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Yesterday was our worst MLB day so far this season going 0-2. We are currently now 8-5 on the season, still up 5.8 units. Here is our play for Wednesday April 11.
Projected Starters: Tigers: Zimmerman (0-0, 8.71 ERA) at Indians: Carrasco (2-0, 5.40 ERA)
We took a chance on the Tigers last night as a +182 underdog against the Indians, and the Tigers fell 2-1. I really thought yesterday’s game was good value and the second best chance the Tigers would have at taking at least one game in this four game series. Stranger things have happened, but tonight’s match-up is not set up well for the Tigers.
The Indians are 11-1 in Carrasco’s last 12 starts against the Tigers. Last season in six starts against Detroit, Carrasco was 4-1 with a 1.82 earned run average. Carrasco’s one loss to Detroit came in a 4-1 game on April 16, 2017 where Tiger’s pitcher Matt Boyd out-dueled him.
Unlike Boyd, the Tiger’s projected stater Jordan Zimmerman has not been able to put together quality starts against Cleveland in his past. Zimmerman is 0-4 with an ERA of 10.88 in his career against the Tribe. Zimmerman’s first two starts this season have also left little reason for optimism. So far this year he has allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs over only 10 1/3 innings of work.
My biggest concern here working against the Indians is the fact that Cleveland has only scored a total of 14 runs, and no more than three runs total in any game, over their last seven games played overall. But Zimmerman may be just what the doctor ordered for the Tribe bats to get going.
Detroit has not been an offensive juggernaut themselves so far. The Tigers have already been shutout three times this season and limited to just one run in two other games.
My pick: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123) Two Units
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We spilt yesterday with no loss or gain in profit. This makes our MLB record 7-3 on the season and up 7.8 units so far. I feel that the line on today’s pick will change quickly so I want to give a very quick prediction.
Five of the last six Detroit Tigers games have gone under.
With the cold weather in Cleveland and the pitching match-up I like the under here.
My pick: Under (8.0 runs)
After the first two official days on the 2017 season, we are off to a bit of rough start. However, every team and every handicapper will likely run into at least an 1-4 stretch at some point this season. We went 1-2 yesterday, however I am not bragging about the win, which was a -304 moneyline play on the Dodgers. -304 is not the type of value I usually look for or make plays on, however yesterday it was too good to pass on. Here are the results so far this season:
Game 1- $500.00 Atlanta Braves moneyline (+178.0)
Result: LOSS Mets 6 Braves 0
Game 2- $500.00 Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline (-304.0)
Result: WIN Dodgers 14 Padres 3
Game 3- $500.00 Texas Rangers moneyline (+109.0)
Result: LOSS Indians 8 Rangers 5
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Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
(Indians: Carrasco) (Rangers: Perez) 8:05 pm EST
We took the Rangers yesterday, who blew a 5-1 to Cleveland lead and lost 8-5. Today as a +146 underdog we are taking the Rangers Moneyline again and OVER 9 runs.
Indians starter Carlos Carrasco is coming back from injury and posted a 10.80 ERA with his opponents hitting .397 BA against him this spring. I expect Carrasco to eventually get back into form from last season, but as a -146 favorite, I think he is a big risk tonight.
Rangers starter Martin Perez was 8-3 with a 3.24 ERA at home last season. But Perez did allow six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings at home to Cleveland last year.
Going with the +146 value for the Rangers and expecting a high scoring game.
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Game 3 –Indians: Tomlin (Regular Season 13-9, 4.40 ERA) (Postseason: 2-0, 2.53 ERA) AT Cubs: Hendricks (Regular Season: 16-8 , 2.13 ERA) (Postseason: 1-1, 1.65 ERA)
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Game 2 – Chicago Cubs: Arrieta (18-8 , 3.10 ERA) Indians: Bauer (12-8, 4.26)
The Indians improved their postseason record to 6-1 as underdogs last night, while the Under improved to 8-1 in Indians games.
Tonight the Indians will send Trevor Bauer to the mound looking to take a 2-0 series lead. Bauer’s impact in game two is a huge question mark after he could only throw 21 pitches on Oct. 17 before being forced to leave the game due to excessive bleeding from his finger. Six Indians relievers then came to pitch 8 1/3 inning combine while allowing only two runs, leading the Tribe to a 4-2 victory over Toronto.
The Cubs have dropped both of Jake Arrieta’s starts this post season along with Arrieta’s last three road starts overall. The Over is 12-2 in Arrieta’s last 14 road starts. Also the Cubs are just 4-9 in Arrieta’s last 13 starts against a team with a winning record.
No matter how much a match-up does not favor them on paper, it’s getting tough to bet against Cleveland, because they have heavily reward bettors with their underdog value as they continue to win. I have no idea what to expect out of Trevor Bauer tonight and Andrew Miller is most likely not going to be available out of the Cleveland bullpen.
The Cubs are currently -143 moneyline favorites. Personally I do not think that’s good value based on the way the Indians are playing at home and the recently inconsistencies from Arrieta on the road.
Bauer’s first postseason start was the Indians only game that went above the over/under line this postseason this season. I honestly can see anything going tonight.
My favorite play for this game is actually OVER 3.5 Runs at the 5 inning line.
Enjoy the game!
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Wednesday has a slate of day games that maybe beginning before you take your lunch break. We’ve been on a pretty good run lately and there are two early games where I believe the underdogs are worth the risk to pick up some extra units.
Remember, when betting on underdogs going only 50% can turn a huge profit. For example if you bet on a +115 underdog you will profit if you can pick at a 47% success rate. When betting on a +160 underdog you only need to hit 39% of the time.
Tigers (Fulmer 8-2, 2.17) Indians (Tomlin 9-1, 3.21)
The Indians dominance of the Tigers this season has been astonishing. The Tigers are still four games over .500 despite being 0-11 against Cleveland. Josh Tomlin will be making his fourth start of the season against Detroit, so far he is 3-0 with a 2.61 earned run average against the Tigers. Tomlin is also 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA in day games and Cleveland is 13-2 overall when he has started this season.
The Tigers will counter with rookie Michael Fulmer who is one of the biggest snubs off of the American League all-star team. The Tigers are 10-2 when Fulmer starts this season with one of those loses coming to Cleveland on May 5 in his second career start. Fullmer has allowed a total of three earned runs over his last eight starts, good for a 0.53 ERA over that span. For all you sabermetrics guys out their, Fullmer is also ranked third among all American League pitchers this season with 3.16 wins above replacement.
I came across an interesting stat that was quoted by ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Schoenfield stated, “ If we hypothesize that these teams are otherwise equal (Detroit’s winning percentage when not playing the Indians is over .600), the odds of one team winning 11 in a row over the other would be .00049 percent.”
I’m taking a chance here and going with the underdog Detroit Tigers +115 to finally break their losing streak to Cleveland.
The Indians have not allowed more than four runs as a team in Tomlin’s last six starts. The Tigers have allowed more than two runs as a team only once in Fulmer’s last seven starts. Even though both of these teams games go over more than 54% of the time, I am also leaning towards under 8.5 runs due to the pitching match-ups, although the bullpens could put this at risk late.
Reds (DeSclafani 2-0, 1.78) Cubs (Warren 3-1, 4.56)
The Cubs are 10-2 against the Reds and not one game has yet gone under; the overs are 10-0-2. The Reds snapped a five game losing streak to the Cubs yesterday with a 9-5 win as a +260 underdog. The Reds are never going to be favored over the Cubs, but I think today is a great time to take a chance on Cincinnati +160.
The Cubs are sending Adam Warren to the mound who despite his 3-1 record will be making his first career big league start. He did post a 4.15 ERA in two Triple-A starts this season over 8.2 innings.
Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his five starts this season.
Betting on the Reds is always a risk, but at +160, I feel that this is a risk worth taking.
Good luck today. I know that both the Tigers and Reds have struggled against their opponent this season, but I like both of their chances to break the trend today.
Red Sox (Price 7-1, 5.34) Blue Jays (Dickey 2-6, 4.60)
After a rough start to the season, David Price is now 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA over his past three starts. Price is also 8-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last 10 meetings against the Blue Jays. Since the start of last season, RA Dickey is 0-5 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts against Boston. I like the Red Sox here.
Orioles (Tillman 6-1, 2.61) Indians (Clevinger 0-1, 8.71)
Baltimore has lost five out of six games but I think things will begin turn around for the Orioles here. Chris Tillman has been the Orioles best starting pitcher this season.
Cleveland rookie Mike Clevinger has allowed 10 earned runs in his first two starts over 10 1/3 innings. I like the Orioles to win here.
White Sox (Sale 9-1, 2.26) Royals (Volquez 5-4, 3.67)
White Sox are beginning to struggle coming in as loser of five in a row. Saturday the Royals scored seven runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to defeat the Sox. Several Royals have very good career numbers against Sale.
I like the Royals here, but coming off of a bad start I do not doubt Chris Sale’s ability to get back on track and lead Chicago to victory. If Volquez can keep the Royals in the game before the bullpens take over then the advantage is in the Royals favor. I am picking the Royals to cover -1.5 here, meaning either Kansas City wins or loses by one run or less.
Cardinals (Wacha 2-5, 5.04) Strasburg (8-0, 2.79)
Michael Wacha has given up 14 earned runs in his last eight innings pitched and lost his last five decisions. I am picking the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg, who has a chance to improve to 9-0 on the season.
Tigers (Pelfrey 0-4, 5.55) A’s (Hill 7-3, 2.18)
The Tigers are 3-6 against left handed pitchers on the season. Rich Hill beat the Tigers on April 26, allowing no earned runs over seven innings. Hill gives the A’s the clear pitching advantage here. The Tigers offense has been hot, but Mike Pelfrey starting does not give Detroit the best chance. I like Oakland to win.
Padres (Pomeranz 4-4, 1.70) Diamondbacks (Bradley 1-0, 7.84)
Arizona is starting Archie Bradley who has just been called up from AAA. Over 10 career starts he has a 6.26 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. The advantage here is with Drew Pomeranz and the Padres.
Twins (Nolasco 1-3, 5.54) Mariners (Walker 2-4, 2.70)
The Twins have won three in a row, I trend that should be coming to an end soon. The Twins have lost the last five games that Nolasco has started.
Despite losing his last four decisions, Taijuan Walker has not allowed more then four earned runs in any starts this season. The Mariners are the better team with the better starting pitcher here. I like Seattle to win by more than a run.
Marlins (Koehler 2-5, 4.79) Braves (Teheran 1-4, 2.57)
On April 16 Tom Koehler gave up five earned runs in 3 2/3 inning to the Braves. Current Braves hitters are batting .370 against Koehler overall.
As bad as Atlanta has been this season, the Braves are 5-0 against the Marlins.Julio Teheran has allowed only one run or less in his last six starts. For his career Teheran is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 starts against the Marlins. I like Atlanta to complete the sweep.
Dodgers (Kershaw 7-1, 1.48) Mets (Colon 4-3, 3.44)
The Dodgers defeated the Mets 5-0 when Clayton Kershaw faced Bartolo Colon on May 17 in Los Angeles.
Kershaw is 7-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his ten career regular season starts against the Mets. I am expecting a Dodgers win.
Today kicks off our third week of the season with public MLB picks for you. Let’s have another positive week.
Last week May 2-7 record 14-10
Get Sports Strong MLB Season Record 27-17
Athletics (Gray 3-3, 4.84) Red Sox (Buchholz 1-3, 5.71)
Both starting pitchers have struggled this season, but Sonny Gray has had more positive moments than Clay Bucholz has. Current Red Sox hitters have only a .128 BA average against Sonny Gray. A’s are 9-7 on the road, much better then their 5-11 home record. I like the Athletics as an underdog pick here.
Indians (Kluber 2-3, 3.35) Astros (Fiers 2-1, 5.35)
Corey Kluber is 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA in his career against the Astros. After getting off to a slow start Kluber is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last three starts this season. The Astros have only won two consecutive games once this season. I like the Indians to win this game.
Diamondbacks (Bradley 0-0, 10.38) Rockies (Chatwood 4-2, 2.15)
This will be the seventh time these two teams have met already this season. The Rockies have won five of the first six match-ups. Tyler Chatwood is 2-0 against Arizona this season. In those two starts Chatwood has allowed one earned run over a total of 12 2/3 innings. I am looking for Chatwood to improve to 3-0 against the Diamondbacks this season and picking the Rockies to win at home.