July 19 Full MLB Picks
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
(Twins: Milone 2-2, 5.23) Tigers (5-10, 6.75)
The Detroit Tigers have had their way with the Minnesota Twins this season winning all seven match-ups up to this point. When first taking a look it is easy to pencil the Tigers in as winning their eight straight game against the Twins, but of course things are often not as simple as they seem.
The Tigers are sending Annibal Sanchez to the mound. Sanchez’ career numbers against the Twins are very impressive, 4-3 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, however Sanchez is currently only a shell of the pitcher that the Twins faced in the past. Detroit has lost its last nine games that Sanchez has started with his last win as a starter coming on April 28 against Oakland.
Tommy Milone is coming in off of a two game winning streak where he has received a total of 26 runs of support. Current Tigers have a .356 career batting average against Milone and the Tigers will need to slug their way to victory. Detroit has now gone eight straight games without scoring over four runs, they will definitely need over four to win this game. Tommy Milone did win at Comerica Park last season in his only start their and was 2-1 against the Tigers overall.
I expect a slug fest and I am playing the over, even at 10 runs. The game is a toss up, but+134 is good value to bet against Sanchez. I am taking the Twins in the upset.
Prediction: Twins 7 Tigers 5
Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
(Braves: Jenkins 0-1, 4.50) (Reds: Reed 0-4, 8.39)
Neither Tyrell Jenkins nor Cody Reed has much success yet in their young careers as starting pitchers, and tonight both young arms will be seeking their first career win.
Reds started Cody Reed is winless in nine career starts, while Braves starter Tyrell Jenkins will be making only his third career and second
start of the season. In his only start of the season Jenkins allowed one earned run in 4.2 innings in what led to a 4-3 Braves loss to the Phillies. Jenkins is yet to throw over 64 pitches in any game this season.
The Reds have allowed at least five runs in each start that Reed has made this season, with every game having at least a combined total of nine runs scored. Reed has only gone beyond five innings in one start, but he will hope for better results against a Braves offense that has struggled lately.
Atlanta has only scored over three runs twice in their last 12 games, however those two games came against south paw starters Chris Sale and Jose Quintana of the Chicago White Sox.
For two winless pitches, the -148 seems like a high price tag for the Reds to be worth the wager to me. I expect that the bullpens will have a lot to do with the final outcome of this game and the Reds bullpen is not very good, coming in with a 5.56 ERA on the season. Despite the recent struggles today is a great opportunity for the Atlanta offense to come alive.
With so much uncertainty around this game bet at your own risk. However, I am going with Atlanta. With things being able to go either way, the best value bet is with the +136 Braves as an underdog.
The overs are 52-33-8 in Cincinnati Reds games this season, which is the second highest percentage of games going over among all teams in Major League Baseball. If the over/under drops back down to 9 runs before the first pitch I may make a play on the over, but at the moment 9.5 runs is not a number that I am as comfortable with. In my crystal ball I would predict a 5-4 Braves win.
Stay tuned and good luck!
Philadelphia Phillies moneyline (-132.0)
Houston Astros moneyline (-163.0)
Over (+10.0) Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers adjust +112.0
Minnesota Twins moneyline (+134.0)
Atlanta Braves moneyline (+144.0)
Toronto Blue Jays moneyline (-193.0)
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