Dec. 19 Boca Raton Bowl: Akron Zips (7-6) vs Florida Atlantic Owls (10-3)

The Las Vegas bookmakers believe that this will be the biggest mismatch among all of the bowl games. The Conference USA champion Florida Atlantic Owls are currently are a 22.5 point favorite against the Mid-American Conference runner up Akron Zips. The line originally opened up with the Owls as a 17 point favorite, which would have been the best time to make a play if you like the Owls.

Both teams are 9-4 against the spread this season. FAU is 8-2 ATS as a favorite, however they were only greater than a 20 point favorite once this season and failed to cover in a 31-12 win over Charlotte on Nov. 25. FAU also failed to cover against the spread in a 34-31 loss in their one game against a Mid-American Conference opponent this season, the Owls were a 1.5 point underdog heading into that game.

Akron defeated the one common opponent that these two teams had, Buffalo 21-20 on Oct. 28. Akron was 6-3 as an underdog against the spread this season.

This match-up to me has similarities to the way Akron matched up with Mid-American Conference Champion Toledo. Toledo defeated Akron 48-21 on October 21 and then again 45-28 in the conference championship game.

Akron has only averaged 329 yards per game this season which ranks them 118th out 130 FBS teams and ten of their 13 games have gone under the Vegas points total this season. FAU ranks 14th in yards per game this season. The over/under is 6-7 in Owls games this season.

The Owls are 2-6 in their last eight non-conference games and the Zips are 6-1 in their last seven games against teams with winning records. Overall I am not recommending playing this game. I expect Florida Atlantic win, but for Akron to cover. I’m not sure how high the Owls motivation will be to face the Zips in at hime, and they will need to be motivated to win by more than three touchdowns. Still, Akron does not match-up with Florida Atlantic well enough for me to recommend betting on the them either.