MLB FREE PICKS- TUESDAY APRIL 17

Monday was a tough day in MLB but a great day in the NBA!

We went 2-0 in our NBA picks with the Warriors -9.5 and the OVER 215.5 in the 76ers-Heat game.  However in baseball we were 0-2.

We took a chance with the underdog Texas Rangers who lost 8-4. Then in what looked to be a win, we saw the New York Mets head into the 8th inning with a 6-1 lead, only to allow six runs in that inning on their way to an 8-6 loss to the Washington Nationals. This drops our record to 11-10 on the season in Major League Baseball.

The show goes on today.  Due to some postponed games and late lines, there is a good chance that we will be playing at least one more game later today.

Miami Marlins at New York Yankees 6:35pm EST

Projected Starters: Marlin Garcia (0-0, 1.13) at Yankees:  Tanka (2-1, 5.19 ERA

50/50 would I pick the Marlins? No. But with these odds do I think they have a better chance then the value indicates? Absolutely.

Jarlin Garcia comes in with a 1.13 ERA average on this season. This includes pitching six innings of no hit baseball against the Mets and six innings of one hit ball against the Cubs.

Make sure to list Jarlin Garcia as the starting pitcher for the Marlins when making this pick. There is positive value here even if the Marlins lose by a run.

My Picks (2 parts): 

Part 1: Miami Marlins moneyline (+267.0) One Unit

Part 2: Miami Marlins +1,5 (+133) One Unit

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs 7:05 pm EST

Projected Starters: Cardinals: Wainwright (0-0, 5.06  at Cubs:  Chatwood (0-2, 4.91 ERA)

Cubs projected started Tyler Chatwood is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in four career games against the Cardinals.

Adam Wainwright is 10-2 with 3.79 career ERA at Wrigley Field. Value is on the Cardinals

My Pick: St. Louis Cardinals moneyline (+119.0) Two Units

 

***Currently we are still looking at several other games and this could turn into a 4 or possibly 5 pick day.  The rest of the picks will be available before game time to our subscribers.

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APRIL 14 FREE MLB PICK

Friday the 13th lived up to the name. After consistently making no more than two plays a day, we made three picks yesterday and went 1-2. This drops our record to 10-8 on the season up 1.44 units.  We are scaling back to just one pick for tonight for three units.

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins 7:10 pm EST

Projected Starters: Pirates: Taillon (2-0, 1.26) at Marlins: Richard (0-1, 8.64 ERA)

More juice then we have laid yet this season, , but I don’t expect the Pirates to lose again to the Marlins with Jameson Taillon on the mound.

 

My Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline (-152) Three Units 

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APRIL 8 MLB FREE PICKS

The Rockies picked up the 3-2 win over the Braves in the 10th inning last night, giving us a 6-2 record on the season and up 7.8 units so far. For the second time this season, we have a two pick MLB day

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies  1:35pm EST

Projected Starters: Marlins: Trevor Richards at Phillies: Jake Arrieta
Jake Arrieta will be making his debut with the Phillies. In his career Arrieta is 3-0 when starting against the Marlins with an earned run average of 1.38.  This Marlins lineup appears to be even weaker than what Arrieta has faced against Miami in the past. Through the first eight games of this season, the Marlins hitters are tied for last in all of MLB with only two total homeruns hit as a team.

Marlins rookie right-hander Trevor Richards will be making his second career start.
Richards allowed five runs on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings against Boston in his debut.

The Marlins are currently on a four game losing streak where they have been outscored 36-6. All six of the Marlins losses this season have been by more than one run. The Phillies are big favorites here, rather than laying the juice we are playing the run line for much better value.

My pick: Phillies (-1.5) 

Los Angeles Dodgers  at San Francisco Giants  4:05pm EST

Projected Starters: Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw at Giants: Ty Blach 

This is the same pick we won with on opening day this season when Ty Blach outdueled Kershaw on the way to a 1-0 Giants victory.

In his career Kershaw is 22-10 when starting against San Fransico with an ERA of 1.58. The under is 24-7-2 in the last 33 starts that Kershaw has made against the Giants.

Ty Blach seems to love pitching aginst the Dodgers; he is 3-2 when starting against them with an ERA of 1.41.  The under is also 5-0 in Ty Blach’s career starts against the Dodgers.

My pick: Under (+7.0) 

Good luck and play ball!

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April 18 MLB Picks

    Recapping Picks from April 16 (2-1)

Colorado Rockies 4 at San Francisco Giants 3  (WIN +123)

The Giants continued to punish bettors have taken them this season, while the Rockies continue to reward as underdogs.

Washington Nationals 6 Philadelphia Phillies 4  (LOSS UNDER 8)

It looked good when the game went into the 8th inning with the Nats leading 3-1. It wasn’t until Bryce Harper’s two out three-run homerun in the bottom of the 9th that sunk our ship.

Chicago White Sox 3 Minnesota Twins 1  (WON UNDER 9)

The 9 runs which jumped up to 9.5 runs before game time was way too high for anyone paying attention to these teams so far.

April 18 Quick Picks:

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Detroit Tigers (+114.0) at Tampa Bay Rays (-114.0)  @ 7:10 PM EST 

 We like the Tigers here with underdog value. Detroit is 3-1 as an underdog this season and starter Micheal Fulmer only allowed one run over 14 total innings against the Rays last season with 21 strikeouts

The Tigers are 5-2 against the Rays in the last seven games at Tampa.

Miguel Cabrera is questionable, but I still like the Tigers Moneyline here.

Milwaukee Brewers (+161.0) at Chicago Cubs (-161.0) @8:05 PM EST

The Chicago Cubs are struggling and have dropped five out of their last six games overall and have been favored in every game this season.

The Brewers Brewers have won six out of last seven games overall and in five out of those six wins they were the underdog.

Both starting pitchers are off to good starts but Cubs started Brett Anderson is still a huge question mark to take the Cubs with -161 juice and Cubs bullpen is 1-4 with a 4.10 ERA so far.

I am taking the Brewers Moneyline.

Miami Marlins (-102.0) at Seattle Mariners (+102.0) @ 10:10 PM

Marlins starter Yovani Gallardo is 5-1 with a 1.90 ERA in eight starts against the Marlins in his career.

The Marlins are only 6-20 in last 26 road interleague games on the road.

The Mariners have won  eight of its last 11 interleague games at home.

Take the Seattle Mariners Moneyline.

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MLB Free Pick: Miami at Washington April 5

Day three of the season ended with a 2-2 finish, after a double loss in our free pick Indians-Rangers game, we bounced back with wins by the San Francisco Giants and a comeback win by the Los Angeles Angels.

April 2, 2017: 0-2  (MLB Pot -$1,000)

April 3, 2017: 1-2 (MLB Pot -$835.53)

April 4, 2017: 2-2  (MLB Pot -$152.53)

Game 1- $500.00  Texas Rangers ML +146 and OVER 9
Result: 2X LOSS  Indians 4 Rangers 3
Game 2- $500.00  Giants ML -146
Result: WIN  Giants 8 Diamondbacks 4
Game 3- $500.00 LAA Angels moneyline (+101.0)
Result: WIN Angels 7 A’s 6
Total season record (3-6 MLB Pot “-$1,988.06”)
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Free pick for April 5, 2017

Miami Marlins at Washing Nationals
(Marlins: Straily)  (Nationals: Roark) 7:05 pm EST
Where is the love for Tanner Roark? Coming off of a 16-10 record with a 2.83 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2016,  I grabbed Roark for $7 in my fantasy auction draft and he feel to the 9th and 13th round in my snake leagues. Anyway, Roark posted no worse than a 3.56 earned run average in any month of the 2016 season. Yes, Roark was just 2-4 against the Marlins last season, however he went 2-1 in his last three starts against them posting a 1.40 earned run average over 19 1/3 innings in those starts.
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Miami starter Dan Straily was quietly solid last season as well. Straily was not spectacular but only allowed over three earned runs pnly once in his final 17 starts last season. Washington hitters Bruce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Jayson Werth are also a combined 0 for 19 in their careers against Straily. Most lines right now are showing the over/under at 8.5 with 83% of the betting public taking the over. I definitely like the under here even at 8.5, however I was able to find the under at 9 runs (-110), and that is the recommended play
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Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves- July 1 Prediction

Marlins (Nicolino 2-4, 5.17 ERA) Braves (Teheran 3-7, 2.46 ERA)

Julio Teheran has had tough luck at home this season. The 25 year old right hander is winless in nine starts at Turner Field his season where he is an 0-4 record despite a 2.80 earned run average. Teheran will come in carrying a 23 consecutive scoreless inning streak. Teheran has 1.72 earned run average in his last 13 starts.

Marlins starter Justin Nicolino had a 6.89 ERA in three June starts, but he has had past success against the Braves. Nicotine is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA all time against the Braves.

Obviously the Braves offense has been a huge problem this year, which is why Teheran has a 3-7 record. The Braves production against left handed pitching this season also is a cause for doubt. However, I like the value here and I’m taking Atlanta -113. I think Teheran will be lights out once again and the Braves will provide enough run support to pull this one out.

 

My other free play for tonight: Detroit Tigers Money line -115 over Tampa Bay