Northern Illinois Huskies at Bowling Green Falcons (Free Pick)

 Saturday Oct. 21 2 pm EST

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The over/under started at 49 points and has now jumped to 55.5 on some sportsbooks.

The under is 5-1 in Northern Illinois games this season. The average NIU game this season has gone under by an average of more than eight points below the total, and this is even if you include the one game that went over, a 34-28 loss at San Diego State which went 16 points over the Vegas total line.

The UNDER is 2-0 in both of NIU conference games this season with the total ending at 27 points in both games.

The UNDER is 4-2-1 in Bowling Green games this season, however the two overs did come in the last two weeks, both in conference games.

Northern Illinois ranks #1 in the MAC in scoring defense allowing only. 16.7 points per game. Northern Illinois also ranks #1 in the conference in total defense and rushing defense.

Bowling Green ranks dead last (12th) in the conference in total defense and scoring defense (36.3 points per game). However offensively the Falcons only average 21 points a game (10th in MAC).

Get Sports Strong Pick: UNDER 55 points

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Toledo at BYU (Friday Sept. 30) and MAC Rankings

Conference play begins for 10 Mid-American Conference teams this weekend. After four weeks of play here is how I currently rank the teams in the MAC

  1. Western Michigan 4-0 @ Central Michigan Oct.
  2. Toledo 3-0 @ BYU Sept. 30
  3. Central Michigan 3-1 vs Western Michigan Oct. 1
  4. Ball State 3-1 vs Northern Illinois Oct. 1
  5. Ohio 2-2 @ Miami (Ohio) Oct. 1
  6. Akron 2-2 @ Kent Oct. 1
  7. Eastern Michigan 3-1 @ Bowling Green Oct. 1
  8. Buffalo 1-2 @ Boston College Oct. 1
  9. Miami (Ohio) 0-4 vs Ohio Oct. 1
  10. Bowling Green 1-3 vs. Eastern Michigan Oct. 1
  11. Kent State 1-3 vs Akron Oct. 1
  12. Northern Illinois 0-4 at Ball State Oct. 1

 

Toledo at BYU (Friday Sept. 30)

The 1-3 Cougars have had all of their first four games decided by three points or less

As we take a look at technically week 4 of the college football season, but week 3 for most teams, lets do a quick recap of last weeks games. BYU’s first four opponents have a combined record of 14-4.

The 3-0 Rockets will be facing their biggest test thus far in the season. Toledo has cruised so far winning its first three games by a combined total of 98 points but their opponents have a combined record of 1-10.

Toledo is currently a four point underdog. The Rockets are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games as a road underdog of between 3.5 to 10 points. Toledo is also 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight non-conference games against the spread. Overall Toledo has won five straight games against the spread as a home underdog.

Brigham Young is 6-0 against the spread in their last six home games but only 3-8 in their last 11 games against the spread when favored between 3.5 to 10 points.

Something has to give here, Toledo is 3-0 against the spread this season and despite a 1-3 record overall, BYU is a perfect 4-0 against the spread so far this season.

The Under is 18-3 in BYU’s last 21 Friday games. The Under is 14-3 in Toledo’s last 17 games as a road underdog.

I predicted this score without looking at the Spread or over/under. I see Toledo covering +4 and this game going Under 52 by the slimmest of margins. Although this is my lean, it is too close for comfort.

Prediction BYU 27 Toledo 24

 

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