NCAA Thursday Night Football Pick: Georgia Southern at Texas State Prediction Oct. 11, 2018

 

Georgia Southern at Texas State

My Pick Georgia Southern -17  *Five Units

This feels like a blow out to me, I actually had Georgia State -23 in this game.  So why is the line only 17 points?

On paper Georgia Southern is 0-6 against the spread in their last six road games against a team with a losing home record. Georgia Southern is also only 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games against losing teams. Those numbers are particularly bad due to Georgia State finishing 2-10 overall last season.
Despite a terrible 2017, Georgia Southern is a perfect 5-0 against the spread this season.  Straight up the Eagles are 4-0 at home and 0-1 on the road, but that road defeat was 38-7 to Clemson in a game that the Eagles trailed 24-7 early in the fourth quarter. Georgia State is also 4-1 against the spread in their last five conference games overall dating back to last season.

Texas State is 1-4 on the season straight up, with the win coming over Texas Southern of the SWAC 36-20.

Against the spread the Texas State Bobcats are 1-3-1 this season overall and just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as a double digit underdog.

As for common opponents, Georgia Southern is coming off of a 48-13 win on Saturday against a South Alabama team that defeated Texas State 41-31 on September 15.

Overall I like Georgia Southern here by three touchdowns.

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