Saturday May 12 MLB Two Free Picks

A tough 0-3 yesterday makes this week interesting. This week we have had a five game losing streak, followed by a five game winning streak, followed by a current three game losing streak. Despite the 5-8 week so far in MLB, on the season our record is 45-38 up 11 Units.

I am making five picks today, with two free right here.

 Washington Nationals (-168.0) at
 Arizona Diamondbacks (+168.0) over +8.0

Game time: Saturday 5/12, 4:05 PM

Stephen Strasburg is 4-3 in 10 career starts against Arizona with a 3.59 earned run average. The OVER is 7-3 in Strasburg those starts against the Diamondbacks.

Strasburg is 0-1 against Arizona this season. He allowed five earned runs over 6 1/3 innings against the Diamondbacks on April 27.

Arizona will be starting Troy Scribner who had a 5.68 earned run average in five Pacific Coast League AAA starts this season.

MY PICK: OVER 8.0 RUNS TWO UNITS

 

 Seattle Mariners (-136.0) at
 Detroit Tigers (+136.0) over +9.0

Game time: Saturday 5/12, 4:10 PM GAME 1 of double header

While not great in his career, Tigers start Matthew Boyd has always been better at home and a better day time pitcher. This season Boyd is 1-1 with 1.47 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home.

Both the Tigers and Mariners have hit left handed pitching well this season. I give the edge to the Tigers in Game 1

MY PICK: Detroit Tigers moneyline (+133.0) TWO UNITS

 

 

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August 2 Dog of the Day (White Sox at Tigers)

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
(White Sox: Shields 5-12, 4.68) Tigers (Sanchez 5-11, 6.56) 7:10 EST

The Detroit Tigers are currently the hottest team in baseball coming off of two surprising sweeps over the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros. The Tigers are 6-4 against the White Sox this season and are looking to continue to climb in the American League Central. The Tigers are currently comfortable favorites everywhere, with some book markers showing them as the -160 favorite. As much as I still love the Tigers in the Central, I recommend staying away from them tonight at those odds.

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Detroit starter Anibal Sanchez is 2-5 when starting against the White Sox with 5.47 ERA in his career. Sanchez went 0-3 and posted a 8.41 ERA in the month of July and the Tigers have dropped the last 11 games that he has started. Current White Sox hitters also have killed Sanchez in his career, coming in with a career .369 batting average and 9-1-1 (.911 OPS) against Sanchez in a healthy sample size of 157 at bats.

On the other side, Chicago starter James Shields has seemed to turn things around. Despite a 2-3 July record, Shields posted a 1.78 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive starts. This includes a 2-1 loss to the Tigers on July 21.

The Tigers are on fire and a sexy team for bettors to ride right now, but at +140, the value is on the side of Chicago. I am betting against Anibal Sanchez and taking my chance with the White Sox +140 money line as my ”Dog of the Day.”

 

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Sunday May 29 (Nine MLB Picks against Vegas)

Here are my nine plays for Sunday May 29

 

1. Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays  (Red Sox -1.5, +120)

Red Sox (Price 7-1, 5.34)  Blue Jays (Dickey 2-6, 4.60)

After a rough start to the season, David Price is now 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA over his past three starts. Price is also 8-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last 10 meetings against the Blue Jays. Since the start of last season,  RA Dickey is 0-5 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts against Boston. I like the Red Sox here.

2. Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians (Orioles Moneyline -125)

Orioles (Tillman 6-1, 2.61)  Indians (Clevinger 0-1, 8.71)

Baltimore has lost five out of six games but I think things will begin turn around for the Orioles here.  Chris Tillman has been the Orioles best starting pitcher this season.

Cleveland rookie Mike Clevinger has allowed 10 earned runs in his first two starts over 10 1/3 innings. I like the Orioles to win here.

3. Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals (Royals +1.5, -125)

White Sox (Sale 9-1, 2.26) Royals (Volquez 5-4, 3.67)

White Sox are beginning to struggle coming in as loser of five in a row. Saturday the Royals scored seven runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to defeat the Sox.  Several Royals have very good career numbers against Sale.

I like the Royals here, but coming off of a bad start I do not doubt Chris Sale’s ability to get back on track and lead Chicago to victory. If Volquez can keep the Royals in the game before the bullpens take over then the advantage is in the Royals favor. I am picking the Royals to cover -1.5 here, meaning either Kansas City wins or loses by one run or less.

4. St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals (Nationals -1.5, +125)

Cardinals (Wacha 2-5, 5.04)  Strasburg (8-0, 2.79)

Michael Wacha has given up 14 earned runs in his last eight innings pitched and lost his last five decisions.  I am picking the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg, who has a chance to improve to 9-0 on the season.

5. Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics (Athletics Moneyline-165)

Tigers (Pelfrey 0-4, 5.55)  A’s (Hill 7-3, 2.18)

The Tigers are 3-6 against left handed pitchers on the season. Rich Hill beat the Tigers on April 26, allowing no earned runs over seven innings. Hill gives the A’s the clear pitching advantage here. The Tigers offense has been hot, but Mike Pelfrey starting does not give Detroit the best chance. I like Oakland to win.

6. San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Padres Moneyline -120)

Padres (Pomeranz 4-4, 1.70) Diamondbacks (Bradley 1-0, 7.84)

Arizona is starting Archie Bradley who has just been called up from AAA. Over 10 career starts he has a 6.26 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. The advantage here is with Drew Pomeranz and the Padres.

7. Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners (Mariners -1.5, +120)

Twins (Nolasco 1-3, 5.54)  Mariners (Walker 2-4, 2.70)

The Twins have won three in a row, I trend that should be coming to an end soon.  The Twins have lost the last five games that Nolasco has started.

Despite losing his last four decisions, Taijuan Walker has not allowed more then four earned runs in any starts this season. The Mariners are the better team with the better starting pitcher here. I like Seattle to win by more than a run.

8. Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (Braves Moneyline -130)

Marlins (Koehler 2-5, 4.79) Braves (Teheran 1-4, 2.57)

On April 16 Tom Koehler gave up five earned runs in 3 2/3 inning to the Braves. Current Braves hitters are batting .370 against Koehler overall.

As bad as Atlanta has been this season, the Braves are 5-0 against the Marlins.Julio Teheran has allowed only one run or less in his last six starts.  For his career Teheran is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 starts against the Marlins.  I like Atlanta to complete the sweep.

9. Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets (Dodgers Moneyline -210)

Dodgers (Kershaw 7-1, 1.48) Mets (Colon 4-3, 3.44)

The Dodgers defeated the Mets 5-0 when Clayton Kershaw faced Bartolo Colon on May 17 in Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 7-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his ten career regular season starts against the Mets. I am expecting a Dodgers win.

 

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Wednesday May 11 MLB Picks

Six MLB picks for Wednesday May 11

 

Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers (Under 9 runs -115)

White Sox: (Latos 5-0, 2.62 Rangers Hamels 4-0, 2.68)

The 9 run over/under is on the high end seeing how well both of these starters have pitched. Unders are 18-13-3 in White Sox games this season. I expect a pitchers duel under 9 runs.

 

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox (Red Sox -1.5, Even)

Athletics (Surkamp 0-2, 5.59)  Red Sox (Porcello 5-1, 2.95)

The Red Sox have scored a total of 27 runs in the first two series games against the Athletics. Oakland has also lost eight of their last nine games. The A’s are expected to lose, so the odds on picking the Red Sox are only -185.  I am taking the Red Sox -1.5 with the odds allowing us an even profit.

 

Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals 

*Two Picks (Over 7 Runs -110 and Tigers Moneyline +140)

Tigers (Zimmerman 5-1, 1.10)  Nationals (Scherzer 3-2, 4.60)

Two aces face their former teams in an expected pitchers duel.  The over is 22-10 this season when the Tigers play.  The Tigers are averaging 6.4 runs against National League teams this season, and the Tigers have faced some very good pitching during interleague play. Schrezer is second in MLB with nine home runs allowed. I like the chances of over seven runs being scored in this game.

It will be interesting to see how both pitchers match-up against their former teams. In the first two match-ups of the series the Tigers had a starting pitching disadvantage, and both of those games ended 5-4, with each team winning a game.  The Tigers are good value here at +140 to win.

 

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels 

*Two Picks (Over 7.5 Runs-120 and Cardinals Moneyline -132)

St. Louis: Garcia (2-2, 3.05)  Angles (Shoemaker 1-4, 9.15)

Shoemaker has been recalled from AAA to make a start since the Angeles have four starters on the disabled list. Garcia was very sharp in his start allowing only two hits and no runs in seven innings against the Phillies.  With Shoemaker pitching, I like the chances of this game going over 7.5 runs, I also like the Cardinals to win.

 

 

May 10 Record 2-1

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Saturday May 7 MLB Picks

Here are my six picks for Saturday May 7

 

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (Red Sox Moneyline -122)

Red Sox (Price, 4-0, 6.14)   Yankees (Eovaldi, 1-2, 5.46) 

For Price and Eovaldi, this is a rematch from a 8-7 Red Sox win on May 1. Despite the early season struggles of David Price, he has been better on the road (2.57 ERA) then at home (8.34 ERA). Collectively, Red Sox hitters have seen success against Nathan Eovaldi. David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez are a combined 15 for 33 (.454 BA) in their careers against Eovaldi. Anything goes in this rivalry, but Price is still the better starting pitcher in this match-up. Boston also leads all of MLB in batting average, while the Yankees rank 27th.  With both bullpens being about even, I like the Red Sox to win here.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays (Dodgers Moneyline -175)

Dodgers (Kershaw, 3-1, 1.96) Blue Jays: Dickey (1-3, 5.73)

I’m betting on Clayton Kershaw over R.A. Dickey.  Dickey is coming off of his best start of the season, where he allowed one earned run in 6 1/3 innings.  The Blue Jays however, still lost that game and have lost five out of the six games that Dickey has started. There is a lot of juice here, but I like the  Dodgers as the money line pick to win.

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (White Sox Moneyline -190)

Twins (Santana 0-1, 3.15) White Sox (Sale 6-0, 1.66)

Chris Sale has been great this season. The White Sox come in with the best record in the American League, while the Twins sit at the bottom. I took the White Sox last night and they won 10-4. I am taking the White Sox to win again.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves (Over 7.5 Runs, -115)

Diamondbacks (Miller  0-3, 8.49) Braves (Teheran 0-3, 3.72)

Overs are 16-9-3 for the Braves this season. Overs are 16-14-1 for the Diamondbacks.  Juilo Teheran has been very sharp in his last three starts but the Atlanta bullpen is shaky. Diamondback starter Shelby Miller is off to a terrible start.  Over 7.5 runs scored is not too much to ask for here.

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants  (Two picks: Giants Moneyline -165 and Over 7.5 Runs -105)

13 of the Giants last 15 games have gone over. With Jon Gray starting for the Rockies, 7.5 is a low number here. I am picking this game to go over 7.5 runs scored. I am also picking the Giants to win.

 

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Friday May 6 MLB Picks

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins ( Under 7 Runs -110)

Phillies: Velasquez (4-1, 1.44) Marlins: Chen (2-1, 4.26)

Phillies rookie Vince Velasquez has held his opponents to an .164 batting average this season. Only one of Velasquez five starts have gone over the run line this season. The Phillies will need Velasquez to be sharp once again. Offensively, the Phillies have a .166 batting average against left-handed pitchers, which is the worst in Major League Baseball. Phillies batters also only have a .167 career batting average against Marlins starter Wei-Yin Chen. With the numbers favoring the pitching, I am picking this game to go under 7 runs scored.

 

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (Sox Moneyline -132)

Twins: Nolasco (1-0. 4.05) Sox: Latos (4-0, 1.84)

Twins hitter have a career average of .143 against Latos as a team. Twins have a 2-12 road record this season. With Matt Latos and the White Sox playing so well up to this point, I have to take the White Sox to win at home.

Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles ( A’s Moneyline -106)

Athletics: Hill (3-3, 2.53)  Orioles: Jimenez (1-3, 5.20)

Rick Hill, the 36 year old left hander has pitched very well in this young season. He has a 0.95 ERA on the road this season in three starts. In those starts he faced the Mariners, Yankees and Tigers.  Against Ubaldo Jimenez, I like the Athletics in this game to win.

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