April 16 MLB Picks

Colorado Rockies (8-5) at San Francisco Giants (5-8)

(Rockies:Senzatela  1-0, 1.50) (Giants: Samardzija 0-2, 6.75)

The Giants, who are currently favorites (-123) are hoping to pick up a spilt today when they wrap up a four game series at home against the Rockies. The Giants have dropped both of Samardizja’s first two starts this season and are only 5-8 overall despite being favored in all 13 games they’ve played so far.

20170411__2612020_antonio-senzatela-rockies-beat-padres-1In his career Jeff Samardzija’s teams are 5-2 all time when he starts against the Rockies, however both losses came last season, when Samardzija was 1-2 against the Rockies in four starts despite a 2.51 earned run average and racking up 34 strikeouts in 28 and 2/3 innings.

The Colorado Rockies are 4-2 as moneyline underdogs on this young season. Rookie Antonio Senzatela will be making his third career start and the Rockies won both of Senzatela’s first two starts as underdogs. Senzatela has allowed two earned runs over 12 innings while picking up 11 strikeouts. The Rockies bullpen is 4-0 with a 2.80 ERA and seven saves on the season.

Colorado is 12-10 against the Giants in San Francisco and 22-19 against the Giants overall the past three seasons. The value and trends favor the Rockies here who have the better value on their side.

Prediction: Rockies 5 Giants 3 (Rockies Moneyline)

Philadelphia Phillies (4-7) at Washington Nationals (6-5)

(Phillies: Eickhoff 0-1, 1.98) (Nationals: Gonzalez 1-0, 0.69)

Jerad Eickhoff is 1-1 against the Nationals with an 2.37 earned run average in three career starts. The Under is 2-1 in those games with Washington never scoring more than three runs. Nationals hitters have a combined batting average of .222 against Eickhoff.

Gio Gonzalez is 10-6 in his career against the Phillies with a 2.67 ERA, including only a 1.37 ERA against them last season in four starts. The Under is 11-8 in Gio’s career against the Phillies.

My Pick: UNDER 8 RUNS

 

Chicago White Sox (5-5) at Minnesota Twins (7-4)

(White Sox: Shields 1-0, 1.69) (Twins: Santiago 1-1, 2.38)

Santiago was 4-0 with a 1.03 earned run average against the White Sox in 2016.  White Sox hitters also only have a combined career .141 batting average while slugging .221 against him. Santiago is off to a nice start with 1-1 record and 2.38 ERA, with his loss coming to the Detroit Tigers in a 2-1 game where he allowed a two-run homer.

James Shields went five and 1/3 innings in both of his starts this season, allowing only two hits and one earned run in each game to Detroit and Cleveland.

Both teams bullpens have been very good so far, with the White Sox bullpen currently holding a 1.44 earned run average with the Twins bullpen not far behind with a 1.53 earned run average, good for second and third best in the American League respectively.

Both teams have only played in two games that have had more than nine total runs  so far this season. I am confidently picking under 9 Runs.

My Pick: UNDER 9 RUNS

 

 

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