with nine different players who have gone deep this season.
Yordan Alvarez leads the team with three home runs and is second with six RBI. Alex Bregman leads the team with seven RBI and is tied with Kyle Tucker with two home runs. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena is off to a great start as he replaced Carlos Correa, who left for Minnesota in free agency. Pena leads the team with a .344 batting average and has added one home run and three RBI.
On Wednesday, the Astros will start Jake Odorizzi, who is 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in two starts this season. In 24 starts last season, Odorizzi was 6-7 with a 4.21 ERA. Odorizzi has made nine career starts against the Angels and is 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.
Prediction: Houston Astros ML +120
Rating: 4 out of 5
The Angels may be an attractive team to back with Ohtani on the mound, but Houston has not been kind to Ohtani as a pitcher. In four career starts at Minute Maid Park Ohtani is 0-2 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. The Angels bullpen has also struggled with a 4.88 ERA this season, which is the fifth-worst in MLB. Ordozzi has not been great this season either, but the Astros bullpen has been much better with a 3.11 team ERA. Houston has also controlled this rivalry recently with eight wins in the last 10 head-to-head meetings against Los Angeles.
Both of these lineups are lethal. The Angels are second in MLB hammering 1.47 home runs per game, and Houston is fourth with 1.21 home runs per game. Given the past track records and recent struggles of both starters, expect the Astros bats to jump on Ohtani early and for the Angels to also have success off of Odorizzi. In this rivalry, 14 of the last 19 head-to-head meetings at Minute Maid Park have gone over the total, and I expect to see a high-scoring game Wednesday.
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