NFL Week 13 Free Pick
The Cleveland Browns 0-11 and Los Angeles Chargers 5-6 will face each other Sunday in a rematch from last season. Currently both teams are headed in opposite directions when it comes to momentum. The Browns have been historically terrible, with a 1-29 record in their 30 games overall. While the Chargers have now gone 5-2 over their last seven games, after a 0-4 start, and are very much alive in the AFC West playoff picture. However, the Charges are the only team to lose to the Browns since Dec. 13, 2015. The Chargers were defeated by the Browns 20-17, in Cleveland on week 16 last season.
The Browns will look for a spark with the freakishly talented wide receiver Josh Gordon expected to return. What is unexpected is how effective Gordon will be. Gordon has not played in at regular season game since Dec. 21, 2014, still the Chargers will definitely need to know where he is on the field at all times.
Currently the Chargers are 14 point favorites. I am staying away from the spread here. Although 14 points is high, you will not catch me advising anyone to use their money to bet on the Browns.
Cleveland has been terrible both straight up and against the spread all the way around. Cleveland is 6-20-1 over their last 27 games against the AFC and 5-15-1 against the spread in their last 21 road games. This season the Browns are 2-9 against the spread, worst in the NFL.
I do not expect the Chargers to take the Browns lightly at all, who wants to be the only team to lose to the Browns twice over the last 31 games the Browns have played?
My recommended play here is the OVER. If you like the Chargers against the spread, then you have to lean towards the over, unless you think Cleveland scores lest than 14 points. Even if you feel like betting on the Browns, which I don’t recommend, look at the over as well.
The over is 5-1 in Browns games away from Cleveland this season. This includes the 4-1 over/under record in true road games, plus the neutral field game in London that went over as well. Seeing that the Over is 0-5 in Browns home games this season, this team has clearly been a team to bet the over on when on the road. The only Cleveland road game that went under this season was week two, when the Browns fell to the Ravens 24-10, on their first road test of the season. Since then the Browns have allowed at least 30 points in their last five games away from Cleveland.
The Chargers rank fifth in the NFL in positive turnover margin while the Browns rank dead last. The Chargers have a lot to play for here and due to losing to the Browns last season, expect Los Angeles to come out even more motivated. I expect over 30 points from the Chargers here. On the other side, Browns quarter back Deshone Kizer has started to play better as of late, and the Browns should be good for at least 14 points. I predict Chargers 34 Browns 20 , however I am only playing the over/under, not the point spread.
Get Sports Strong Pick: OVER 42.5
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