MLB Picks April 6

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Apr 5, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario (20) congratulates third baseman Miguel Sano (22) after scoring in the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

I am going to be as transparent as possible. Wednesday was another losing day at 1-2. The win came with the Braves pulling out a 3-1 12th inning victory over the Mets.  We had the Braves at +1.5, too bad we punked out and didn’t go Braves Moneyline at +194.

The over 7.5 for the Yankees-Rays game was looking really good when the Rays took a 4-1 lead in the 2nd inning.  Unfortunately there were no more runs scored beyond the second inning, and the Yankees went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position.

The beginning of this season has been very frustrating, however even if we were currently on a winning streak, the baseball season and sports handicapping is a marathon, not a sprint.

2017 MLB Season Results:

April 2, 2017: 0-2  (MLB Pot -$1,000)

April 3, 2017: 1-2 (MLB Pot -$835.53)

April 4, 2017: 2-2  (MLB Pot -$152.53)

April 5, 2017: 1-2  (MLB Pot -$519.23)

April 5 Recap:  Game 1- $500.00  Marlins at Nationals UNDER 9 runs

Result: LOSS Nationals 6 Marlins 4

Game 2- $500.00  Yankees at Rays OVER 7.5 runs

Result: LOSS Rays 4 Yankees 1
Game 3- $500.00 Mets +1.5 Runs  (-104)
Result: WIN Braves 3 Mets 1
Total season record (4-8 MLB Pot “-$2,507.29”)

With so many early games today, below I have all of my MLB Picks listed with a very brief explanation.

MLB Picks for April 6, 2017

Kansas City Royals (MONEYLINE +108) at Minnesota Twins
(Royals: Hammel)   (Twins: Gibson) 1:10 pm EST
The Twins have won the first two games of the series and now come into the final game of this three game series as favorites. The Twins are  26-52 against American League Central opponents over the last 2 season.  I am going with two picks here, the underdog Royals (+108)  to get the win and the total of OVER 8 runs.
San Diego Padres (MONEYLINE +205) at Los Angeles Dodgers
(Padres: Weaver)   (Dodgers: McCarthy) 3:10 pm EST
With odds of +205, you can make a profit but winning only 33% of your bets.  Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy has only made a total of 13 starts and 63 innings pitched the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are +220 favorites, but the Padres have played them tough recently. These teams have split the last 22 games against each other with 11 wins a piece. Give me the Padres +205 MONEYLINE.
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Wednesday June 8 MLB Day Game Preview

Early weekday games can sneak up on you before you have time to truly evaluate your best options. There’s a full slate of baseball later tonight along with a huge NBA finals game. However there’s equal opportunity to improve your bank roll this afternoon. Here is a preview of today’s early games in Major League Baseball, and my thoughts if you want to get your bets in early.

 

Cubs at Phillies

The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies will play in the rubber match of their series at 1:05 EST. The Cubs are favored as always, but at -180 money line odds. Phillies starter Vince Velasquez (5-2 , 3.67 ERA) has not pitched beyond five innings in his last four starts. This includes his May 29 start at Wrigley Field where he allowed nine hits and seven earned runs over 4 2/3 innings.

John Lackey (6-2 , 2.88 ERA) is 2-1 with a 4.55 ERA on the road this season due to two rough starts in April, but he is 3-0 with 1.57 ERA in day games this season.

If you decide to bet the Cubs you will have to lay down plenty of juice, but there are not enough reasons to confidently bet on the Phillies. My recommendation is to take Chicago.

Blue Jays at Tigers

The Detroit Tigers will look for their second consecutive series sweep when they host the Toronto Blue Jays. With Jordan Zimmerman on the mound, I like the Tigers chances.

Jordan Zimmerman has allowed more than three earned runs only once this season in 10 starts. The Tigers overall are playing their best baseball of the season and the offense will be a challenge for RA Dickey. Dickey is 4-1 against the Tigers since 2013 with a 4.15 ERA and Tigers hitter have a mixed history against him.

Right now the Tigers are finding ways to win and I like them as a -125 moneyline favorite.

Braves at Padres

I expect a good pitchers duel between two bad teams when the Atlanta Braves take on the San Diego Padres. The fact that Juilo Teheran is only 1-6 despite having a 2.92 ERA and 1.05 WHIP tells the story of how pathetic his run support has been this season. The Braves have managed to score more than three runs only once in the 12 starts made by Teheran this season.

With the Padres sending left handed pitcher Drew Pomeranz (5-5, 2.22 ERA) to the mound, don’t expect for Teheran’s run support to improve. Pomeranz has fallen on some hard luck as well, finding himself on the losing end of two 1-0 games this season, along with winning a 1-0 and 2-0 game. Pomeranz has a 3-1 and 0.73 ERA at home this season. At even money I would lean towards the Padres to win this game, but San Diego is a -150 favorite. So you have to ask if yourself if you really want to lay down -150 on the San Diego Padres against a pitcher as good as Teheran? Playing for under 7 runs is my recommendation here.

Rays at Diamondbacks

Overall this is a pretty even match-up on paper.
Jake Odorizzi (2-3, 3.33 ERA) has been pitching well for the Rays over his last four starts allowing no more than two runs in any of those starts. Archie Bradley (2-1, 4.94 ERA) is coming off of a very strong start against the Chicago Cubs where he only allowed one earned run over six innings with 10 strikeouts. The 8.5 over/under is also right where it should be. Nothing would surprise me in this game, and it is hard to trust the Diamondbacks at home where they are only 10-21 despite winning last night.
Personally among the four early games, this would be my least favorite to bet on.

 

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Sunday May 29 (Nine MLB Picks against Vegas)

Here are my nine plays for Sunday May 29

 

1. Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays  (Red Sox -1.5, +120)

Red Sox (Price 7-1, 5.34)  Blue Jays (Dickey 2-6, 4.60)

After a rough start to the season, David Price is now 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA over his past three starts. Price is also 8-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last 10 meetings against the Blue Jays. Since the start of last season,  RA Dickey is 0-5 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts against Boston. I like the Red Sox here.

2. Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians (Orioles Moneyline -125)

Orioles (Tillman 6-1, 2.61)  Indians (Clevinger 0-1, 8.71)

Baltimore has lost five out of six games but I think things will begin turn around for the Orioles here.  Chris Tillman has been the Orioles best starting pitcher this season.

Cleveland rookie Mike Clevinger has allowed 10 earned runs in his first two starts over 10 1/3 innings. I like the Orioles to win here.

3. Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals (Royals +1.5, -125)

White Sox (Sale 9-1, 2.26) Royals (Volquez 5-4, 3.67)

White Sox are beginning to struggle coming in as loser of five in a row. Saturday the Royals scored seven runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to defeat the Sox.  Several Royals have very good career numbers against Sale.

I like the Royals here, but coming off of a bad start I do not doubt Chris Sale’s ability to get back on track and lead Chicago to victory. If Volquez can keep the Royals in the game before the bullpens take over then the advantage is in the Royals favor. I am picking the Royals to cover -1.5 here, meaning either Kansas City wins or loses by one run or less.

4. St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals (Nationals -1.5, +125)

Cardinals (Wacha 2-5, 5.04)  Strasburg (8-0, 2.79)

Michael Wacha has given up 14 earned runs in his last eight innings pitched and lost his last five decisions.  I am picking the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg, who has a chance to improve to 9-0 on the season.

5. Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics (Athletics Moneyline-165)

Tigers (Pelfrey 0-4, 5.55)  A’s (Hill 7-3, 2.18)

The Tigers are 3-6 against left handed pitchers on the season. Rich Hill beat the Tigers on April 26, allowing no earned runs over seven innings. Hill gives the A’s the clear pitching advantage here. The Tigers offense has been hot, but Mike Pelfrey starting does not give Detroit the best chance. I like Oakland to win.

6. San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Padres Moneyline -120)

Padres (Pomeranz 4-4, 1.70) Diamondbacks (Bradley 1-0, 7.84)

Arizona is starting Archie Bradley who has just been called up from AAA. Over 10 career starts he has a 6.26 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. The advantage here is with Drew Pomeranz and the Padres.

7. Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners (Mariners -1.5, +120)

Twins (Nolasco 1-3, 5.54)  Mariners (Walker 2-4, 2.70)

The Twins have won three in a row, I trend that should be coming to an end soon.  The Twins have lost the last five games that Nolasco has started.

Despite losing his last four decisions, Taijuan Walker has not allowed more then four earned runs in any starts this season. The Mariners are the better team with the better starting pitcher here. I like Seattle to win by more than a run.

8. Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (Braves Moneyline -130)

Marlins (Koehler 2-5, 4.79) Braves (Teheran 1-4, 2.57)

On April 16 Tom Koehler gave up five earned runs in 3 2/3 inning to the Braves. Current Braves hitters are batting .370 against Koehler overall.

As bad as Atlanta has been this season, the Braves are 5-0 against the Marlins.Julio Teheran has allowed only one run or less in his last six starts.  For his career Teheran is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 starts against the Marlins.  I like Atlanta to complete the sweep.

9. Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets (Dodgers Moneyline -210)

Dodgers (Kershaw 7-1, 1.48) Mets (Colon 4-3, 3.44)

The Dodgers defeated the Mets 5-0 when Clayton Kershaw faced Bartolo Colon on May 17 in Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 7-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his ten career regular season starts against the Mets. I am expecting a Dodgers win.

 

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Wednesday May 25 MLB Picks

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (Cubs Moneyline -170)

Cubs (Arrieta 8-0, 1.29) Cardinals (Martinez 4-4, 3.56)

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Cubs are 9-0 when Arrieta has taken the mound this season

I am going to keep this real simple. Jake Arrieta is 8-0 and Cubs are 9-0 when he starts.  Betting on Jake Arrieta has not failed yet and there is no reason to jump ship now.  I’m picking the Cubs to win. 

 

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (Padres Moneyline +130)

Padres (Shields 2-6, 3.07)  Giants (Peavy 1-5, 8.21)

James Shields has lost twice to the Giants this season in 1-0 and 3-1 games. In those games he lost to Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. The Giants are 8-0 against the Padres this season, however the Padres have not yet face Jake Peavy this season, who has struggled.

After losing eight straight to the Giants this season, it is time for the Padre’s luck to turn around. I like San Diego as the underdog today.

 

Twitter @GetSportsstrong

Thursday May 5 MLB Picks

After winning our only MLB pick yesterday, here are four picks for today. We are picking two underdogs to win straight up

Thursday May 5 Picks

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians

Two picks: Tigers Moneyline+115 and Over 8.5 Runs -115

Tigers: Fulmer (1-0, 3.60  Indians: Bauer(0-0, 5.28)

The Detroit Tigers have had the Cleveland Indians number in recent years, that has not been the case this season. Cleveland is currently 5-0 on the season against the Tigers, a streak that I expect to end soon. Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer is 2-2 with a 6.94 ERA in seven career starts against Detroit. Bauer did pick up a win in relief against the Tigers on April 24, allowing two earned runs in 3 1/3 innings pitched.

Tigers prospect Michael Fulmer will get his second career start after winning his debut against Minnesota, allowing two runs in five innings.

The Tigers are 14-7 against every other team besides Cleveland this season,  the Indians are 7-12 when they are not playing the Tigers.  Despite the recent struggles in the rivalry, Detroit is an appealing underdog here.

With a Fulmer vs Bauer pitching match-up, I also like this game to go over 8.5 runs scored.  Tigers have had 17 out of 26 games go over this season.

 

New York Mets at San Diego Padres  (Mets  Moneyline -178)

Mets:  deGrom (3-0, 1.02  Padres: Rea 2-1, 4.61)

It is hard to predict what to expect from Padres rookie Colin Rea. Over his first five starts this season, he has been very good at times, but there have been shaky moments as well.

Jacob deGrom has only allowed two earned runs overall in his three starts this season, but also has not pitched more then six innings in any of his starts. The Mets however, are third in the National League in ERA (2.75), she the Mets are in good hands when deGrom comes out. The Padres bullpen ranks 14th in the National League with a 5.03 ERA.  I like the Mets to win here.

 

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (Rockies Moneyline +125

Rockies: Rusin  (1-0, 1.69)  Giants: (Cain 0-3, 7.00)

Matt Cain is 17-9 in his career against Colorado, but is off to a poor start this season. The Rockies are 8-5 overall this season as an underdog on the road an 11-9 overall as underdogs.

With the Rockies dangerous lineup and Matt Cain’s early season struggles, I like the incentive take the Rockies as a moneyline underdog here.

 

Record for the week:  6-4 

Get Sports Strong Season MLB record: 19-11

 

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