Game 1 Result: Indians 6 Cubs 0
My Game 1 Picks : UNDER 6.5 runs (-110) WIN
Cleveland +1.5 runs (-168) WIN
OVERALL 2016 PLAYOFF RECORD 20-13
Game 2 – Chicago Cubs: Arrieta (18-8 , 3.10 ERA) Indians: Bauer (12-8, 4.26)
The Indians improved their postseason record to 6-1 as underdogs last night, while the Under improved to 8-1 in Indians games.
Tonight the Indians will send Trevor Bauer to the mound looking to take a 2-0 series lead. Bauer’s impact in game two is a huge question mark after he could only throw 21 pitches on Oct. 17 before being forced to leave the game due to excessive bleeding from his finger. Six Indians relievers then came to pitch 8 1/3 inning combine while allowing only two runs, leading the Tribe to a 4-2 victory over Toronto.
The Cubs have dropped both of Jake Arrieta’s starts this post season along with Arrieta’s last three road starts overall. The Over is 12-2 in Arrieta’s last 14 road starts. Also the Cubs are just 4-9 in Arrieta’s last 13 starts against a team with a winning record.
No matter how much a match-up does not favor them on paper, it’s getting tough to bet against Cleveland, because they have heavily reward bettors with their underdog value as they continue to win. I have no idea what to expect out of Trevor Bauer tonight and Andrew Miller is most likely not going to be available out of the Cleveland bullpen.
The Cubs are currently -143 moneyline favorites. Personally I do not think that’s good value based on the way the Indians are playing at home and the recently inconsistencies from Arrieta on the road.
Bauer’s first postseason start was the Indians only game that went above the over/under line this postseason this season. I honestly can see anything going tonight.
My favorite play for this game is actually OVER 3.5 Runs at the 5 inning line.
Enjoy the game!
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