Saturday May 12 MLB Two Free Picks

A tough 0-3 yesterday makes this week interesting. This week we have had a five game losing streak, followed by a five game winning streak, followed by a current three game losing streak. Despite the 5-8 week so far in MLB, on the season our record is 45-38 up 11 Units.

I am making five picks today, with two free right here.

 Washington Nationals (-168.0) at
 Arizona Diamondbacks (+168.0) over +8.0

Game time: Saturday 5/12, 4:05 PM

Stephen Strasburg is 4-3 in 10 career starts against Arizona with a 3.59 earned run average. The OVER is 7-3 in Strasburg those starts against the Diamondbacks.

Strasburg is 0-1 against Arizona this season. He allowed five earned runs over 6 1/3 innings against the Diamondbacks on April 27.

Arizona will be starting Troy Scribner who had a 5.68 earned run average in five Pacific Coast League AAA starts this season.

MY PICK: OVER 8.0 RUNS TWO UNITS

 

 Seattle Mariners (-136.0) at
 Detroit Tigers (+136.0) over +9.0

Game time: Saturday 5/12, 4:10 PM GAME 1 of double header

While not great in his career, Tigers start Matthew Boyd has always been better at home and a better day time pitcher. This season Boyd is 1-1 with 1.47 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home.

Both the Tigers and Mariners have hit left handed pitching well this season. I give the edge to the Tigers in Game 1

MY PICK: Detroit Tigers moneyline (+133.0) TWO UNITS

 

 

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MARCH 30 MLB FREE PICK

Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
Projected Starters: Nationals: Max Scherzer vs Reds: Homer Bailey 4:10pm EST

As we approach day two of the MLB season, Washington is the first big favorite that I really feel the need to jump on.

Projected Cincinnati Reds starter Homer Bailey was 0-2 with a 25.41 ERA against the Nationals last season. The Reds lost those games 18-3 and 14-4. Nationals hitters have a career .467 earned run average against Homer Bailey. In his career Bailey is 1-5 when starting against Washington with an ERA of 8.44

The Nationals send Max Schrezer to the mound who pitched six shut out innings against the Reds last season.

My Pick: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Two Units

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MLB Free Pick: Miami at Washington April 5

Day three of the season ended with a 2-2 finish, after a double loss in our free pick Indians-Rangers game, we bounced back with wins by the San Francisco Giants and a comeback win by the Los Angeles Angels.

April 2, 2017: 0-2  (MLB Pot -$1,000)

April 3, 2017: 1-2 (MLB Pot -$835.53)

April 4, 2017: 2-2  (MLB Pot -$152.53)

Game 1- $500.00  Texas Rangers ML +146 and OVER 9
Result: 2X LOSS  Indians 4 Rangers 3
Game 2- $500.00  Giants ML -146
Result: WIN  Giants 8 Diamondbacks 4
Game 3- $500.00 LAA Angels moneyline (+101.0)
Result: WIN Angels 7 A’s 6
Total season record (3-6 MLB Pot “-$1,988.06”)
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Free pick for April 5, 2017

Miami Marlins at Washing Nationals
(Marlins: Straily)  (Nationals: Roark) 7:05 pm EST
Where is the love for Tanner Roark? Coming off of a 16-10 record with a 2.83 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2016,  I grabbed Roark for $7 in my fantasy auction draft and he feel to the 9th and 13th round in my snake leagues. Anyway, Roark posted no worse than a 3.56 earned run average in any month of the 2016 season. Yes, Roark was just 2-4 against the Marlins last season, however he went 2-1 in his last three starts against them posting a 1.40 earned run average over 19 1/3 innings in those starts.
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Miami starter Dan Straily was quietly solid last season as well. Straily was not spectacular but only allowed over three earned runs pnly once in his final 17 starts last season. Washington hitters Bruce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Jayson Werth are also a combined 0 for 19 in their careers against Straily. Most lines right now are showing the over/under at 8.5 with 83% of the betting public taking the over. I definitely like the under here even at 8.5, however I was able to find the under at 9 runs (-110), and that is the recommended play
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Sunday May 29 (Nine MLB Picks against Vegas)

Here are my nine plays for Sunday May 29

 

1. Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays  (Red Sox -1.5, +120)

Red Sox (Price 7-1, 5.34)  Blue Jays (Dickey 2-6, 4.60)

After a rough start to the season, David Price is now 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA over his past three starts. Price is also 8-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last 10 meetings against the Blue Jays. Since the start of last season,  RA Dickey is 0-5 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts against Boston. I like the Red Sox here.

2. Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians (Orioles Moneyline -125)

Orioles (Tillman 6-1, 2.61)  Indians (Clevinger 0-1, 8.71)

Baltimore has lost five out of six games but I think things will begin turn around for the Orioles here.  Chris Tillman has been the Orioles best starting pitcher this season.

Cleveland rookie Mike Clevinger has allowed 10 earned runs in his first two starts over 10 1/3 innings. I like the Orioles to win here.

3. Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals (Royals +1.5, -125)

White Sox (Sale 9-1, 2.26) Royals (Volquez 5-4, 3.67)

White Sox are beginning to struggle coming in as loser of five in a row. Saturday the Royals scored seven runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to defeat the Sox.  Several Royals have very good career numbers against Sale.

I like the Royals here, but coming off of a bad start I do not doubt Chris Sale’s ability to get back on track and lead Chicago to victory. If Volquez can keep the Royals in the game before the bullpens take over then the advantage is in the Royals favor. I am picking the Royals to cover -1.5 here, meaning either Kansas City wins or loses by one run or less.

4. St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals (Nationals -1.5, +125)

Cardinals (Wacha 2-5, 5.04)  Strasburg (8-0, 2.79)

Michael Wacha has given up 14 earned runs in his last eight innings pitched and lost his last five decisions.  I am picking the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg, who has a chance to improve to 9-0 on the season.

5. Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics (Athletics Moneyline-165)

Tigers (Pelfrey 0-4, 5.55)  A’s (Hill 7-3, 2.18)

The Tigers are 3-6 against left handed pitchers on the season. Rich Hill beat the Tigers on April 26, allowing no earned runs over seven innings. Hill gives the A’s the clear pitching advantage here. The Tigers offense has been hot, but Mike Pelfrey starting does not give Detroit the best chance. I like Oakland to win.

6. San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Padres Moneyline -120)

Padres (Pomeranz 4-4, 1.70) Diamondbacks (Bradley 1-0, 7.84)

Arizona is starting Archie Bradley who has just been called up from AAA. Over 10 career starts he has a 6.26 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. The advantage here is with Drew Pomeranz and the Padres.

7. Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners (Mariners -1.5, +120)

Twins (Nolasco 1-3, 5.54)  Mariners (Walker 2-4, 2.70)

The Twins have won three in a row, I trend that should be coming to an end soon.  The Twins have lost the last five games that Nolasco has started.

Despite losing his last four decisions, Taijuan Walker has not allowed more then four earned runs in any starts this season. The Mariners are the better team with the better starting pitcher here. I like Seattle to win by more than a run.

8. Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (Braves Moneyline -130)

Marlins (Koehler 2-5, 4.79) Braves (Teheran 1-4, 2.57)

On April 16 Tom Koehler gave up five earned runs in 3 2/3 inning to the Braves. Current Braves hitters are batting .370 against Koehler overall.

As bad as Atlanta has been this season, the Braves are 5-0 against the Marlins.Julio Teheran has allowed only one run or less in his last six starts.  For his career Teheran is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 starts against the Marlins.  I like Atlanta to complete the sweep.

9. Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets (Dodgers Moneyline -210)

Dodgers (Kershaw 7-1, 1.48) Mets (Colon 4-3, 3.44)

The Dodgers defeated the Mets 5-0 when Clayton Kershaw faced Bartolo Colon on May 17 in Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 7-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his ten career regular season starts against the Mets. I am expecting a Dodgers win.

 

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Wednesday May 11 MLB Picks

Six MLB picks for Wednesday May 11

 

Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers (Under 9 runs -115)

White Sox: (Latos 5-0, 2.62 Rangers Hamels 4-0, 2.68)

The 9 run over/under is on the high end seeing how well both of these starters have pitched. Unders are 18-13-3 in White Sox games this season. I expect a pitchers duel under 9 runs.

 

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox (Red Sox -1.5, Even)

Athletics (Surkamp 0-2, 5.59)  Red Sox (Porcello 5-1, 2.95)

The Red Sox have scored a total of 27 runs in the first two series games against the Athletics. Oakland has also lost eight of their last nine games. The A’s are expected to lose, so the odds on picking the Red Sox are only -185.  I am taking the Red Sox -1.5 with the odds allowing us an even profit.

 

Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals 

*Two Picks (Over 7 Runs -110 and Tigers Moneyline +140)

Tigers (Zimmerman 5-1, 1.10)  Nationals (Scherzer 3-2, 4.60)

Two aces face their former teams in an expected pitchers duel.  The over is 22-10 this season when the Tigers play.  The Tigers are averaging 6.4 runs against National League teams this season, and the Tigers have faced some very good pitching during interleague play. Schrezer is second in MLB with nine home runs allowed. I like the chances of over seven runs being scored in this game.

It will be interesting to see how both pitchers match-up against their former teams. In the first two match-ups of the series the Tigers had a starting pitching disadvantage, and both of those games ended 5-4, with each team winning a game.  The Tigers are good value here at +140 to win.

 

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels 

*Two Picks (Over 7.5 Runs-120 and Cardinals Moneyline -132)

St. Louis: Garcia (2-2, 3.05)  Angles (Shoemaker 1-4, 9.15)

Shoemaker has been recalled from AAA to make a start since the Angeles have four starters on the disabled list. Garcia was very sharp in his start allowing only two hits and no runs in seven innings against the Phillies.  With Shoemaker pitching, I like the chances of this game going over 7.5 runs, I also like the Cardinals to win.

 

 

May 10 Record 2-1

Get Sports Strong  MLB Season Record 29-21

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Tuesday May 10 MLB Picks

You have to own the bad days along with the good days. May 9 was not a good day in baseball for us, dropping all three picks.  The season is a sprint not a marathon and we are still running today.  Here are three MLB picks for Tuesday to get back on track. 

May 9 Record 0-3

Get Sports Strong  MLB Season Record 27-20

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox (Over 9.5 Runs -120)

Athletics (Manaea 0-0, 7.20)  Red Sox (O’ Sullivan 0-0. 9.00)

Not a stellar pitching match-up. Sean O’Sullivan comes in with a 5.96 career ERA over 52 career starts.  A’s prospect Sean Manaea has allowed four runs in both of his first two career starts this season. After combining for 21 runs yesterday, I see these two teams going over 9.5 runs.

 

Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals (Nationals -1.5 Runs, +130)

Tigers (Fulmer 1-1, 6.30)  Nationals (Ross 3-1, 1.23)

Throughout the Tigers current seven game losing steak, you keep getting the feeling that the Tigers are too good to let this continue, but the bleeding has not stopped. Six of the seven losses during Detroit’s current losing steak have been by four runs or more.  The Tigers will send out rookie starter Micheal Fulmer who has given up 17 hits and 7 earned runs in 10 innings pitched so far.  Joe Ross has not allowed more than two runs in any start this season, and in the start were he allowed two earned runs he was facing the Cubs. I am picking Washington to win by more then one run.  With +130 odds this is a good opportunity to pick up some positive juice.

 

Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants (Blue Jays Moneyline -123)

Blue Jays (Happ 4-0, 2.50)  Giants (Cain 0-4, 7.84)

JA Happ

The recent trend of these two starting pitchers heavily favors Toronto.  Blue Jays starter, J.A Happ has made eight consecutive quality starts going back to last season.  Giants starter, Matt Cain has only had one quality start this season in six attempts. Cain’s last start resulted in a 17-7 loss to the Colorado Rockies. I like the Blue Jays to pick up the road victory.

 

 

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Monday May 2 MLB Picks

Monday May 2 Picks

Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays (Rangers Moneyline +122)

Rangers: Griffin (3-0, 2.52) Blue Jays: Dickey (1-3, 6.75)

Plus +122 odds is a good reason to take the Rangers here. A $100 wager on Texas will win you $122, while you would need to lay down $141 on Toronto in order to win $100. I would not take the Blue Jays here. RA Dickey has struggled this season, while Rangers starting pitcher A.J Griffin has pitched very well. Great opportunity to go with the Rangers to win here as an underdog.

Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros (Astros Moneyline -180)

Twins: Berrios (0-1, 11.25) Astros: Keuchel (2-3, 4.41)

The Astros and Twins come into this game with the two worst records in the American League.  This losing trend should come to an end for the Astros and their ace Dallas Keuchel soon. I expect Houston to get back on track, at least in this game. The play is Houston to win.

Washington Nationals @ Kansas City Royals (Washington Moneyline +105)

Nationals: Gonzalez (1-1, 1.42) Royals: Volquez (3-1, 3.34)

Gio Gonzalez had a great month for the Nationals and the Royals offense has been struggling. Very even match-up, but I like Washington in the underdog role here.

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (Over 7.5 -105)

Rockies: Gray (0-0 11.42) Padres: Shields (0-4, 3.34)

091615-MLB-Colorado-Rockies-third-baseman-Nolan-Arenado-PI-SW.vresize.1200.675.high.59
Nolan Arenado has had no problem hitting James Shields in his career (12 for 23) 4 HR 6 RBI

Rockies starter Jon Gray is capable of giving up seven runs on his own, while I do not necessarily believe he will, Gray does come in with a 6.57 ERA in 11 career starts.  The Rockies are scoring 5.5 runs a game, and some of their key hitters have had good success against James Shields.  Nolan Arenado will lead the way, he comes into the game hitting .522 with 4 HRs in his career against Shields. Look for at least 8 runs to be scored in this game. Over 7.5

 

 

Recapping last week MLB April 24-May 1 total: **13 wins 7 losses**

April 30 (1 win 2 losses)

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (Tigers Moneyline-135) WON

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Over 8 Runs -110) LOST

Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Marines (Royals Moneyline -110) LOST

May 1- No MLB picks

 

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