After the first two official days on the 2017 season, we are off to a bit of rough start. However, every team and every handicapper will likely run into at least an 1-4 stretch at some point this season. We went 1-2 yesterday, however I am not bragging about the win, which was a -304 moneyline play on the Dodgers. -304 is not the type of value I usually look for or make plays on, however yesterday it was too good to pass on. Here are the results so far this season:
April 2, 2017: 0-2 (MLB Pot -$1,000)
April 3, 2017: 1-2 (MLB Pot -$-835.53)
Game 1- $500.00 Atlanta Braves moneyline (+178.0)
Result: LOSS Mets 6 Braves 0
Game 2- $500.00 Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline (-304.0)
Result: WIN Dodgers 14 Padres 3
Game 3- $500.00 Texas Rangers moneyline (+109.0)
Result: LOSS Indians 8 Rangers 5
Total season record (1-4 MLB Pot -$1,835.53)
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Free picks for April 4, 2017
Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
(Indians: Carrasco) (Rangers: Perez) 8:05 pm EST
We took the Rangers yesterday, who blew a 5-1 to Cleveland lead and lost 8-5. Today as a +146 underdog we are taking the Rangers Moneyline again and OVER 9 runs.
Indians starter Carlos Carrasco is coming back from injury and posted a 10.80 ERA with his opponents hitting .397 BA against him this spring. I expect Carrasco to eventually get back into form from last season, but as a -146 favorite, I think he is a big risk tonight.
Rangers starter Martin Perez was 8-3 with a 3.24 ERA at home last season. But Perez did allow six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings at home to Cleveland last year.
Going with the +146 value for the Rangers and expecting a high scoring game.
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MLB Playoffs Game 3 Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers 4:30pm EST
Blue Jays: Estrada (9-9, 3.48) Rangers: Hamels (15-5, 3.32)
The American League Division Series begins Thursday with a rematch of last years series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers. This season the Rangers have home field advantage. In last seasons postseason five game classic between these two teams, the home team went only 1-4.
The Blue Jays won the regular season series 4-3, but the Rangers won two out of the three games played in Texas. The Rangers went 53-28 at home this season, tied with Cleveland for the best home record in the American League.
Cole Hamels is 0-3 against Toronto with a 5.29 ERA in six regular season starts, the over is 4-2 in those games. In last years ALDS, Hamels was 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts against Toronto. Current Blue Jays hitters have a lifetime .267 batting average and 4 home runs against Hamels.
The Rangers are 12-3 in Hamels home starts this season. Hamel has a 5-2 record in those home starts, but he has received very good run support, Hamels home ERA is 4.40 on the season. Hamels had 5.86 ERA in his last five starts. The Blue Jays who are 9-2 in their 11 games against a left-handed starter, will send Marco Estrada to the mound. Estrada had a 3.75 ERA in two starts against Texas this season, with no decisions. On the season Estrada is 6-2 with a 3.39 ERA in road starts. Opponents are also only hitting .203 against Estrada this season and .193 on the road. Marco Estrada will look to build off of a very solid 2015 playoff run were he was 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA.
The Rangers are favorites -140. I like Toronto’s chances in this game, and the +129 value. I have two plays for this game Blue Jays Moneyline +129 and UNDER 9 runs.
Here is a preview on two of my free picks in tonight’s games between contenders from the American League East and American League West.
Texas Rangers (Darvish 2-2, 3.09) at Baltimore Orioles (Bundy 3-3, 3.46) 7:05 pm EST
The Rangers head into Baltimore tonight with momentum and an improved roster. Texas has won seven of its last nine games, while the Orioles have dropped five of their last six games.
The Orioles will send out rookie Dylan Bundy for only his fourth career start. Bundy has pitched a total four scoreless innings over two relief appearances against the Rangers this season, but the Rangers will have some extra muscle in the line-up this time around. The Rangers were winners at the trading deadline by adding Jonathan Lucroy (.299, 13 homers, 50 RBI) and Carlos Beltran (.309, 22 homers, 64 RBI), who are both expected to make their Texas debuts tonight.
Yu Darvish has been solid in his six starts this season, not allowing more than three earned runs in any of his appearances.
The Rangers are 13-11 against the AL East this season. The Orioles are only 8-15 against the AL West including 1-3 against Texas. I expect Texas to improve their record against Baltimore to 4-1 on the season with a win tonight. I am taking the Rangers -115 moneyline.
Toronto Blue Jays (Dickey: 7-12, 4.66) at Houston Astros (McCullers: 6-4, 3.18) 8:10 pm EST
Astros starter Lance McCullers has allowed only one earned run in five of his last six starts. Over these last six starts McCullers has 50 strikeouts in 36 innings pitched.
Blue Jays starter R.A. Dickey has struggled recently. Over his last three starts, Dickey has allowed 17 earned runs over 14 2/3 innings. Astros hitters also come in to tonight with a lifetime .337 batting average and .895 OPS against Dickey in 98 career at bats. I like the Astros -155 moneyline here to defeat the Blue Jays for the second night in a row.
✅ Cleveland Indians ML
✅ Chicago White Sox ML
✅ Milwaukee Brewers ML
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Six MLB picks for Wednesday May 11
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers (Under 9 runs -115)
White Sox: (Latos 5-0, 2.62 Rangers Hamels 4-0, 2.68)
The 9 run over/under is on the high end seeing how well both of these starters have pitched. Unders are 18-13-3 in White Sox games this season. I expect a pitchers duel under 9 runs.
Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox (Red Sox -1.5, Even)
Athletics (Surkamp 0-2, 5.59) Red Sox (Porcello 5-1, 2.95)
The Red Sox have scored a total of 27 runs in the first two series games against the Athletics. Oakland has also lost eight of their last nine games. The A’s are expected to lose, so the odds on picking the Red Sox are only -185. I am taking the Red Sox -1.5 with the odds allowing us an even profit.
Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals
*Two Picks (Over 7 Runs -110 and Tigers Moneyline +140)
Tigers (Zimmerman 5-1, 1.10) Nationals (Scherzer 3-2, 4.60)
Two aces face their former teams in an expected pitchers duel. The over is 22-10 this season when the Tigers play. The Tigers are averaging 6.4 runs against National League teams this season, and the Tigers have faced some very good pitching during interleague play. Schrezer is second in MLB with nine home runs allowed. I like the chances of over seven runs being scored in this game.
It will be interesting to see how both pitchers match-up against their former teams. In the first two match-ups of the series the Tigers had a starting pitching disadvantage, and both of those games ended 5-4, with each team winning a game. The Tigers are good value here at +140 to win.
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels
*Two Picks (Over 7.5 Runs-120 and Cardinals Moneyline -132)
St. Louis: Garcia (2-2, 3.05) Angles (Shoemaker 1-4, 9.15)
Shoemaker has been recalled from AAA to make a start since the Angeles have four starters on the disabled list. Garcia was very sharp in his start allowing only two hits and no runs in seven innings against the Phillies. With Shoemaker pitching, I like the chances of this game going over 7.5 runs, I also like the Cardinals to win.
May 10 Record 2-1
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