National League Wildcard Game Pick: Colorado at Arizona (Oct. 4, 2017)

Colorado Rockies (87-75) at Arizona Diamondbacks (93-69)  8pm EST

Rockies: Gray (10-4, 3.67) Diamondbacks: Greinke (17-7, 3.20)

Favorite: Arizona Diamondbacks -165

The Rockies and Diamondbacks will face each other tonight for the 20th time this season. The winner will move on to face the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the loser will see an impressive season come to an end.
Both teams are surprises to be in this position, in 2016 the Diamondbacks only won 69 games and the Rockies won 75.

 

The Diamondbacks will be sending Zack Greinke to the mound. Greinke is 13-1 with a 2.87 earned run average at home this season. Against the Rockies Greinke was 2-1 with a 3.41 earned run average in five starts.

Rockies starter Jon Gray is 5-3 with a 4.06 earned run average on the road this season. In three starts Gray is 2-1 with a 3.50 earned run average against Arizona this season, however, on the road at Arizona (Chase FIeld) Gray is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA.

Arizona holds the edge in the season series 11-8. Both teams split the ten games played in Arizona 5-5. While Arizona actually won six out of nine games in Colorado.

Why I can see Colorado winning: 
-The Rockies will be facing Greinke for the sixth time this season.

-Rockies starter Jon Gray is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA at Chase field this season.

-Gray has also dominated Diamondbacks slugger Paul Goldschmidt who is 0-11 lifetime against him.

-I don’t trust Diamondbacks closer Fernando Rodney who has two saves but also two blown saves against the Rockies this season.

Why I can see Arizona winning:

-Zack Greinke will be making his 10th career post season start against Jon Gray who will be making his first. Greinke has a 2-2 record and 2.38 ERA in his last four six post season starts. This is the time of the season where aces shine and but carry teams on their back.

-The Diamonbacks have the hottest player in baseball, J.D Martinez. Martinez is hitting .398 with 15 HRs and 31 RBI over his last 23 games.

With two teams so familiar with each other I can honestly see this game going either way. I like the Rockies value at +165 because I definitely think Colorado has better than a 38% chance of winning this game.

Straight up without any odds or if I was taking part in a pick ‘em I would take Arizona. But due to the value I do not like Arizona at -165. I think Arizona would be more worthy as a -130 favorite here.

If Greinke can not go the distant and if Colorado can keep this game with-in a run or two, I can see a dramatic comeback in the late innings. I am taking a chance based on value here.

My Pick: Colorado 5 Arizona 4 (Colorado Moneyline +165)

 

 

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