Wednesday has a slate of day games that maybe beginning before you take your lunch break. We’ve been on a pretty good run lately and there are two early games where I believe the underdogs are worth the risk to pick up some extra units.
Remember, when betting on underdogs going only 50% can turn a huge profit. For example if you bet on a +115 underdog you will profit if you can pick at a 47% success rate. When betting on a +160 underdog you only need to hit 39% of the time.
Tigers (Fulmer 8-2, 2.17) Indians (Tomlin 9-1, 3.21)
The Indians dominance of the Tigers this season has been astonishing. The Tigers are still four games over .500 despite being 0-11 against Cleveland. Josh Tomlin will be making his fourth start of the season against Detroit, so far he is 3-0 with a 2.61 earned run average against the Tigers. Tomlin is also 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA in day games and Cleveland is 13-2 overall when he has started this season.
The Tigers will counter with rookie Michael Fulmer who is one of the biggest snubs off of the American League all-star team. The Tigers are 10-2 when Fulmer starts this season with one of those loses coming to Cleveland on May 5 in his second career start. Fullmer has allowed a total of three earned runs over his last eight starts, good for a 0.53 ERA over that span. For all you sabermetrics guys out their, Fullmer is also ranked third among all American League pitchers this season with 3.16 wins above replacement.
I came across an interesting stat that was quoted by ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Schoenfield stated, “ If we hypothesize that these teams are otherwise equal (Detroit’s winning percentage when not playing the Indians is over .600), the odds of one team winning 11 in a row over the other would be .00049 percent.”
I’m taking a chance here and going with the underdog Detroit Tigers +115 to finally break their losing streak to Cleveland.
The Indians have not allowed more than four runs as a team in Tomlin’s last six starts. The Tigers have allowed more than two runs as a team only once in Fulmer’s last seven starts. Even though both of these teams games go over more than 54% of the time, I am also leaning towards under 8.5 runs due to the pitching match-ups, although the bullpens could put this at risk late.
Reds (DeSclafani 2-0, 1.78) Cubs (Warren 3-1, 4.56)
The Cubs are 10-2 against the Reds and not one game has yet gone under; the overs are 10-0-2. The Reds snapped a five game losing streak to the Cubs yesterday with a 9-5 win as a +260 underdog. The Reds are never going to be favored over the Cubs, but I think today is a great time to take a chance on Cincinnati +160.
The Cubs are sending Adam Warren to the mound who despite his 3-1 record will be making his first career big league start. He did post a 4.15 ERA in two Triple-A starts this season over 8.2 innings.
Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his five starts this season.
Betting on the Reds is always a risk, but at +160, I feel that this is a risk worth taking.
Good luck today. I know that both the Tigers and Reds have struggled against their opponent this season, but I like both of their chances to break the trend today.