We went 14-7 last week. Today we have one free pick and three more all access picks ready to go.
June 30 Results:
✅ Boston Red Sox Moneyline WIN
✅ LAA Angels Moneyline WIN
✅ Over 9.0 Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies LOSS
July 1 Results:
✅ Tampa Bay Rays +0.5 first 5 innings WIN
✅ Chicago Cubs -1.5 LOSS
Here is my free pick for Monday July 2.
If you like this pick and want to have full access to all my picks each day, all access packages are available.
Yesterday we did not make any MLB plays. Currently we are 5-2 on the season.
Here is your free play for tonight.
At this moment I am not sure that Atlanta starter Anibal Sanchez be trusted. For his career Sanchez is 4-0 when starting against Colorado with an ERA of 1.77, however Sanchez has not faced the Rockies since 2014 when he was a very different pitcher. Since 2015 Sanchez is 20-30 with a 5.63 earned run average.
Rockies projected starter, Chad Bettis has won five out of his last six home starts against teams with a winning record. Last season Bettis threw six shutout innings against the Braves at home in Colorado.
I like the Rockies here as home favorites after dropping the series opener.
My Pick: Colorado Rockies Money Line -133
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The Rockies and Diamondbacks will face each other tonight for the 20th time this season. The winner will move on to face the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the loser will see an impressive season come to an end.
Both teams are surprises to be in this position, in 2016 the Diamondbacks only won 69 games and the Rockies won 75.
The Diamondbacks will be sending Zack Greinke to the mound. Greinke is 13-1 with a 2.87 earned run average at home this season. Against the Rockies Greinke was 2-1 with a 3.41 earned run average in five starts.
Rockies starter Jon Gray is 5-3 with a 4.06 earned run average on the road this season. In three starts Gray is 2-1 with a 3.50 earned run average against Arizona this season, however, on the road at Arizona (Chase FIeld) Gray is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA.
Arizona holds the edge in the season series 11-8. Both teams split the ten games played in Arizona 5-5. While Arizona actually won six out of nine games in Colorado.
Why I can see Colorado winning:
-The Rockies will be facing Greinke for the sixth time this season.
-Rockies starter Jon Gray is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA at Chase field this season.
-Gray has also dominated Diamondbacks slugger Paul Goldschmidt who is 0-11 lifetime against him.
-I don’t trust Diamondbacks closer Fernando Rodney who has two saves but also two blown saves against the Rockies this season.
Why I can see Arizona winning:
-Zack Greinke will be making his 10th career post season start against Jon Gray who will be making his first. Greinke has a 2-2 record and 2.38 ERA in his last four six post season starts. This is the time of the season where aces shine and but carry teams on their back.
-The Diamonbacks have the hottest player in baseball, J.D Martinez. Martinez is hitting .398 with 15 HRs and 31 RBI over his last 23 games.
With two teams so familiar with each other I can honestly see this game going either way. I like the Rockies value at +165 because I definitely think Colorado has better than a 38% chance of winning this game.
Straight up without any odds or if I was taking part in a pick ‘em I would take Arizona. But due to the value I do not like Arizona at -165. I think Arizona would be more worthy as a -130 favorite here.
If Greinke can not go the distant and if Colorado can keep this game with-in a run or two, I can see a dramatic comeback in the late innings. I am taking a chance based on value here.
My Pick: Colorado 5 Arizona 4 (Colorado Moneyline +165)
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Atlanta Braves 52-64 (Newcomb 1-7, 4.45 ERA) at Colorado Rockies 66-52 (Freeland 11-7, 3.70 ERA) 8:40pm CST
The Colorado Rockies currently find themselves tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the two National League Wildcard spots, holding a five game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals. Tonight the Rockies host, the Atlanta Braves, who seem to be well on their way to their fourth consecutive losing season.
The Braves will be sending rookie south paw Sean Newcomb to the mound tonight. Based on Newcomb’s 1-7 record and 4.45 earned run average, a quick glance at the opening line may lead you to expect him to get shelled tonight by the Rockies line-up.
Coors Field is not just any ballpark, however Newcomb may be up for the challenge since he has pitched much better on the road this season. In his four starts away from SunTrust Park, the rookie is 1-1 with a 3.43 earned run average while holding opponents to .197 batting average, opposed to his 0-6 record and 5.02 earned run average at home.
Alot of other signs point to the under here, including seven of the Rockies last eight Tuesday home games going under the Vegas total. Seven of Sean Newcombs 11 career starts have gone under the total as well and the under is also 9-5-1 in Atlanta’s last 15 games.
The Rockies have a reputation for scoring a lot of runs but only 44% of the Rockies games have gone over this season (49-63-6). The Under is also 8-2 in the Rockies last ten games overall and 15-4-2 in Rockies starter Kyle Freeland’s starts this season.
Once again I see this as an excellent opportunity to take advantage of the inflated 11.5 over/under due to this game being played at Coors Field.
Regarding my prediction on the outcome, I like the Rockies to win against the Moneyline as well. The Braves have lost their last 11 games in Colorado and are 2-9 in their last 11 games as underdog.
The Rockies have won 21 of their last 29 home games with the total going under in seven of the Rockies last eight home games on Tuesday.
I strongly recommend two plays here: UNDER 11.5 RUNS and Rockies Moneyline
Get Strong Sports Prediction: Rockies 7 Braves 3
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Colorado Rockies (Eddie Butler 2-3, 5.65) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Julio Urias 0-1, 9.39)
The Colorado Rockies continue their three game series Tuesday night as a +174 underdog against promising Dodgers rookie pitcher Juilo Urias. Although Urias seems to have a promising career ahead of him with electric stuff, he is still only 19 years old.
The Rockies can hit, even away from Coors Field. Colorado is third in the National League with 38 home runs on the road this season. They are also tied for second with 21 home runs against left handed pitchers.
Rockies starter, Eddie Butler is coming off of two poor starts against the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants. Overall he is 2-3 with a 5.65 ERA. He has not pitched more than six innings in any of his six starts this season.
Julio Urias is unlikely to pitch more than five innings tonight, which means that both bullpens could have a decisive role in this game. If the result is decided by the bullpens, there is a strong advantage for the Dodgers, which is why they deserve to be favorites.
The key for the Rockies will be to get to Urias early and get a lead for Butler. Eddie Butler will need to protect the lead and then hope that the Rockies bullpen can hold on.
The Los Angeles Dodgers need to provide Julio Urias with run support. If Urias can get strikeouts and provide the Dodgers with at least four solid innings with some offense behind him, the Dodgers have the advantage.
Overall, I love this game to go over eight runs and feel very confident in this play. I do not see both starting pitches and bullpens pitching great tonight, so it is hard for me to see either team scoring anything less than three runs.
I love the eight run over most, but I also really like the value in the Rockies as a +174 money line underdog. Even if the Rockies lose, if we get the over/under there is nothing lost. I would stay away from the Dodgers as a -168 favorite. The better value is with Colorado.
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Today kicks off our third week of the season with public MLB picks for you. Let’s have another positive week.
Last week May 2-7 record 14-10
Get Sports Strong MLB Season Record 27-17
Athletics (Gray 3-3, 4.84) Red Sox (Buchholz 1-3, 5.71)
Both starting pitchers have struggled this season, but Sonny Gray has had more positive moments than Clay Bucholz has. Current Red Sox hitters have only a .128 BA average against Sonny Gray. A’s are 9-7 on the road, much better then their 5-11 home record. I like the Athletics as an underdog pick here.
Indians (Kluber 2-3, 3.35) Astros (Fiers 2-1, 5.35)
Corey Kluber is 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA in his career against the Astros. After getting off to a slow start Kluber is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last three starts this season. The Astros have only won two consecutive games once this season. I like the Indians to win this game.
Diamondbacks (Bradley 0-0, 10.38) Rockies (Chatwood 4-2, 2.15)
This will be the seventh time these two teams have met already this season. The Rockies have won five of the first six match-ups. Tyler Chatwood is 2-0 against Arizona this season. In those two starts Chatwood has allowed one earned run over a total of 12 2/3 innings. I am looking for Chatwood to improve to 3-0 against the Diamondbacks this season and picking the Rockies to win at home.
After winning our only MLB pick yesterday, here are four picks for today. We are picking two underdogs to win straight up
Tigers: Fulmer (1-0, 3.60 Indians: Bauer(0-0, 5.28)
The Detroit Tigers have had the Cleveland Indians number in recent years, that has not been the case this season. Cleveland is currently 5-0 on the season against the Tigers, a streak that I expect to end soon. Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer is 2-2 with a 6.94 ERA in seven career starts against Detroit. Bauer did pick up a win in relief against the Tigers on April 24, allowing two earned runs in 3 1/3 innings pitched.
Tigers prospect Michael Fulmer will get his second career start after winning his debut against Minnesota, allowing two runs in five innings.
The Tigers are 14-7 against every other team besides Cleveland this season, the Indians are 7-12 when they are not playing the Tigers. Despite the recent struggles in the rivalry, Detroit is an appealing underdog here.
With a Fulmer vs Bauer pitching match-up, I also like this game to go over 8.5 runs scored. Tigers have had 17 out of 26 games go over this season.
Mets: deGrom (3-0, 1.02 Padres: Rea 2-1, 4.61)
It is hard to predict what to expect from Padres rookie Colin Rea. Over his first five starts this season, he has been very good at times, but there have been shaky moments as well.
Jacob deGrom has only allowed two earned runs overall in his three starts this season, but also has not pitched more then six innings in any of his starts. The Mets however, are third in the National League in ERA (2.75), she the Mets are in good hands when deGrom comes out. The Padres bullpen ranks 14th in the National League with a 5.03 ERA. I like the Mets to win here.
Rockies: Rusin (1-0, 1.69) Giants: (Cain 0-3, 7.00)
Matt Cain is 17-9 in his career against Colorado, but is off to a poor start this season. The Rockies are 8-5 overall this season as an underdog on the road an 11-9 overall as underdogs.
With the Rockies dangerous lineup and Matt Cain’s early season struggles, I like the incentive take the Rockies as a moneyline underdog here.
Record for the week: 6-4
Get Sports Strong Season MLB record: 19-11
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