Dec. 23 Dollar General Bowl: Toledo (11-2) vs. Appalachian St (8-4)

The Dollar General is a rematch of last season’s 2016 Camellia Bowl, where Appalachian State defeated Toledo 31-28.  Toledo came into last season’s match-up as a point favorite and the over and under was 59.5.

Both teams are very strong and experienced at the quarterback position. Appalachian State is led by fourth year starter Taylor Lamb at quarterback. Lamb threw for 119 yards and rushed for 126 yards last season against Toledo. In his career Lamb has scored a total of 113 touchdowns for Appalachian State and is the Sun Belt all-time record holder with 90 career touchdown passes.

Toledo senior quarterback Logan Woodside has thrown for 93 touchdowns and over 10,000 yards in his career. The Rockets will be the highest ranked offensive team that the Mountaineers have seen this season. Toledo averages 510 yards per game and 39.4 points.

Appalachian State ranked second in the Sun Belt conference with 215 rushing yards per game and first with 5.4 yards per carry. This could be a problem for the Rockets rushing defense.

Toledo is 1-4 against the spread in their last five non-conference games and the over is 6-2 in Rockets last eight non-conference games.  Appalachian State is  4-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record.

Last season I picked Toledo -1 and the under 59.5 point. The Toledo pick lost, but the under won but just a half point. In this 2017 match-up season Toledo is currently a 7.5 point favorite and the over/under total is 63 points.

Appalachian State ranked second in the Sun Belt conference with 215 rushing yards per game and first with 5.4 yards per carry. This could be a problem for the Rockets rushing defense.

I think the 7.5 point line, with the availability to buy a half point and get these to 8 points, is a bit high. I like Appalachian State to cover and the over.

 

Lines: Toledo -7.5

Get Sports Strong Predictions: Toledo 34 Appalachian State 31

Recommended Plays: Appalachian State +8 buying the hook if available and OVER 61 points

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2017 SEC and MAC Championship Free Picks

We were 2-2-1 last week on our college football picks. On the season so far we have a 42-36 record not including Money Line Cup Cakes or Parlays.

Click on the video below for two free picks.

 

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Camellia Bowl – Toledo vs Appalachian State (December 17, 2016 Prediction)

Camellia Bowl – Toledo Rockets (9-3) vs Appalachian St. (9-3) Preview

 

The Camellia Bowl features the Sun Belt Champion Appalachian State Mountaineers and the Toledo Rockets. Appalachian State will be playing in their second consecutive Camellia Bowl. In last season’s game the Mountaineers defeated the Ohio Bobcats 31-29

The Mountaineers have been very solid defensively this season allowing only 17 points per game (seventh in nation) and 326 yards per game (15th in the nation). The Toledo Rockets come in ranked 9th in the nation in offensive yards per game. Both teams come in with rushers who have over 1,300 rushing yards on the season. Jalin Moore leads the Appalachian State rushing attack with 1,367 rushing yards, while Kareem Hunt leads Toledo with 1,355 rushing yards.
Toledo has had more success in the passing game this season lead by Logan Woodside who has thrown for 43 touchdowns this season against only 9 interceptions. Three year started Taylor Lamb has been solid for Appalachian State, coming in with 60 touchdown passes 25 interceptions in his career of 36 starts.

Against the spread Toledo is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against the Sun Belt Conference and 8-0-1 against the spread in their last 9 non-conference games overall. The Over is only 1-4-1 in the last six Toledo games.

Appalachian State is 6-6 against the spread this season, and the over is 5-7 in the Mountaineers games.

On the season Toledo and Appalachian State both defeated the Akron Zips, their only common opponent. The Mountaineers defeated the Zips 45-38 on the road on Sept. 24. Toledo won at Akron 48-17 on Nov. 2.

The Mountaineers defense will challenge the Rockets, but overall I think Toledo’s balance attack will be too much.

 

My prediction:  Toledo 30 Appalachian State 24 (Toledo -1)

Under 59.5

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Toledo at BYU (Friday Sept. 30) and MAC Rankings

Conference play begins for 10 Mid-American Conference teams this weekend. After four weeks of play here is how I currently rank the teams in the MAC

  1. Western Michigan 4-0 @ Central Michigan Oct.
  2. Toledo 3-0 @ BYU Sept. 30
  3. Central Michigan 3-1 vs Western Michigan Oct. 1
  4. Ball State 3-1 vs Northern Illinois Oct. 1
  5. Ohio 2-2 @ Miami (Ohio) Oct. 1
  6. Akron 2-2 @ Kent Oct. 1
  7. Eastern Michigan 3-1 @ Bowling Green Oct. 1
  8. Buffalo 1-2 @ Boston College Oct. 1
  9. Miami (Ohio) 0-4 vs Ohio Oct. 1
  10. Bowling Green 1-3 vs. Eastern Michigan Oct. 1
  11. Kent State 1-3 vs Akron Oct. 1
  12. Northern Illinois 0-4 at Ball State Oct. 1

 

Toledo at BYU (Friday Sept. 30)

The 1-3 Cougars have had all of their first four games decided by three points or less

As we take a look at technically week 4 of the college football season, but week 3 for most teams, lets do a quick recap of last weeks games. BYU’s first four opponents have a combined record of 14-4.

The 3-0 Rockets will be facing their biggest test thus far in the season. Toledo has cruised so far winning its first three games by a combined total of 98 points but their opponents have a combined record of 1-10.

Toledo is currently a four point underdog. The Rockets are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games as a road underdog of between 3.5 to 10 points. Toledo is also 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight non-conference games against the spread. Overall Toledo has won five straight games against the spread as a home underdog.

Brigham Young is 6-0 against the spread in their last six home games but only 3-8 in their last 11 games against the spread when favored between 3.5 to 10 points.

Something has to give here, Toledo is 3-0 against the spread this season and despite a 1-3 record overall, BYU is a perfect 4-0 against the spread so far this season.

The Under is 18-3 in BYU’s last 21 Friday games. The Under is 14-3 in Toledo’s last 17 games as a road underdog.

I predicted this score without looking at the Spread or over/under. I see Toledo covering +4 and this game going Under 52 by the slimmest of margins. Although this is my lean, it is too close for comfort.

Prediction BYU 27 Toledo 24

 

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