APRIL 11 MLB FREE PICK
Yesterday was our worst MLB day so far this season going 0-2. We are currently now 8-5 on the season, still up 5.8 units. Here is our play for Wednesday April 11.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians 6:10pm EST
Projected Starters: Tigers: Zimmerman (0-0, 8.71 ERA) at Indians: Carrasco (2-0, 5.40 ERA)
We took a chance on the Tigers last night as a +182 underdog against the Indians, and the Tigers fell 2-1. I really thought yesterday’s game was good value and the second best chance the Tigers would have at taking at least one game in this four game series. Stranger things have happened, but tonight’s match-up is not set up well for the Tigers.
The Indians are 11-1 in Carrasco’s last 12 starts against the Tigers. Last season in six starts against Detroit, Carrasco was 4-1 with a 1.82 earned run average. Carrasco’s one loss to Detroit came in a 4-1 game on April 16, 2017 where Tiger’s pitcher Matt Boyd out-dueled him.
Unlike Boyd, the Tiger’s projected stater Jordan Zimmerman has not been able to put together quality starts against Cleveland in his past. Zimmerman is 0-4 with an ERA of 10.88 in his career against the Tribe. Zimmerman’s first two starts this season have also left little reason for optimism. So far this year he has allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs over only 10 1/3 innings of work.
My biggest concern here working against the Indians is the fact that Cleveland has only scored a total of 14 runs, and no more than three runs total in any game, over their last seven games played overall. But Zimmerman may be just what the doctor ordered for the Tribe bats to get going.
Detroit has not been an offensive juggernaut themselves so far. The Tigers have already been shutout three times this season and limited to just one run in two other games.
My pick: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123) Two Units
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