Dec. 23 Dollar General Bowl: Toledo (11-2) vs. Appalachian St (8-4)

The Dollar General is a rematch of last season’s 2016 Camellia Bowl, where Appalachian State defeated Toledo 31-28.  Toledo came into last season’s match-up as a point favorite and the over and under was 59.5.

Both teams are very strong and experienced at the quarterback position. Appalachian State is led by fourth year starter Taylor Lamb at quarterback. Lamb threw for 119 yards and rushed for 126 yards last season against Toledo. In his career Lamb has scored a total of 113 touchdowns for Appalachian State and is the Sun Belt all-time record holder with 90 career touchdown passes.

Toledo senior quarterback Logan Woodside has thrown for 93 touchdowns and over 10,000 yards in his career. The Rockets will be the highest ranked offensive team that the Mountaineers have seen this season. Toledo averages 510 yards per game and 39.4 points.

Appalachian State ranked second in the Sun Belt conference with 215 rushing yards per game and first with 5.4 yards per carry. This could be a problem for the Rockets rushing defense.

Toledo is 1-4 against the spread in their last five non-conference games and the over is 6-2 in Rockets last eight non-conference games.  Appalachian State is  4-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record.

Last season I picked Toledo -1 and the under 59.5 point. The Toledo pick lost, but the under won but just a half point. In this 2017 match-up season Toledo is currently a 7.5 point favorite and the over/under total is 63 points.

Appalachian State ranked second in the Sun Belt conference with 215 rushing yards per game and first with 5.4 yards per carry. This could be a problem for the Rockets rushing defense.

I think the 7.5 point line, with the availability to buy a half point and get these to 8 points, is a bit high. I like Appalachian State to cover and the over.

 

Lines: Toledo -7.5

Get Sports Strong Predictions: Toledo 34 Appalachian State 31

Recommended Plays: Appalachian State +8 buying the hook if available and OVER 61 points

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Camellia Bowl – Toledo vs Appalachian State (December 17, 2016 Prediction)

Camellia Bowl – Toledo Rockets (9-3) vs Appalachian St. (9-3) Preview

 

The Camellia Bowl features the Sun Belt Champion Appalachian State Mountaineers and the Toledo Rockets. Appalachian State will be playing in their second consecutive Camellia Bowl. In last season’s game the Mountaineers defeated the Ohio Bobcats 31-29

The Mountaineers have been very solid defensively this season allowing only 17 points per game (seventh in nation) and 326 yards per game (15th in the nation). The Toledo Rockets come in ranked 9th in the nation in offensive yards per game. Both teams come in with rushers who have over 1,300 rushing yards on the season. Jalin Moore leads the Appalachian State rushing attack with 1,367 rushing yards, while Kareem Hunt leads Toledo with 1,355 rushing yards.
Toledo has had more success in the passing game this season lead by Logan Woodside who has thrown for 43 touchdowns this season against only 9 interceptions. Three year started Taylor Lamb has been solid for Appalachian State, coming in with 60 touchdown passes 25 interceptions in his career of 36 starts.

Against the spread Toledo is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against the Sun Belt Conference and 8-0-1 against the spread in their last 9 non-conference games overall. The Over is only 1-4-1 in the last six Toledo games.

Appalachian State is 6-6 against the spread this season, and the over is 5-7 in the Mountaineers games.

On the season Toledo and Appalachian State both defeated the Akron Zips, their only common opponent. The Mountaineers defeated the Zips 45-38 on the road on Sept. 24. Toledo won at Akron 48-17 on Nov. 2.

The Mountaineers defense will challenge the Rockets, but overall I think Toledo’s balance attack will be too much.

 

My prediction:  Toledo 30 Appalachian State 24 (Toledo -1)

Under 59.5

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