Western Conference Finals Game 5 Pick Against the Vegas Line

The play in the Western and Eastern Conference Finals has been inconsistent from game to game which has led to us taking a conservative approach. We do however have a pick for tonight.
Check out my video to find out where my money is today!

 

Check out my pick and make sure to bet responsibly!

 

 

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Saturday Feb. 24 NBA Free Plays

Here are my personal picks for tonight’s NBA Action.

 Oklahoma City Thunder (+10.0) at
 Golden State Warriors (-10.0) over +233.0

Game time: Saturday 2/24, 8:35 PM

I am going with Oklahoma City a double digit dog again.
The Thunder have won their first two match-ups against the Warriors this season by 17 and 20 points respectively, despite being the underdog going into both games.

Revenge should be on the Warriors mind, but the Thunder have room for error and reason to feel disrespected here as ten point underdog.

My Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder (+10.0)

 

Portland Trail Blazers (-7.0) at
 Phoenix Suns (+7.0) over +221.0

Game time: Saturday 2/24, 9:05 PM

The Phoenix Suns are only 1-7 against the spread as an underdog against a team who is coming off of a straight up underdog win.

The Trailer Blazers defeated the Utah Jazz 100-81 last night despite being a +4 point underdog.  The Blazers are also 12-5-2 against the spread in their last 19 games playing on no days of rest.

My pick: Portland Trail Blazers (-7.0) 

 

 Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5) at
 Sacramento Kings (+1.5) over +221.5

Game time: Saturday 2/24,10:05 PM

The Lakers are 0-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread this season when they play a team that has a  .400 winning percentage or worse on no days rest.

The Kings are  7-1 against the spread in their last 8 when their opponent scores at least  in their previous game. The Kings are 9-4 in their last 13 games against the spread overall.

My pick: Sacramento Kings Moneyline (+114.0)

 

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2017 NBA Finals Game 2 Pick

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+368 is a big number. That’s how big of a moneyline underdog Vegas has the defending World Champion Cleveland Cavaliers going into Game 2 of the NBA Finals. For those new to sports gambling and unfamiliar with reading lines, +368 means that a $100 bet will win you a $368 profit on the Cavaliers. On the other side of things, a $100 moneyline bet on the Golden State Warriors will net a profit of only $27.17.

After a dominating 22 point victory by the Warriors in Game 1, it’s easy to overreact and believe that the Cavaliers have no chance in Game 2. Cleveland looked unmotivated and unprepared in the opening match-up and did a poor job of protecting the basketball with 20 turnovers for the game compared to just four turnovers by the Warriors.

In Lebron’s career coming into this series, Lebron has won three of the seven NBA Finals that he has participated in. In the three seasons that Lebron James’ teams won the NBA championship in (Miami 2, Cleveland 1), his teams have lost seven games overall between the 2012 (one loss), 2013 (3 losses) and 2016 NBA finals (3 losses). Six of those seven loses were by double digits. Lebron James’ team also lost Game 1 in all three of those championship seasons.

If we look at just Lebron’s six straight finals appearance prior to this series (2011-2016), five out of six of those series were tied at 1-1 after Game 2 with the exception of last season when Cleveland fell behind 2-0, losing both games by a combined total of 48 points ,before coming back to win the series in seven games.

That takes me to my prediction. In the last 11 games overall between the Warriors and Cavs, the Warriors hold a 6-5 edge against the Moneyline. But the moneymen winner is 11-0 against the spread in those games. That means the last 11 times that Golden State and Cleveland have faced each other the outright winner also covered the spread. So if you like the Warriors, take the Warriors as 8.5 point favorites to cover, but stay away from the Warriors moneyline at -368, it’s just not good value. But if you like Cleveland why settle for the -110 odds at +8.5 points? Go for the +368 Moneyline! Obviously Cleveland is are a big underdog, but if you win only 22% of the bets you make betting on a +368 underdog, guess what you will turn a profit!

There’s no guarantee here, and remember, there’s always a chance you can lose either way. But if you want the best value, and best chance to turn a large profit, the best play here is to go with King James and the defending World Champion Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline +368. Do you believe the King deserves better than a a 22% chance?

 

 

 

Get Sports Strong 2017 NBA Finals Record 21-8 (+4848 Units)

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Western Conference Finals Prediction

The Western Conference Finals is here. With so many people already penciling in Warriors-Cavaliers III, there seems to be no point in even playing this series if you listen to many experts.

I believe the Spurs deserve more respect then they are getting and I do not expect the Warriors to just walk into the NBA finals.

160108205255-kawhi-leonard-stephen-curry-san-antonio-spurs-v-golden-state-warriors---game-six.1200x672When you are looking at this series from a gamblers point of view, if you decide to play this series, my advice is to go with the Spurs.  You may think I am crazy, but if you are playing against Vegas you are playing by their odds.

The Spurs were +700 underdogs at one point meaning that a $100 bet on the Spurs would win you $700. Currently before tip off the Warriors are -900 favorites, meaning that a $100 bet on the Warriors would only win you $11.  So if you are betting $100 and have it to lose, what is the better investment, $100 to win $700 on San Antonio or risking $100 to win only $11 on Golden State?

I have made a play on the Spurs +700 to win the series.  However, with all money equal my prediction would be Warriors in 7. But in Vegas the odds are not equal, so I am taking the Spurs to shock the world.

 

Game One Pick: Spurs +10.5

NBA Playoffs (Free Pick May 6, 2017)

We are 14-4 so far in the NBA Playoffs.  Below are the full results up to this point and my pick for tonight.

Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz Game 3- May 6, 2017

GSSInstead of a straight up pick I am teasing the game tonight. Utah is currently a seven point underdog at home in a must win situation. Despite winning the first two games of the series in Oakland, the Warriors failed to cover the spread.  I am teasing this game by 4 points on the OVER and the Jazz.

My pick:

Teasing +4 points Utah Jazz +11 and OVER 204 (+100)

 

NBA 05/05/2017 07:05 (735) Cleveland
(736) Toronto
Cleveland (735) Cleveland 115
94
Win -1.5 (-110)
NBA 05/03/2017 09:45 (733) Houston
(734) San Antonio
Houston (734) San Antonio 96
121
Loss +6 (-110)
NBA 05/02/2017 08:00 (501) Washington
(502) Boston
Washington (502) Boston 119
129
Loss +5 (-100)
NBA 05/02/2017 10:45 (503) Utah
(504) Golden State
Under (504) Golden State 94
106
Win 208.5 un -110
NBA 04/24/2017 07:10 (517) Milwaukee
(518) Toronto
Milwaukee (518) Toronto 93
118
Loss +6 (-113)
NBA 04/23/2017 01:00 (509) Cleveland
(510) Indiana
Cleveland (509) Cleveland 106
102
Win -165
NBA 04/23/2017 03:35 (511) Houston
(512) Oklahoma City
Houston (511) Houston 113
109
Win +1.5 (-110)
NBA 04/23/2017 06:40 (513) Boston
(514) Chicago
Boston (513) Boston 104
95
Win -120
NBA 04/23/2017 09:15 (515) LA Clippers
(516) Utah
Utah (516) Utah 98
105
Win -160
NBA 04/21/2017 07:10 (715) Boston
(716) Chicago
Boston (715) Boston 104
87
Win -2 (-110)
NBA 04/21/2017 09:40 (717) Houston
(718) Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City (718) Oklahoma City 113
115
Win -140
NBA 04/21/2017 10:10 (719) LA Clippers
(720) Utah
Utah (719) LA Clippers 111
106
Loss -101
NBA 04/20/2017 07:10 (709) Cleveland
(710) Indiana
Cleveland (709) Cleveland 119
114
Win -130
NBA 04/20/2017 07:10 (709) Cleveland
(710) Indiana
Cleveland (709) Cleveland 119
114
Win -2 (-112)
NBA 04/20/2017 08:10 (711) Toronto
(712) Milwaukee
Milwaukee (712) Milwaukee 77
104
Win -1.5 (-105)
NBA 04/18/2017 07:10 (525) Milwaukee
(526) Toronto
Milwaukee (526) Toronto 100
106
Win +7.5 (-102)
NBA 04/18/2017 10:45 (529) Utah
(530) LA Clippers
Utah (530) LA Clippers 91
99
Win +9 (-108)
NBA 04/16/2017 03:35 (511) Portland
(512) Golden State
Portland (512) Golden State 109
121
Win +14.5 (-105)

 

 

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