A tough 0-3 yesterday makes this week interesting. This week we have had a five game losing streak, followed by a five game winning streak, followed by a current three game losing streak. Despite the 5-8 week so far in MLB, on the season our record is 45-38 up 11 Units.
I am making five picks today, with two free right here.
Washington Nationals (-168.0) at
Arizona Diamondbacks (+168.0) over +8.0
Game time: Saturday 5/12, 4:05 PM
Stephen Strasburg is 4-3 in 10 career starts against Arizona with a 3.59 earned run average. The OVER is 7-3 in Strasburg those starts against the Diamondbacks.
Strasburg is 0-1 against Arizona this season. He allowed five earned runs over 6 1/3 innings against the Diamondbacks on April 27.
Arizona will be starting Troy Scribner who had a 5.68 earned run average in five Pacific Coast League AAA starts this season.
MY PICK: OVER 8.0 RUNS TWO UNITS
Seattle Mariners (-136.0) at
Detroit Tigers (+136.0) over +9.0
Game time: Saturday 5/12, 4:10 PM GAME 1 of double header
While not great in his career, Tigers start Matthew Boyd has always been better at home and a better day time pitcher. This season Boyd is 1-1 with 1.47 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home.
Both the Tigers and Mariners have hit left handed pitching well this season. I give the edge to the Tigers in Game 1
MY PICK: Detroit Tigers moneyline (+133.0) TWO UNITS
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Yesterday we had an awful beat. We saw value in the Twins +186 and Minnesota lost to the New York Yankees 14-1.
This drops our record to 23-12 on the season in Major League baseball, still up 20.76 units on the season.
Here is our play for Tuesday April 24.
Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates 7:05pm EST
Projected Starters: Tigers: Zimmerman (1-0, 7.71 ERA) at Pirates: Kuhl (2-1, 4.57 ERA)
The OVER is 3-1 in Zimmerman’s four starts this season. The one UNDER came in a game against Cleveland where Zimmerman had to leave the game in the first inning after being hit in the face by a line drive.
One the season Zimmerman is 1-0 but has a 7.71 earned run average. He allowed four runs and six hits over six innings against Pittsburgh on opening day in a game that ended 13-10.
Pirates projected starter Chad Kuhl comes in with a 2-1 record and 4.57 earned run average. The OVER is 4-0 when he pitches this season. Kuhl allowed eight hits and four earned runs against Detroit on April 1 this season in a 8-6 Pirates victory.
The Pittsburgh bullpen has a 5.23 ERA this season and the Detroit bullpen has a 4.42 ERA this season
My pick: OVER 8.5 Runs Four Units
Yesterday was our worst MLB day so far this season going 0-2. We are currently now 8-5 on the season, still up 5.8 units. Here is our play for Wednesday April 11.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians 6:10pm EST
Projected Starters: Tigers: Zimmerman (0-0, 8.71 ERA) at Indians: Carrasco (2-0, 5.40 ERA)
We took a chance on the Tigers last night as a +182 underdog against the Indians, and the Tigers fell 2-1. I really thought yesterday’s game was good value and the second best chance the Tigers would have at taking at least one game in this four game series. Stranger things have happened, but tonight’s match-up is not set up well for the Tigers.
The Indians are 11-1 in Carrasco’s last 12 starts against the Tigers. Last season in six starts against Detroit, Carrasco was 4-1 with a 1.82 earned run average. Carrasco’s one loss to Detroit came in a 4-1 game on April 16, 2017 where Tiger’s pitcher Matt Boyd out-dueled him.
Unlike Boyd, the Tiger’s projected stater Jordan Zimmerman has not been able to put together quality starts against Cleveland in his past. Zimmerman is 0-4 with an ERA of 10.88 in his career against the Tribe. Zimmerman’s first two starts this season have also left little reason for optimism. So far this year he has allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs over only 10 1/3 innings of work.
My biggest concern here working against the Indians is the fact that Cleveland has only scored a total of 14 runs, and no more than three runs total in any game, over their last seven games played overall. But Zimmerman may be just what the doctor ordered for the Tribe bats to get going.
Detroit has not been an offensive juggernaut themselves so far. The Tigers have already been shutout three times this season and limited to just one run in two other games.
My pick: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123) Two Units
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We spilt yesterday with no loss or gain in profit. This makes our MLB record 7-3 on the season and up 7.8 units so far. I feel that the line on today’s pick will change quickly so I want to give a very quick prediction.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians 6:10pm EST
Five of the last six Detroit Tigers games have gone under.
With the cold weather in Cleveland and the pitching match-up I like the under here.
My pick: Under (8.0 runs)
- Recapping Picks from April 16 (2-1)
Colorado Rockies 4 at San Francisco Giants 3 (WIN +123)
The Giants continued to punish bettors have taken them this season, while the Rockies continue to reward as underdogs.
Washington Nationals 6 Philadelphia Phillies 4 (LOSS UNDER 8)
It looked good when the game went into the 8th inning with the Nats leading 3-1. It wasn’t until Bryce Harper’s two out three-run homerun in the bottom of the 9th that sunk our ship.
Chicago White Sox 3 Minnesota Twins 1 (WON UNDER 9)
The 9 runs which jumped up to 9.5 runs before game time was way too high for anyone paying attention to these teams so far.
April 18 Quick Picks:Embed from Getty Images
Detroit Tigers (+114.0) at Tampa Bay Rays (-114.0) @ 7:10 PM EST
The Tigers are 5-2 against the Rays in the last seven games at Tampa.
Miguel Cabrera is questionable, but I still like the Tigers Moneyline here.
Milwaukee Brewers (+161.0) at Chicago Cubs (-161.0) @8:05 PM EST
The Chicago Cubs are struggling and have dropped five out of their last six games overall and have been favored in every game this season.
The Brewers Brewers have won six out of last seven games overall and in five out of those six wins they were the underdog.
Both starting pitchers are off to good starts but Cubs started Brett Anderson is still a huge question mark to take the Cubs with -161 juice and Cubs bullpen is 1-4 with a 4.10 ERA so far.
I am taking the Brewers Moneyline.
Miami Marlins (-102.0) at Seattle Mariners (+102.0) @ 10:10 PM
Marlins starter Yovani Gallardo is 5-1 with a 1.90 ERA in eight starts against the Marlins in his career.
The Marlins are only 6-20 in last 26 road interleague games on the road.
The Mariners have won eight of its last 11 interleague games at home.
Take the Seattle Mariners Moneyline.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Tigers (Sanchez 7-13, 5.92) Royals (Duffy 11-2, 3.01) 8:15pm EST
The Detroit Tigers will be looking for redemption after being swept at home by the Kansas Royals the last time these teams met. The Tigers have gone 9-4 since August 17 when the Royals completed the sweep.
This series is huge for both teams. The Tigers find themselves 4.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central and currently tied for the last wildcard spit. The Kansas City Royals are three games behind the Tigers.
Tonight the starting pitching match-up favors Kansas City. Royals starter Danny Duffy is coming of a loss to the Boston Red Sox in his last start, but prior to that defeat the Royals had won 11 consecutive games that Duffy started.
Duffy is 2-0 against Detroit this season with a 4.71 ERA over three starts and five appearances.
Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez is having his worse season since he became a consistent starter in the major leagues. However, Sanchez’s best start of the season came against the Royals on August 17 when he allowed only one hit and no runs over seven innings while striking out eight batters. That remarkable start for Sanchez still resulted in a 4-1 Tigers loss.
Sanchez has shown signs of turning the page lately, allowing three runs or less in four of his last six starts. The Tigers however are only 2-8 in the last ten starts that Sanchez has made. Sanchez is 3-7 with a 7.65 ERA average in road games this season and 4-7 with a 6.24 ERA in night games.
Danny Duffy is 6-0 with a 3.16 ERA at home. Overall the Royals are 18-6 in their last 24 games despite coming in on a two game losing streak. The Royals have also won five of their last seven home games against the Tigers.
Both of these team know each other well and are good ball clubs. The Tigers can hope that Sanchez can bring the same magic on the road that he channeled the last time that the Royals faced him at Comerica Park.
At -145 the Royals Moneyline is the smart play here.
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Five wins in a row, let’s make it six!
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Twins (Berrios 2-3, 9.28) Tigers (Norris 1-2, 3.81) 1:10 pm EST
After winning the first two games of the series the Tigers have now improve to 9-2 against the Twins on the season. More importantly the Tigers have picked up two games on the Cleveland Indians and currently trail them by 5.5 games.
The Twins are playing for pride and experience at this point of the season and come in looking to snap a six game losing streak. Jose Berrios is a promising young pitcher, but he has heavily struggled this season. On May 16, Berrios allowed seven earned runs over two-third innings against Detroit. On the season opponents are hitting .328 against him and .423 at home. The opposing teams have score five runs or more in seven of the eight starts that Berrios has made this season.
The Tigers will be starting Daniel Norris who has a 2.93 ERA over his last three starts. Although Norris has pitched solid he has not yet gone past 5 1/3 inning in any of his starts and has not picked up a victory since June 29. Detroit is 2-4 overall in games that Norris has started this season.
Once again the value is very good for the Tigers as a favorite. At the moment Norris has been pitching better than Berrios, the Tigers are playing better than the Twins and the Tigers are the better team. On some boards the Twins are actually favorites at the moment. I am taking the Detroit Tigers money line -111 to sweep. I am also making a play on the Tigers over 4.5 runs (-135).
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
(White Sox: Shields 5-12, 4.68) Tigers (Sanchez 5-11, 6.56) 7:10 EST
The Detroit Tigers are currently the hottest team in baseball coming off of two surprising sweeps over the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros. The Tigers are 6-4 against the White Sox this season and are looking to continue to climb in the American League Central. The Tigers are currently comfortable favorites everywhere, with some book markers showing them as the -160 favorite. As much as I still love the Tigers in the Central, I recommend staying away from them tonight at those odds.
Detroit starter Anibal Sanchez is 2-5 when starting against the White Sox with 5.47 ERA in his career. Sanchez went 0-3 and posted a 8.41 ERA in the month of July and the Tigers have dropped the last 11 games that he has started. Current White Sox hitters also have killed Sanchez in his career, coming in with a career .369 batting average and 9-1-1 (.911 OPS) against Sanchez in a healthy sample size of 157 at bats.
On the other side, Chicago starter James Shields has seemed to turn things around. Despite a 2-3 July record, Shields posted a 1.78 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive starts. This includes a 2-1 loss to the Tigers on July 21.
The Tigers are on fire and a sexy team for bettors to ride right now, but at +140, the value is on the side of Chicago. I am betting against Anibal Sanchez and taking my chance with the White Sox +140 money line as my ”Dog of the Day.”