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5 Free College Football Picks (Nov. 12, 2016)
Here’s a quick rundown on five of my favorite college football plays for Saturday Nov. 12
Rutgers (+14.5) at Michigan State
Michigan State being a 14.5 point favorite here seems to be more based on tradition than based upon this seasons performance.
Michigan State is only 2-7 against the spread this season. Even worse, the Spartans are 0-7 as a favorite against the spread. Last season the Big Ten champion and college football playoff qualifier Spartans only won this game by 7.
Rutgers is not a good team, however Rutgers lost by only six as a 13.5 point underdog to Indiana, and lost by only two points as an 18 point road underdog to Minnesota the week prior.
I see Rutgers +14.5 keeping this game closer than 2 TDs.
Prediction: Michigan State 31 Rutgers 27
2. Mississippi St (+29) at Alabama
The number one team in the country is expect to roll over Mississippi State by more than 4 touchdowns. Alabama comes in at 7-2 ATS this season, but the 29 points is the most that Alabama has been favored by since they failed to cover as a 37.5 point favorite against Kentucky on Oct. 1.
Alabama is coming off of a physical 10-0 win at LSU and the Under is 14-2-1 in the last 17 meetings between Alabama and Mississippi State. A 29 point spread is high for two teams that like to run the ball as much as these teams and Alabama is 3-10 against the spread in the last 13 games of this series when Mississippi State scores at least two touchdowns.
Roll Tide, but I predict the Mississippi State +29 competes and covers.
Prediction: Alabama 34 Mississippi State 14
3. Wake Forest (+35) at Louisville
Something has to give here, as the Louisville Cardinal lead the nation averaging 50.2 points per game host the Wake Forest Demon Deacons who are averaging an ACC best 18.1 point per game. The Louisville defense however is not far behind allowing only 21.2 points per game. Wake Forest however has struggled offensively ranking 13th out of 14th ACC teams in scoring.
Louisville should win easily, but Wake Forest is a solid team overall and 35 points is a huge margin here. Last season Louisville defeated Wake Forest 20-19 as a 11 point favorite.
Louisville is only 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Wake Forest on the other hand is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games against a winning team.
I respect the defense of Wake Forest +35 enough to pick them to cover.
Prediction Louisville 38 Wake Forest 13
4. South Florida at Memphis OVER (+73.5)
Two high powered offenses here, USF averages 43.8 points per game and Memphis averages 38.9. I expect a shootout in a highly competitive game.
Prediction South Florida 45 Memphis 42
5. USC at Washington (-7.5)
Washington is 15-2 against the spread in their last 17 games as a favorite of between 3.5 to 10 points.
USC is 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Washington 20-9 against the spread in their last 29 games as a home favorite.
USC is 8-21 against the spread in their last 29 road games
Overall Washington is just better and eyeing a conference championship and beyond. I like Washington here to cover -7.5
Prediction Washington 41 USC 23
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