June 6 Free Major League Baseball Pick

We went 3-2 in MLB on Tuesday. Today we are taking it slow with one pick.

Here is my free pick for June 6

Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates 7:05 PM EST

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TUESDAY MAY 1 FREE PICK

Jake Arrieta and the Philadelphia Phillies really let us down yesterday. We felt very good about the seven unit play but the Marlins got the upset 8-4. Overall we went 2-2, but the other three picks were only two units each.

Now 27-20 on the MLB season, here is tonight’s free MLB pick.

Los Angeles Dodgers (12-16) at Arizona Diamondbacks (20-8) 9:40 pm EST

Projected Starters: Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.84 ERA) at  Matt Koch (1-0, 1.93)(4-1, 2.32 ERA) 

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 2-4 on the season when Clayton Kershaw has started this season. In those losses games the Dodgers were favored by -295 (San Francisco) , -155 (at Arizona), -140 (Washington) and -370 (Miami).

Kershaw will be facing the Diamondbacks for the third time already this season. Kershaw is 1-1 with a 2.08 earned run average on the season, including a 7-2 win and a 6-1 loss.

The Diamondbacks will be sending Matt Kock to the mound. Koch has only made four starts in his major league career and is 2-1 with a 2.81 earned run average and 0.88 WHIP of 0.54.

The fact that Kershaw is only 1-4 this season, despite pitching very well shows how much the Dodgers struggled in April. The Dodgers are 5-11 against the money line after a loss this season. The Dodgers are also only 1-6 against the Diamondbacks this season.

The Diamondbacks are playing as well as any team in the National League right now and with Kershaw pitching for the Dodgers, you can get even value, even if the Diamondbacks lose, as long as this keep this game with-in one run.

 

My Pick:  Arizona Diamondbacks (+1.5) +107.0  (Five Units)

 

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APRIL 8 MLB FREE PICKS

The Rockies picked up the 3-2 win over the Braves in the 10th inning last night, giving us a 6-2 record on the season and up 7.8 units so far. For the second time this season, we have a two pick MLB day

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies  1:35pm EST

Projected Starters: Marlins: Trevor Richards at Phillies: Jake Arrieta
Jake Arrieta will be making his debut with the Phillies. In his career Arrieta is 3-0 when starting against the Marlins with an earned run average of 1.38.  This Marlins lineup appears to be even weaker than what Arrieta has faced against Miami in the past. Through the first eight games of this season, the Marlins hitters are tied for last in all of MLB with only two total homeruns hit as a team.

Marlins rookie right-hander Trevor Richards will be making his second career start.
Richards allowed five runs on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings against Boston in his debut.

The Marlins are currently on a four game losing streak where they have been outscored 36-6. All six of the Marlins losses this season have been by more than one run. The Phillies are big favorites here, rather than laying the juice we are playing the run line for much better value.

My pick: Phillies (-1.5) 

Los Angeles Dodgers  at San Francisco Giants  4:05pm EST

Projected Starters: Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw at Giants: Ty Blach 

This is the same pick we won with on opening day this season when Ty Blach outdueled Kershaw on the way to a 1-0 Giants victory.

In his career Kershaw is 22-10 when starting against San Fransico with an ERA of 1.58. The under is 24-7-2 in the last 33 starts that Kershaw has made against the Giants.

Ty Blach seems to love pitching aginst the Dodgers; he is 3-2 when starting against them with an ERA of 1.41.  The under is also 5-0 in Ty Blach’s career starts against the Dodgers.

My pick: Under (+7.0) 

Good luck and play ball!

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MLB Picks April 6

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Apr 5, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario (20) congratulates third baseman Miguel Sano (22) after scoring in the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

I am going to be as transparent as possible. Wednesday was another losing day at 1-2. The win came with the Braves pulling out a 3-1 12th inning victory over the Mets.  We had the Braves at +1.5, too bad we punked out and didn’t go Braves Moneyline at +194.

The over 7.5 for the Yankees-Rays game was looking really good when the Rays took a 4-1 lead in the 2nd inning.  Unfortunately there were no more runs scored beyond the second inning, and the Yankees went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position.

The beginning of this season has been very frustrating, however even if we were currently on a winning streak, the baseball season and sports handicapping is a marathon, not a sprint.

2017 MLB Season Results:

April 2, 2017: 0-2  (MLB Pot -$1,000)

April 3, 2017: 1-2 (MLB Pot -$835.53)

April 4, 2017: 2-2  (MLB Pot -$152.53)

April 5, 2017: 1-2  (MLB Pot -$519.23)

April 5 Recap:  Game 1- $500.00  Marlins at Nationals UNDER 9 runs

Result: LOSS Nationals 6 Marlins 4

Game 2- $500.00  Yankees at Rays OVER 7.5 runs

Result: LOSS Rays 4 Yankees 1
Game 3- $500.00 Mets +1.5 Runs  (-104)
Result: WIN Braves 3 Mets 1
Total season record (4-8 MLB Pot “-$2,507.29”)

With so many early games today, below I have all of my MLB Picks listed with a very brief explanation.

MLB Picks for April 6, 2017

Kansas City Royals (MONEYLINE +108) at Minnesota Twins
(Royals: Hammel)   (Twins: Gibson) 1:10 pm EST
The Twins have won the first two games of the series and now come into the final game of this three game series as favorites. The Twins are  26-52 against American League Central opponents over the last 2 season.  I am going with two picks here, the underdog Royals (+108)  to get the win and the total of OVER 8 runs.
San Diego Padres (MONEYLINE +205) at Los Angeles Dodgers
(Padres: Weaver)   (Dodgers: McCarthy) 3:10 pm EST
With odds of +205, you can make a profit but winning only 33% of your bets.  Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy has only made a total of 13 starts and 63 innings pitched the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are +220 favorites, but the Padres have played them tough recently. These teams have split the last 22 games against each other with 11 wins a piece. Give me the Padres +205 MONEYLINE.
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Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers Preview June 7

Colorado Rockies (Eddie Butler 2-3, 5.65) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Julio Urias 0-1, 9.39)

 

The Colorado Rockies continue their three game series Tuesday night as a +174 underdog against promising Dodgers rookie pitcher Juilo Urias.  Although Urias seems to have a promising career ahead of him with electric stuff, he is still only 19 years old.

The Rockies can hit, even away from Coors Field.  Colorado is third in the National League with 38 home runs on the road this season. They are also tied for second with 21 home runs against left handed pitchers.

Rockies starter, Eddie Butler is coming off of two poor starts against the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants. Overall he is 2-3 with a 5.65 ERA. He has not pitched more than six innings in any of his six starts this season.

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Julio Urias is unlikely to pitch more than five innings tonight, which means that both bullpens could have a decisive role in this game. If the result is decided by the bullpens, there is a strong advantage for the Dodgers, which is why they deserve to be favorites.

The key for the Rockies will be to get to Urias early and get a lead for Butler.  Eddie Butler will need to protect the lead and then hope that the Rockies bullpen can hold on.

The Los Angeles Dodgers need to provide Julio Urias with run support.  If Urias can get strikeouts and provide the Dodgers with at least four solid innings with some offense behind him, the Dodgers have the advantage.

Overall, I love this game to go over eight runs and feel very confident in this play. I do not see both starting pitches and bullpens pitching great tonight, so it is hard for me to see either team scoring anything less than three runs.

I love the eight run over most, but I also really like the value in the Rockies as a +174 money line underdog.  Even if the Rockies lose, if we get the over/under there is nothing lost.  I would stay away from the Dodgers as a -168 favorite. The better value is with Colorado.

 

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