After making five straight appearances in the ALCS, which includes winning a World Series in 2017, Carlos Correa decided to leave the franchise that drafted him back in 2012 for the Minnesota Twins this off-season. After reports stating that Correa had turned down a five-year $160 million deal with the Houston Astros, I was surprised to hear that the two-time All-Star decided to sign with the Twinsfor (only) three years and 105.3 million. With Scott Boras representing him, I believe this has alot to do with the option to opt out after only one season and then test the free-agent market again next season.
The Houston Astros have been great at rebuilding and likely wanted to plan for the future. I’m sure the Astros would have loved to have had Correa back on the five-year deal, but going through this again with Correa next season as a free agent is not something the Astros had an interest in. Nevertheless, as a fan of the game, seeing Correa sign with the Twins was disappointing to me, but dueto the terms of his contract, a reunion between Correa and the Stros in 2023 is not impossible.
On Friday April 20th we picked the Houston Astros 1.5 against the Chicago White Sox. Houston beat the White Sox 10-0. Yes, the -160 was more juice then we usually recommend laying in Major League Baseball, but my confidence in that play so high that I still went with it, and it worked out well.
That Houston Astros win gave us a 10 game winning streak and 22-10 record on the season in MLB up 23.76 units. This means already $23,760 in profit for a $1,000 a unit player, $2,376 on the season for an $100 a unit player, or $237 in profit for a ten dollar a unit player, based on my unit recommendations.
I am personally playing today’s free pick for four units. This means at -110 odds, a $1,000 unit bettor would lay $4,400, a $100 unit bettor would lay $440, a $10 a unit bettor would lay $44 and a $1 a unit bettor would lay $4.40.
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays 6:10pm EST
Projected Starters: Twins Gibson (1-0, 3.68 ERA) vs Tampa Bay: Snell (2-1, 2.95 ERA)
I think this total should be set at 8.5 but not 7.5.
While Minnesota project starter Kyle Gibson has pitched well this season, he is 1-4 against Tampa Bay in his career with a 7.05 ERA. The OVER is 5-1 in Gibson’s six career starts against Tampa Bay.
Blake Snell has made two career starts against the Twins. The OVER is 2-0 in those games and Snell has a career 6.75 ERA.
The OVER is 12-7 in Tampa Bay Rays games this season.
The MLB postseason kicks off tonight, when baseball’s most famous team, the New York Yankees, face the team with biggest turnaround for a post season run in major league history, the Minnesota Twins.
After finishing the 2016 season with a 59-103 record, the Twins have become the first team in major league baseball history to make the playoffs following a 100 loss season the year before.
The Yankees won the season series over the Twins 4-2. The Yankees swept the September three game series in New York, and in July the Twins took two out of three games from the Yankees in Minnesota.
Twins scheduled starter Ervin Santana allowed two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings at Yankee stadium on Sept. 18 in a 2-1 loss. Santana will be making his third career post season start, and his ninth career post season appearance, but his first since 2009. Santana is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA in six career starts at Yankee Stadium.
Yankees scheduled starter Luis Severino allowed three earned runs in only three innings against the Twins on Sept. 20 in New York.
The Yankees are huge favorites here at -225, however in a one game winner take all situation anything can happen. Luis Severino has had a great season but is only 23 years old and will be making his first career post-season appearance.
Right now there is underdog value +110 on the Twins even if the lose by a run. I expect the Twins to show some fight and even possibly pull off the upset. I am placing my bet for the Twins to keep this game with-in one run.
I am going to be as transparent as possible. Wednesday was another losing day at 1-2. The win came with the Braves pulling out a 3-1 12th inning victory over the Mets. We had the Braves at +1.5, too bad we punked out and didn’t go Braves Moneyline at +194.
The over 7.5 for the Yankees-Rays game was looking really good when the Rays took a 4-1 lead in the 2nd inning. Unfortunately there were no more runs scored beyond the second inning, and the Yankees went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position.
The beginning of this season has been very frustrating, however even if we were currently on a winning streak, the baseball season and sports handicapping is a marathon, not a sprint.
2017 MLB Season Results:
April 2, 2017: 0-2 (MLB Pot -$1,000)
April 3, 2017: 1-2 (MLB Pot -$835.53)
April 4, 2017: 2-2 (MLB Pot -$152.53)
April 5, 2017: 1-2 (MLB Pot -$519.23)
April 5 Recap: Game 1- $500.00 Marlins at Nationals UNDER 9 runs
Result: LOSS Nationals 6 Marlins 4
Game 2- $500.00 Yankees at Rays OVER 7.5 runs
Result: LOSS Rays 4 Yankees 1
Game 3- $500.00 Mets +1.5 Runs (-104)
Result: WIN Braves 3 Mets 1
Total season record (4-8 MLB Pot “-$2,507.29”)
With so many early games today, below I have all of my MLB Picks listed with a very brief explanation.
MLB Picks for April 6, 2017
Kansas City Royals (MONEYLINE +108) at Minnesota Twins
(Royals: Hammel) (Twins: Gibson) 1:10 pm EST
The Twins have won the first two games of the series and now come into the final game of this three game series as favorites. The Twins are 26-52 against American League Central opponents over the last 2 season. I am going with two picks here, the underdog Royals (+108) to get the win and the total of OVER 8 runs.
San Diego Padres (MONEYLINE +205) at Los Angeles Dodgers
(Padres: Weaver) (Dodgers: McCarthy) 3:10 pm EST
With odds of +205, you can make a profit but winning only 33% of your bets. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy has only made a total of 13 starts and 63 innings pitched the last two seasons. The Dodgers are +220 favorites, but the Padres have played them tough recently. These teams have split the last 22 games against each other with 11 wins a piece. Give me the Padres +205 MONEYLINE.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Twins (Berrios 2-3, 9.28) Tigers (Norris 1-2, 3.81) 1:10 pm EST
After winning the first two games of the series the Tigers have now improve to 9-2 against the Twins on the season. More importantly the Tigers have picked up two games on the Cleveland Indians and currently trail them by 5.5 games.
The Twins are playing for pride and experience at this point of the season and come in looking to snap a six game losing streak. Jose Berrios is a promising young pitcher, but he has heavily struggled this season. On May 16, Berrios allowed seven earned runs over two-third innings against Detroit. On the season opponents are hitting .328 against him and .423 at home. The opposing teams have score five runs or more in seven of the eight starts that Berrios has made this season.
The Tigers will be starting Daniel Norris who has a 2.93 ERA over his last three starts. Although Norris has pitched solid he has not yet gone past 5 1/3 inning in any of his starts and has not picked up a victory since June 29. Detroit is 2-4 overall in games that Norris has started this season.
Once again the value is very good for the Tigers as a favorite. At the moment Norris has been pitching better than Berrios, the Tigers are playing better than the Twins and the Tigers are the better team. On some boards the Twins are actually favorites at the moment. I am taking the Detroit Tigers money line -111 to sweep. I am also making a play on the Tigers over 4.5 runs (-135).