Saturday May 12 MLB Two Free Picks

A tough 0-3 yesterday makes this week interesting. This week we have had a five game losing streak, followed by a five game winning streak, followed by a current three game losing streak. Despite the 5-8 week so far in MLB, on the season our record is 45-38 up 11 Units.

I am making five picks today, with two free right here.

 Washington Nationals (-168.0) at
 Arizona Diamondbacks (+168.0) over +8.0

Game time: Saturday 5/12, 4:05 PM

Stephen Strasburg is 4-3 in 10 career starts against Arizona with a 3.59 earned run average. The OVER is 7-3 in Strasburg those starts against the Diamondbacks.

Strasburg is 0-1 against Arizona this season. He allowed five earned runs over 6 1/3 innings against the Diamondbacks on April 27.

Arizona will be starting Troy Scribner who had a 5.68 earned run average in five Pacific Coast League AAA starts this season.

MY PICK: OVER 8.0 RUNS TWO UNITS

 

 Seattle Mariners (-136.0) at
 Detroit Tigers (+136.0) over +9.0

Game time: Saturday 5/12, 4:10 PM GAME 1 of double header

While not great in his career, Tigers start Matthew Boyd has always been better at home and a better day time pitcher. This season Boyd is 1-1 with 1.47 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home.

Both the Tigers and Mariners have hit left handed pitching well this season. I give the edge to the Tigers in Game 1

MY PICK: Detroit Tigers moneyline (+133.0) TWO UNITS

 

 

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MLB Picks: Opening Day April 3

Rough day one start. We went 0-2 with two losses coming in the bottom of the 9th.  Results from April 2, 2017: 0-2  (MLB Pot -$1,000)

Game 1- $500.00 San Francisco Giants moneyline (-122.0) pick locked in 4/2/17 

Result: LOSS  Arizona 6 San Francisco 5

Game 2- $500.00 Chicago Cubs moneyline (-116.0) pick locked in 4/2/17 

Result: LOSS   St. Louis 4 Chicago Cubs 3

Here is my underdog pick of the day for today April 3.


Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
(Braves: Teheran)  (Mets: Syndergaard) 1:10 pm EST

teheran_1280_nddchni7_saj26eczAtlanta Bravers starter Julio Teheran is 7-3 in 14 career starts against the Mets with an ERA of 2.02 and a 0.989 Whip. Last season he was 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA against the Mets. Current Mets hitters have a .195 career average against Teheran. The Braves as a team are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in New York.

Mets starter Noah Synedergaard is 0-1 when starting against Atlanta with an ERA of 5.52 in three career starts. Current Braves are hitting .300 against Synedergaard.

The Atlanta Braves moneyline (+178.0)  are my pick and have value here.
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MLB Playoffs Game 2: National League Wildcard Game Pick (Oct.5, 2016)

 

Yesterday we got off to a 0-1 start in the MLB playoffs. We decided to take the Orioles in a match-up that I said could go either way. There was a lot to like about the Orioles, so I took the value and +142 that the Orioles were getting at the time.

The game went 11 innings and Buck Showalter turned to Ubaldo Jimenez instead of Zach Britton. Ball game. That’s playoff baseball.

San Francisco Giants (87-75) at New York Mets (87-75) 8pm EST

Giants: Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74) Mets: Syndergaard (14-9, 2.60)

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The MLB Wildcard round concludes Wednesday night with two teams that despite shaky seasons; always seem to find a way to win when needed.

The San Francisco Giants are World Series champs from the last three even-number years, 2010, 2012 and 2014.  The New York Mets are the defending National League champs from last season.

Both teams come in with identical regular season records, with the Mets winning the regular season series by taking four of the seven match-ups over the Giants. Six of the seven games between these two teams this season went Over the total.

Bumgarner has made six career starts against the Mets, all time he is 5-0 with a 1.80 earned run average against them. On the road this season Bumgarner is 6-5 with a 3.39 ERA.

Noah Syndergaard is 1-2 with a 3.66 earned run average in three all-time starts against the Giants. At home this season Syndergaard is 6-6 with a 2.90 ERA. It is worth noting that Syndergaard has allowed 48 stolen bases in 57 attempts this season, that is a MLB worst since Hideo Nomo allowed 52 steals in 2001.

Overall, I am going with the Giants in this game. I would love to throw out a better reason as to why, but I am putting my trust into Madison Bumgarner, Bruce Bochy and the rest of San Francisco in this one. My main reason, the Giants have won the last 10 straight playoff series’ that they have played in. The Giants have a 34-14 post season record since 2010, which covers their last three playoff trips, all which ended with world championships.

There is definitely a lot to like about the Mets’ chances here, but I cannot bet against the Giants, not this early.  Giants Moneyline -105
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Sunday May 29 (Nine MLB Picks against Vegas)

Here are my nine plays for Sunday May 29

 

1. Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays  (Red Sox -1.5, +120)

Red Sox (Price 7-1, 5.34)  Blue Jays (Dickey 2-6, 4.60)

After a rough start to the season, David Price is now 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA over his past three starts. Price is also 8-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last 10 meetings against the Blue Jays. Since the start of last season,  RA Dickey is 0-5 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts against Boston. I like the Red Sox here.

2. Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians (Orioles Moneyline -125)

Orioles (Tillman 6-1, 2.61)  Indians (Clevinger 0-1, 8.71)

Baltimore has lost five out of six games but I think things will begin turn around for the Orioles here.  Chris Tillman has been the Orioles best starting pitcher this season.

Cleveland rookie Mike Clevinger has allowed 10 earned runs in his first two starts over 10 1/3 innings. I like the Orioles to win here.

3. Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals (Royals +1.5, -125)

White Sox (Sale 9-1, 2.26) Royals (Volquez 5-4, 3.67)

White Sox are beginning to struggle coming in as loser of five in a row. Saturday the Royals scored seven runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to defeat the Sox.  Several Royals have very good career numbers against Sale.

I like the Royals here, but coming off of a bad start I do not doubt Chris Sale’s ability to get back on track and lead Chicago to victory. If Volquez can keep the Royals in the game before the bullpens take over then the advantage is in the Royals favor. I am picking the Royals to cover -1.5 here, meaning either Kansas City wins or loses by one run or less.

4. St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals (Nationals -1.5, +125)

Cardinals (Wacha 2-5, 5.04)  Strasburg (8-0, 2.79)

Michael Wacha has given up 14 earned runs in his last eight innings pitched and lost his last five decisions.  I am picking the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg, who has a chance to improve to 9-0 on the season.

5. Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics (Athletics Moneyline-165)

Tigers (Pelfrey 0-4, 5.55)  A’s (Hill 7-3, 2.18)

The Tigers are 3-6 against left handed pitchers on the season. Rich Hill beat the Tigers on April 26, allowing no earned runs over seven innings. Hill gives the A’s the clear pitching advantage here. The Tigers offense has been hot, but Mike Pelfrey starting does not give Detroit the best chance. I like Oakland to win.

6. San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Padres Moneyline -120)

Padres (Pomeranz 4-4, 1.70) Diamondbacks (Bradley 1-0, 7.84)

Arizona is starting Archie Bradley who has just been called up from AAA. Over 10 career starts he has a 6.26 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. The advantage here is with Drew Pomeranz and the Padres.

7. Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners (Mariners -1.5, +120)

Twins (Nolasco 1-3, 5.54)  Mariners (Walker 2-4, 2.70)

The Twins have won three in a row, I trend that should be coming to an end soon.  The Twins have lost the last five games that Nolasco has started.

Despite losing his last four decisions, Taijuan Walker has not allowed more then four earned runs in any starts this season. The Mariners are the better team with the better starting pitcher here. I like Seattle to win by more than a run.

8. Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (Braves Moneyline -130)

Marlins (Koehler 2-5, 4.79) Braves (Teheran 1-4, 2.57)

On April 16 Tom Koehler gave up five earned runs in 3 2/3 inning to the Braves. Current Braves hitters are batting .370 against Koehler overall.

As bad as Atlanta has been this season, the Braves are 5-0 against the Marlins.Julio Teheran has allowed only one run or less in his last six starts.  For his career Teheran is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 starts against the Marlins.  I like Atlanta to complete the sweep.

9. Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets (Dodgers Moneyline -210)

Dodgers (Kershaw 7-1, 1.48) Mets (Colon 4-3, 3.44)

The Dodgers defeated the Mets 5-0 when Clayton Kershaw faced Bartolo Colon on May 17 in Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 7-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his ten career regular season starts against the Mets. I am expecting a Dodgers win.

 

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Thursday May 5 MLB Picks

After winning our only MLB pick yesterday, here are four picks for today. We are picking two underdogs to win straight up

Thursday May 5 Picks

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians

Two picks: Tigers Moneyline+115 and Over 8.5 Runs -115

Tigers: Fulmer (1-0, 3.60  Indians: Bauer(0-0, 5.28)

The Detroit Tigers have had the Cleveland Indians number in recent years, that has not been the case this season. Cleveland is currently 5-0 on the season against the Tigers, a streak that I expect to end soon. Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer is 2-2 with a 6.94 ERA in seven career starts against Detroit. Bauer did pick up a win in relief against the Tigers on April 24, allowing two earned runs in 3 1/3 innings pitched.

Tigers prospect Michael Fulmer will get his second career start after winning his debut against Minnesota, allowing two runs in five innings.

The Tigers are 14-7 against every other team besides Cleveland this season,  the Indians are 7-12 when they are not playing the Tigers.  Despite the recent struggles in the rivalry, Detroit is an appealing underdog here.

With a Fulmer vs Bauer pitching match-up, I also like this game to go over 8.5 runs scored.  Tigers have had 17 out of 26 games go over this season.

 

New York Mets at San Diego Padres  (Mets  Moneyline -178)

Mets:  deGrom (3-0, 1.02  Padres: Rea 2-1, 4.61)

It is hard to predict what to expect from Padres rookie Colin Rea. Over his first five starts this season, he has been very good at times, but there have been shaky moments as well.

Jacob deGrom has only allowed two earned runs overall in his three starts this season, but also has not pitched more then six innings in any of his starts. The Mets however, are third in the National League in ERA (2.75), she the Mets are in good hands when deGrom comes out. The Padres bullpen ranks 14th in the National League with a 5.03 ERA.  I like the Mets to win here.

 

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (Rockies Moneyline +125

Rockies: Rusin  (1-0, 1.69)  Giants: (Cain 0-3, 7.00)

Matt Cain is 17-9 in his career against Colorado, but is off to a poor start this season. The Rockies are 8-5 overall this season as an underdog on the road an 11-9 overall as underdogs.

With the Rockies dangerous lineup and Matt Cain’s early season struggles, I like the incentive take the Rockies as a moneyline underdog here.

 

Record for the week:  6-4 

Get Sports Strong Season MLB record: 19-11

 

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