American Division Series: Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (Oct. 6, 2016)

MLB Playoffs Game 3 Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers  4:30pm EST

Blue Jays: Estrada (9-9, 3.48) Rangers: Hamels (15-5, 3.32)

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The American League Division Series begins Thursday with a rematch of last years series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers. This season the Rangers have home field advantage. In last seasons postseason five game classic between these two teams, the home team went only 1-4.

The Blue Jays won the regular season series 4-3, but the Rangers won two out of the three games played in Texas. The Rangers went 53-28 at home this season, tied with Cleveland for the best home record in the American League.

Cole Hamels is 0-3 against Toronto with a 5.29 ERA in six regular season starts, the over is 4-2 in those games.  In last years ALDS, Hamels was 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts against Toronto.  Current Blue Jays hitters have a lifetime .267 batting average and 4 home runs against Hamels.

 

The Rangers are 12-3 in Hamels home starts this season. Hamel has a 5-2 record in those home starts, but he has received very good run support, Hamels home ERA is 4.40 on the season.  Hamels had 5.86 ERA in his last five starts. The Blue Jays who are 9-2 in their 11 games against a left-handed starter, will send Marco Estrada to the mound. Estrada had a 3.75 ERA in two starts against Texas this season, with no decisions.  On the season Estrada is 6-2 with a 3.39 ERA in road starts. Opponents are also only hitting  .203 against Estrada  this season and .193 on the road. Marco Estrada will look to build off of a very solid 2015 playoff run were he was 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA.

The Rangers are favorites -140. I like Toronto’s chances in this game, and the +129 value.  I have two plays for this game Blue Jays Moneyline +129 and  UNDER 9 runs.

 

 

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