June 11-Betting on the “Mismatches? “ The Favorites I like vs. Fool’s Gold
Always remember that there is no such thing as a sure thing when betting on sports. Friday night was a very good night for those betting on big underdogs. The Atlanta Braves win paid out a very rewarding +180 to those who were brave enough to pick Atlanta over the Chicago Cubs.
The St. Louis Cardinals cashed in with a +150 win over Pittsburgh, the San
Diego Padres came through with four runs in the top of the 9th inning for a +190 win at Colorado and the Miami Marlins pulled out a +140 win at Arizona.
Overall the teams that were underdogs by at least a +140 margin were 4-4. This means that $100 a game player could have won $260 if they bet all of those underdogs despite going only .500. Obviously big underdogs are underdogs for a reason, but by picking the right ones, you can turn a nice profit long term even without a winning record. If you chase the wrong favorites and only play favorites, you will probably see a dip in your bankroll long term
On Saturday the two biggest underdogs are San Diego +200, Atlanta +255 and Arizona +165.
Favorite I love most: “Boston Red Sox- 137 over Minnesota Twins”
Before thinking too much, let us first remember the Red Sox are a much better team than the Twins. The Red Sox have a winning record on the road (16-13) and the Twins have a losing record (11-20) at home. Both teams are also sending young pitchers to the mound. The Twins are hitting .236 with a .704 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, while the Red Sox are hitting .291 with a .837 OPS against right-handed pitching. Since the Red Sox are sending Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound the juice is not over whelming which is why against Kyle Gibson I like the Red Sox here.
Favorite I like the least: “Colorado Rockies”
The Rockies are -205 money line favorite, but the odds are significantly better if you pick the Rockies to win by more than one run (-115). The Rockies are only 4-8 in one run games this season, so you would think that if the Rockies win it will probably be by more than one run. Tyler Chatwood (7-4, 2.79 ERA) has been a different pitcher at home versus on the road. Chatwood who will be pitching at home is only 2-4 with a 5.30 ERA at Coors Field. The Rockies have only won one of Chatwood’s six home starts by more than a run this season. The Padres are sending Erik Johnson (0-2, 6.94 ERA) to the mound who has struggled in his first two starts at home. We would expect Coors Field could be a rude awakening for Johnson, but the run support could be there for him today. This could be a wild game at home and who knows what the Rockies bullpen may do tonight.
Favorite I like second “Miami Marlins -180 over Arizona Diamondbacks”
Jose Fernandez has pitched 41 innings over his last six starts and only allowed only three earned runs over that span. Even on the road this season Fernandez is a very impressive 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA.
Zack Godley will be making his first start for the Diamondbacks this season, he was 4-5 with a 3.61 and 1.31 WHIP in the minors this season which are his totals between going 2-0 in AAA Reno and 2-3 at AA Mobile. I understand Goldley was 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA last season for the Diamondbacks; however he has never gone past six innings in a MLB game. I will take my chances with Miami and Jose Fernandez here against Goldley in his 2016 big league debut.
As for those “Chicago Cubs”
Atlanta sends Matt Wisler (2-6, 3.98 ERA) to the mound and the Braves have lost nine of his 11 starts this season with seven of those loses being by
two runs or more. As bad as these numbers sound, Wisler has actually
been solid most of the season but the run support has not been there. Wisler is coming off of his worst start of the season where he allowed eight earned runs in four innings against the Dodgers. Current Cubs hitters are 6 for 15 with 3 homeruns against Wisler for this career.
The Cubs have now lost Jake Arrieta’s last two starts after winning in
his previous 23 starts. It sounds like the Cubs should get back on track behind Arrieta, but before you run out and bet on the Cubs money line (-281), keep in mind that a $100 bet will only win you $ 35, meaning that if you bet a game with these odds you will need to win about 75% of the time in order to profit long term, and the profit will not be huge. If you pick underdogs as big as the Braves (+255) are today, you will need to win only 29 % of the time to turn a profit.
If you bet the Cubs here, the play is for the Cubs to win by more than one run where you can get the odds to -153, which is not a bad bet. The other option is to be a take the risk and be brave enough to take Atlanta.
Previous trends show that the Cubs should win this game by more than a run. However Wisler is perfectly capable of keeping this game low scoring and giving the Braves a chance. I have seen odds as high as Chicago +325. Matt Wisler is no scrub and even though Chicago should win, the value in the Cubs as a money line pick is simply not worth the risk, unless you use the Cubs as a part of a parlay.