The Bowling Green Falcons have not been good this season, however 11 points is way too many to expect Buffalo to cover by. These programs have meet the last 12 season and 14 times all time. Buffalo has only beaten Bowling Green 3 times all-time with the biggest margin of victory being 6 points in 2008.
Bowling Green has won 6 straight against Buffalo overall and 6 straight at Buffalo.
As for this season BGSU is only 2-7 against the spread, but those two wins came in their only two conference road games thus far. Buffalo is 6-3 against the spread. However, overall Bowling Green is 2-3 in the MAC and Buffalo is 1-4. These teams have played four common opponents, BGSU is 2-2 S/U against those opponents and Buffalo is 1-3. Both teams defeated Kent State. Buffalo defeated Kent 27-13, Bowling Green defeated Kent 44-16 last week.
Look neither team is good, but I am taking the Bowling Falcons + 11 here
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