Tuesday July 26 Free Picks

Detroit Tigers (Pelfrey 3-9, 4.78 ) at Boston Red Sox (Wright 12-5, 2.67)

detroit-tigers-vs-new-york-yankees---april-9-2016-3f67404d299e6253
Yesterday, we started the week with a 3-2 start. Today leading the way is a repeat of one of our successful plays from last night by playing the over/under on the Tigers and Red Sox.

Both the Tigers and Red Sox have been strong plays on the over this season. Boston ranks fifth in all of MLB in percentage of games going over, while the Detroit Tigers rank ninth. The recent trends however have told a different story, the Over is 2-12-1 in Detroit’s last 15 games and also only 6-9 in Boston’s last 15.

Expectations for Tiger’s starter Mike Pelfrey tend to be pretty low each time he steps on the mound, but Pelfrey has had a solid July posting a 3.72 ERA over four starts.

Steven Wright had two of his lesser starts in July, but overall has been very good this season. In his last outing Wright allowed only one earned run, while striking out nine batters over eight innings against the Minnesota Twins. Overall, Wright has allowed more than three earned runs in only three of his 13 starts this season.

At -190 I am not betting on the Red Sox, even though I am leaning on them winning this game. The alternative line of under 12.5 can also get you -195 value at the moment.

My play here is the UNDER 11 runs (-110). Last night I felt the over of 10 was too high and played the over, the total ended up at six. For the second night in a row, I believe that the Over is too high.

 

Other Picks for Today
✅ Over 8.5 Cincinnati Reds San Francisco Giants EVEN
✅ Houston Astros ML Over New York Yankees (-140)
✅ Baltimore Orioles ML Over Colorado Rockies (-185)

 

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July 6- Reds at Cubs and Tigers at Indians

Wednesday has a slate of day games that maybe beginning before you take your lunch break. We’ve been on a pretty good run lately and there are two early games where I believe the underdogs are worth the risk to pick up some extra units.

Remember, when betting on underdogs going only 50% can turn a huge profit. For example if you bet on a +115 underdog you will profit if you can pick at a 47% success rate. When betting on a +160 underdog you only need to hit 39% of the time.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (12:10 pm est)

Tigers (Fulmer 8-2, 2.17) Indians (Tomlin 9-1, 3.21)

 

The Indians dominance of the Tigers this season has been astonishing. The Tigers are still four games over .500 despite being 0-11 against Cleveland. Josh Tomlin will be making his fourth start of the season against Detroit, so far he is 3-0 with a 2.61 earned run average against the Tigers. Tomlin is also 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA in day games and Cleveland is 13-2 overall when he has started this season.

The Tigers will counter with rookie Michael Fulmer who is one of the biggest snubs off of the American League all-star team. The Tigers are 10-2 when Fulmer starts this season with one of those loses coming to Cleveland on May 5 in his second career start. Fullmer has allowed a total of three earned runs over his last eight starts, good for a 0.53 ERA over that span. For all you sabermetrics guys out their, Fullmer is also ranked third among all American League pitchers this season with 3.16 wins above replacement.

I came across an interesting stat that was quoted by ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Schoenfield stated, “ If we hypothesize that these teams are otherwise equal (Detroit’s winning percentage when not playing the Indians is over .600), the odds of one team winning 11 in a row over the other would be .00049 percent.”

I’m taking a chance here and going with the underdog Detroit Tigers +115 to finally break their losing streak to Cleveland.

The Indians have not allowed more than four runs as a team in Tomlin’s last six starts. The Tigers have allowed more than two runs as a team only once in Fulmer’s last seven starts. Even though both of these teams games go over more than 54% of the time, I am also leaning towards under 8.5 runs due to the pitching match-ups, although the bullpens could put this at risk late.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (2:20 pm est)

Reds (DeSclafani 2-0, 1.78) Cubs (Warren 3-1, 4.56)

The Cubs are 10-2 against the Reds and not one game has yet gone under; the overs are 10-0-2. The Reds snapped a five game losing streak to the Cubs yesterday with a 9-5 win as a +260 underdog. The Reds are never going to be favored over the Cubs, but I think today is a great time to take a chance on Cincinnati +160.

The Cubs are sending Adam Warren to the mound who despite his 3-1 record will be making his first career big league start. He did post a 4.15 ERA in two Triple-A starts this season over 8.2 innings.

Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his five starts this season.
Betting on the Reds is always a risk, but at +160, I feel that this is a risk worth taking.

Good luck today. I know that both the Tigers and Reds have struggled against their opponent this season, but I like both of their chances to break the trend today.

 

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves- July 1 Prediction

Marlins (Nicolino 2-4, 5.17 ERA) Braves (Teheran 3-7, 2.46 ERA)

Julio Teheran has had tough luck at home this season. The 25 year old right hander is winless in nine starts at Turner Field his season where he is an 0-4 record despite a 2.80 earned run average. Teheran will come in carrying a 23 consecutive scoreless inning streak. Teheran has 1.72 earned run average in his last 13 starts.

Marlins starter Justin Nicolino had a 6.89 ERA in three June starts, but he has had past success against the Braves. Nicotine is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA all time against the Braves.

Obviously the Braves offense has been a huge problem this year, which is why Teheran has a 3-7 record. The Braves production against left handed pitching this season also is a cause for doubt. However, I like the value here and I’m taking Atlanta -113. I think Teheran will be lights out once again and the Braves will provide enough run support to pull this one out.

 

My other free play for tonight: Detroit Tigers Money line -115 over Tampa Bay

Wednesday June 8 MLB Day Game Preview

Early weekday games can sneak up on you before you have time to truly evaluate your best options. There’s a full slate of baseball later tonight along with a huge NBA finals game. However there’s equal opportunity to improve your bank roll this afternoon. Here is a preview of today’s early games in Major League Baseball, and my thoughts if you want to get your bets in early.

 

Cubs at Phillies

The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies will play in the rubber match of their series at 1:05 EST. The Cubs are favored as always, but at -180 money line odds. Phillies starter Vince Velasquez (5-2 , 3.67 ERA) has not pitched beyond five innings in his last four starts. This includes his May 29 start at Wrigley Field where he allowed nine hits and seven earned runs over 4 2/3 innings.

John Lackey (6-2 , 2.88 ERA) is 2-1 with a 4.55 ERA on the road this season due to two rough starts in April, but he is 3-0 with 1.57 ERA in day games this season.

If you decide to bet the Cubs you will have to lay down plenty of juice, but there are not enough reasons to confidently bet on the Phillies. My recommendation is to take Chicago.

Blue Jays at Tigers

The Detroit Tigers will look for their second consecutive series sweep when they host the Toronto Blue Jays. With Jordan Zimmerman on the mound, I like the Tigers chances.

Jordan Zimmerman has allowed more than three earned runs only once this season in 10 starts. The Tigers overall are playing their best baseball of the season and the offense will be a challenge for RA Dickey. Dickey is 4-1 against the Tigers since 2013 with a 4.15 ERA and Tigers hitter have a mixed history against him.

Right now the Tigers are finding ways to win and I like them as a -125 moneyline favorite.

Braves at Padres

I expect a good pitchers duel between two bad teams when the Atlanta Braves take on the San Diego Padres. The fact that Juilo Teheran is only 1-6 despite having a 2.92 ERA and 1.05 WHIP tells the story of how pathetic his run support has been this season. The Braves have managed to score more than three runs only once in the 12 starts made by Teheran this season.

With the Padres sending left handed pitcher Drew Pomeranz (5-5, 2.22 ERA) to the mound, don’t expect for Teheran’s run support to improve. Pomeranz has fallen on some hard luck as well, finding himself on the losing end of two 1-0 games this season, along with winning a 1-0 and 2-0 game. Pomeranz has a 3-1 and 0.73 ERA at home this season. At even money I would lean towards the Padres to win this game, but San Diego is a -150 favorite. So you have to ask if yourself if you really want to lay down -150 on the San Diego Padres against a pitcher as good as Teheran? Playing for under 7 runs is my recommendation here.

Rays at Diamondbacks

Overall this is a pretty even match-up on paper.
Jake Odorizzi (2-3, 3.33 ERA) has been pitching well for the Rays over his last four starts allowing no more than two runs in any of those starts. Archie Bradley (2-1, 4.94 ERA) is coming off of a very strong start against the Chicago Cubs where he only allowed one earned run over six innings with 10 strikeouts. The 8.5 over/under is also right where it should be. Nothing would surprise me in this game, and it is hard to trust the Diamondbacks at home where they are only 10-21 despite winning last night.
Personally among the four early games, this would be my least favorite to bet on.

 

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Sunday May 29 (Nine MLB Picks against Vegas)

Here are my nine plays for Sunday May 29

 

1. Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays  (Red Sox -1.5, +120)

Red Sox (Price 7-1, 5.34)  Blue Jays (Dickey 2-6, 4.60)

After a rough start to the season, David Price is now 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA over his past three starts. Price is also 8-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last 10 meetings against the Blue Jays. Since the start of last season,  RA Dickey is 0-5 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts against Boston. I like the Red Sox here.

2. Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians (Orioles Moneyline -125)

Orioles (Tillman 6-1, 2.61)  Indians (Clevinger 0-1, 8.71)

Baltimore has lost five out of six games but I think things will begin turn around for the Orioles here.  Chris Tillman has been the Orioles best starting pitcher this season.

Cleveland rookie Mike Clevinger has allowed 10 earned runs in his first two starts over 10 1/3 innings. I like the Orioles to win here.

3. Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals (Royals +1.5, -125)

White Sox (Sale 9-1, 2.26) Royals (Volquez 5-4, 3.67)

White Sox are beginning to struggle coming in as loser of five in a row. Saturday the Royals scored seven runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to defeat the Sox.  Several Royals have very good career numbers against Sale.

I like the Royals here, but coming off of a bad start I do not doubt Chris Sale’s ability to get back on track and lead Chicago to victory. If Volquez can keep the Royals in the game before the bullpens take over then the advantage is in the Royals favor. I am picking the Royals to cover -1.5 here, meaning either Kansas City wins or loses by one run or less.

4. St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals (Nationals -1.5, +125)

Cardinals (Wacha 2-5, 5.04)  Strasburg (8-0, 2.79)

Michael Wacha has given up 14 earned runs in his last eight innings pitched and lost his last five decisions.  I am picking the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg, who has a chance to improve to 9-0 on the season.

5. Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics (Athletics Moneyline-165)

Tigers (Pelfrey 0-4, 5.55)  A’s (Hill 7-3, 2.18)

The Tigers are 3-6 against left handed pitchers on the season. Rich Hill beat the Tigers on April 26, allowing no earned runs over seven innings. Hill gives the A’s the clear pitching advantage here. The Tigers offense has been hot, but Mike Pelfrey starting does not give Detroit the best chance. I like Oakland to win.

6. San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Padres Moneyline -120)

Padres (Pomeranz 4-4, 1.70) Diamondbacks (Bradley 1-0, 7.84)

Arizona is starting Archie Bradley who has just been called up from AAA. Over 10 career starts he has a 6.26 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. The advantage here is with Drew Pomeranz and the Padres.

7. Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners (Mariners -1.5, +120)

Twins (Nolasco 1-3, 5.54)  Mariners (Walker 2-4, 2.70)

The Twins have won three in a row, I trend that should be coming to an end soon.  The Twins have lost the last five games that Nolasco has started.

Despite losing his last four decisions, Taijuan Walker has not allowed more then four earned runs in any starts this season. The Mariners are the better team with the better starting pitcher here. I like Seattle to win by more than a run.

8. Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (Braves Moneyline -130)

Marlins (Koehler 2-5, 4.79) Braves (Teheran 1-4, 2.57)

On April 16 Tom Koehler gave up five earned runs in 3 2/3 inning to the Braves. Current Braves hitters are batting .370 against Koehler overall.

As bad as Atlanta has been this season, the Braves are 5-0 against the Marlins.Julio Teheran has allowed only one run or less in his last six starts.  For his career Teheran is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 starts against the Marlins.  I like Atlanta to complete the sweep.

9. Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets (Dodgers Moneyline -210)

Dodgers (Kershaw 7-1, 1.48) Mets (Colon 4-3, 3.44)

The Dodgers defeated the Mets 5-0 when Clayton Kershaw faced Bartolo Colon on May 17 in Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 7-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his ten career regular season starts against the Mets. I am expecting a Dodgers win.

 

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Wednesday May 11 MLB Picks

Six MLB picks for Wednesday May 11

 

Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers (Under 9 runs -115)

White Sox: (Latos 5-0, 2.62 Rangers Hamels 4-0, 2.68)

The 9 run over/under is on the high end seeing how well both of these starters have pitched. Unders are 18-13-3 in White Sox games this season. I expect a pitchers duel under 9 runs.

 

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox (Red Sox -1.5, Even)

Athletics (Surkamp 0-2, 5.59)  Red Sox (Porcello 5-1, 2.95)

The Red Sox have scored a total of 27 runs in the first two series games against the Athletics. Oakland has also lost eight of their last nine games. The A’s are expected to lose, so the odds on picking the Red Sox are only -185.  I am taking the Red Sox -1.5 with the odds allowing us an even profit.

 

Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals 

*Two Picks (Over 7 Runs -110 and Tigers Moneyline +140)

Tigers (Zimmerman 5-1, 1.10)  Nationals (Scherzer 3-2, 4.60)

Two aces face their former teams in an expected pitchers duel.  The over is 22-10 this season when the Tigers play.  The Tigers are averaging 6.4 runs against National League teams this season, and the Tigers have faced some very good pitching during interleague play. Schrezer is second in MLB with nine home runs allowed. I like the chances of over seven runs being scored in this game.

It will be interesting to see how both pitchers match-up against their former teams. In the first two match-ups of the series the Tigers had a starting pitching disadvantage, and both of those games ended 5-4, with each team winning a game.  The Tigers are good value here at +140 to win.

 

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels 

*Two Picks (Over 7.5 Runs-120 and Cardinals Moneyline -132)

St. Louis: Garcia (2-2, 3.05)  Angles (Shoemaker 1-4, 9.15)

Shoemaker has been recalled from AAA to make a start since the Angeles have four starters on the disabled list. Garcia was very sharp in his start allowing only two hits and no runs in seven innings against the Phillies.  With Shoemaker pitching, I like the chances of this game going over 7.5 runs, I also like the Cardinals to win.

 

 

May 10 Record 2-1

Get Sports Strong  MLB Season Record 29-21

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Tuesday May 10 MLB Picks

You have to own the bad days along with the good days. May 9 was not a good day in baseball for us, dropping all three picks.  The season is a sprint not a marathon and we are still running today.  Here are three MLB picks for Tuesday to get back on track. 

May 9 Record 0-3

Get Sports Strong  MLB Season Record 27-20

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox (Over 9.5 Runs -120)

Athletics (Manaea 0-0, 7.20)  Red Sox (O’ Sullivan 0-0. 9.00)

Not a stellar pitching match-up. Sean O’Sullivan comes in with a 5.96 career ERA over 52 career starts.  A’s prospect Sean Manaea has allowed four runs in both of his first two career starts this season. After combining for 21 runs yesterday, I see these two teams going over 9.5 runs.

 

Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals (Nationals -1.5 Runs, +130)

Tigers (Fulmer 1-1, 6.30)  Nationals (Ross 3-1, 1.23)

Throughout the Tigers current seven game losing steak, you keep getting the feeling that the Tigers are too good to let this continue, but the bleeding has not stopped. Six of the seven losses during Detroit’s current losing steak have been by four runs or more.  The Tigers will send out rookie starter Micheal Fulmer who has given up 17 hits and 7 earned runs in 10 innings pitched so far.  Joe Ross has not allowed more than two runs in any start this season, and in the start were he allowed two earned runs he was facing the Cubs. I am picking Washington to win by more then one run.  With +130 odds this is a good opportunity to pick up some positive juice.

 

Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants (Blue Jays Moneyline -123)

Blue Jays (Happ 4-0, 2.50)  Giants (Cain 0-4, 7.84)

JA Happ

The recent trend of these two starting pitchers heavily favors Toronto.  Blue Jays starter, J.A Happ has made eight consecutive quality starts going back to last season.  Giants starter, Matt Cain has only had one quality start this season in six attempts. Cain’s last start resulted in a 17-7 loss to the Colorado Rockies. I like the Blue Jays to pick up the road victory.

 

 

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Thursday May 5 MLB Picks

After winning our only MLB pick yesterday, here are four picks for today. We are picking two underdogs to win straight up

Thursday May 5 Picks

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians

Two picks: Tigers Moneyline+115 and Over 8.5 Runs -115

Tigers: Fulmer (1-0, 3.60  Indians: Bauer(0-0, 5.28)

The Detroit Tigers have had the Cleveland Indians number in recent years, that has not been the case this season. Cleveland is currently 5-0 on the season against the Tigers, a streak that I expect to end soon. Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer is 2-2 with a 6.94 ERA in seven career starts against Detroit. Bauer did pick up a win in relief against the Tigers on April 24, allowing two earned runs in 3 1/3 innings pitched.

Tigers prospect Michael Fulmer will get his second career start after winning his debut against Minnesota, allowing two runs in five innings.

The Tigers are 14-7 against every other team besides Cleveland this season,  the Indians are 7-12 when they are not playing the Tigers.  Despite the recent struggles in the rivalry, Detroit is an appealing underdog here.

With a Fulmer vs Bauer pitching match-up, I also like this game to go over 8.5 runs scored.  Tigers have had 17 out of 26 games go over this season.

 

New York Mets at San Diego Padres  (Mets  Moneyline -178)

Mets:  deGrom (3-0, 1.02  Padres: Rea 2-1, 4.61)

It is hard to predict what to expect from Padres rookie Colin Rea. Over his first five starts this season, he has been very good at times, but there have been shaky moments as well.

Jacob deGrom has only allowed two earned runs overall in his three starts this season, but also has not pitched more then six innings in any of his starts. The Mets however, are third in the National League in ERA (2.75), she the Mets are in good hands when deGrom comes out. The Padres bullpen ranks 14th in the National League with a 5.03 ERA.  I like the Mets to win here.

 

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (Rockies Moneyline +125

Rockies: Rusin  (1-0, 1.69)  Giants: (Cain 0-3, 7.00)

Matt Cain is 17-9 in his career against Colorado, but is off to a poor start this season. The Rockies are 8-5 overall this season as an underdog on the road an 11-9 overall as underdogs.

With the Rockies dangerous lineup and Matt Cain’s early season struggles, I like the incentive take the Rockies as a moneyline underdog here.

 

Record for the week:  6-4 

Get Sports Strong Season MLB record: 19-11

 

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