Saturday May 12 MLB Two Free Picks

A tough 0-3 yesterday makes this week interesting. This week we have had a five game losing streak, followed by a five game winning streak, followed by a current three game losing streak. Despite the 5-8 week so far in MLB, on the season our record is 45-38 up 11 Units.

I am making five picks today, with two free right here.

 Washington Nationals (-168.0) at
 Arizona Diamondbacks (+168.0) over +8.0

Game time: Saturday 5/12, 4:05 PM

Stephen Strasburg is 4-3 in 10 career starts against Arizona with a 3.59 earned run average. The OVER is 7-3 in Strasburg those starts against the Diamondbacks.

Strasburg is 0-1 against Arizona this season. He allowed five earned runs over 6 1/3 innings against the Diamondbacks on April 27.

Arizona will be starting Troy Scribner who had a 5.68 earned run average in five Pacific Coast League AAA starts this season.

MY PICK: OVER 8.0 RUNS TWO UNITS

 

 Seattle Mariners (-136.0) at
 Detroit Tigers (+136.0) over +9.0

Game time: Saturday 5/12, 4:10 PM GAME 1 of double header

While not great in his career, Tigers start Matthew Boyd has always been better at home and a better day time pitcher. This season Boyd is 1-1 with 1.47 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home.

Both the Tigers and Mariners have hit left handed pitching well this season. I give the edge to the Tigers in Game 1

MY PICK: Detroit Tigers moneyline (+133.0) TWO UNITS

 

 

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TUESDAY MAY 1 FREE PICK

Jake Arrieta and the Philadelphia Phillies really let us down yesterday. We felt very good about the seven unit play but the Marlins got the upset 8-4. Overall we went 2-2, but the other three picks were only two units each.

Now 27-20 on the MLB season, here is tonight’s free MLB pick.

Los Angeles Dodgers (12-16) at Arizona Diamondbacks (20-8) 9:40 pm EST

Projected Starters: Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.84 ERA) at  Matt Koch (1-0, 1.93)(4-1, 2.32 ERA) 

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 2-4 on the season when Clayton Kershaw has started this season. In those losses games the Dodgers were favored by -295 (San Francisco) , -155 (at Arizona), -140 (Washington) and -370 (Miami).

Kershaw will be facing the Diamondbacks for the third time already this season. Kershaw is 1-1 with a 2.08 earned run average on the season, including a 7-2 win and a 6-1 loss.

The Diamondbacks will be sending Matt Kock to the mound. Koch has only made four starts in his major league career and is 2-1 with a 2.81 earned run average and 0.88 WHIP of 0.54.

The fact that Kershaw is only 1-4 this season, despite pitching very well shows how much the Dodgers struggled in April. The Dodgers are 5-11 against the money line after a loss this season. The Dodgers are also only 1-6 against the Diamondbacks this season.

The Diamondbacks are playing as well as any team in the National League right now and with Kershaw pitching for the Dodgers, you can get even value, even if the Diamondbacks lose, as long as this keep this game with-in one run.

 

My Pick:  Arizona Diamondbacks (+1.5) +107.0  (Five Units)

 

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National League Wildcard Game Pick: Colorado at Arizona (Oct. 4, 2017)

Colorado Rockies (87-75) at Arizona Diamondbacks (93-69)  8pm EST

Rockies: Gray (10-4, 3.67) Diamondbacks: Greinke (17-7, 3.20)

Favorite: Arizona Diamondbacks -165

The Rockies and Diamondbacks will face each other tonight for the 20th time this season. The winner will move on to face the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the loser will see an impressive season come to an end.
Both teams are surprises to be in this position, in 2016 the Diamondbacks only won 69 games and the Rockies won 75.

 

The Diamondbacks will be sending Zack Greinke to the mound. Greinke is 13-1 with a 2.87 earned run average at home this season. Against the Rockies Greinke was 2-1 with a 3.41 earned run average in five starts.

Rockies starter Jon Gray is 5-3 with a 4.06 earned run average on the road this season. In three starts Gray is 2-1 with a 3.50 earned run average against Arizona this season, however, on the road at Arizona (Chase FIeld) Gray is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA.

Arizona holds the edge in the season series 11-8. Both teams split the ten games played in Arizona 5-5. While Arizona actually won six out of nine games in Colorado.

Why I can see Colorado winning: 
-The Rockies will be facing Greinke for the sixth time this season.

-Rockies starter Jon Gray is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA at Chase field this season.

-Gray has also dominated Diamondbacks slugger Paul Goldschmidt who is 0-11 lifetime against him.

-I don’t trust Diamondbacks closer Fernando Rodney who has two saves but also two blown saves against the Rockies this season.

Why I can see Arizona winning:

-Zack Greinke will be making his 10th career post season start against Jon Gray who will be making his first. Greinke has a 2-2 record and 2.38 ERA in his last four six post season starts. This is the time of the season where aces shine and but carry teams on their back.

-The Diamonbacks have the hottest player in baseball, J.D Martinez. Martinez is hitting .398 with 15 HRs and 31 RBI over his last 23 games.

With two teams so familiar with each other I can honestly see this game going either way. I like the Rockies value at +165 because I definitely think Colorado has better than a 38% chance of winning this game.

Straight up without any odds or if I was taking part in a pick ‘em I would take Arizona. But due to the value I do not like Arizona at -165. I think Arizona would be more worthy as a -130 favorite here.

If Greinke can not go the distant and if Colorado can keep this game with-in a run or two, I can see a dramatic comeback in the late innings. I am taking a chance based on value here.

My Pick: Colorado 5 Arizona 4 (Colorado Moneyline +165)

 

 

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Monday May 9 MLB Picks

Today kicks off our third week of the season with public MLB picks for you. Let’s have another positive week.

Last week May 2-7 record  14-10

Get Sports Strong  MLB Season Record 27-17

 

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox (A’s Moneyline +110)

Athletics (Gray 3-3, 4.84)  Red Sox (Buchholz 1-3, 5.71)

sonny-gray
Sonny Gray leads the A’s into Fenway Park Monday night.

Both starting pitchers have struggled this season, but Sonny Gray has had more positive moments than Clay Bucholz has.  Current Red Sox hitters have only a .128 BA average against Sonny Gray. A’s are 9-7 on the road, much better then their 5-11 home record. I like the Athletics as an underdog pick here.

Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros (Indians Moneyline – 125)

Indians (Kluber 2-3, 3.35) Astros (Fiers 2-1, 5.35)

Corey Kluber is 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA in his career against the Astros. After getting off to a slow start Kluber is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last three starts this season. The Astros have only won two consecutive games once this season. I like the Indians to win this game.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (Rockies Moneyline -150)

Diamondbacks (Bradley 0-0, 10.38)  Rockies (Chatwood 4-2, 2.15)

tyler-chatwood-mlb-philadelphia-phillies-colorado-rockies-4
Chatwood has already defeated the Diamondbacks twice this season.

This will be the seventh time these two teams have met already this season. The Rockies have won five of the first six match-ups. Tyler Chatwood is 2-0 against Arizona this season. In those two starts Chatwood has allowed one earned run over a total of 12 2/3 innings.  I am looking for Chatwood to improve to 3-0 against the Diamondbacks this season and picking the Rockies to win at home.

 

 

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