Detroit Tigers (Pelfrey 3-9, 4.78 ) at Boston Red Sox (Wright 12-5, 2.67)
Yesterday, we started the week with a 3-2 start. Today leading the way is a repeat of one of our successful plays from last night by playing the over/under on the Tigers and Red Sox.
Both the Tigers and Red Sox have been strong plays on the over this season. Boston ranks fifth in all of MLB in percentage of games going over, while the Detroit Tigers rank ninth. The recent trends however have told a different story, the Over is 2-12-1 in Detroit’s last 15 games and also only 6-9 in Boston’s last 15.
Expectations for Tiger’s starter Mike Pelfrey tend to be pretty low each time he steps on the mound, but Pelfrey has had a solid July posting a 3.72 ERA over four starts.
Steven Wright had two of his lesser starts in July, but overall has been very good this season. In his last outing Wright allowed only one earned run, while striking out nine batters over eight innings against the Minnesota Twins. Overall, Wright has allowed more than three earned runs in only three of his 13 starts this season.
At -190 I am not betting on the Red Sox, even though I am leaning on them winning this game. The alternative line of under 12.5 can also get you -195 value at the moment.
My play here is the UNDER 11 runs (-110). Last night I felt the over of 10 was too high and played the over, the total ended up at six. For the second night in a row, I believe that the Over is too high.
Other Picks for Today
✅ Over 8.5 Cincinnati Reds San Francisco Giants EVEN
✅ Houston Astros ML Over New York Yankees (-140)
✅ Baltimore Orioles ML Over Colorado Rockies (-185)
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